Harris X / Scott Rasmussen poll, 5/13: Biden 39% Sanders 20% Warren 8% Harris 6%

[highplainsdem]

Last edited Mon May 13, 2019, 11:00 PM - Edit history (1)

https://scottrasmussen.com/democratic-primary-polling/

Former Vice President Joe Biden is the top choice for 39% of Democratic voters and Democratic leaning Independents. A ScottRasmussen.com national survey found that Senator Bernie Sanders is preferred by 20% followed by Senator Elizabeth Warren at 8% and Senator Kamala Harris at 6%.

The survey of 2,207 Democratic voters and Democratic leaning Independents was conducted from May 8-13, 2019. Regardless of who they want to win, 60% expect that Biden will be the party’s nominee.

These results are not directly comparable to our previous survey because earlier surveys did not include Independents. Additionally, the question wording is not the same as the previous survey. Among Democrats only, the latest survey shows Biden leading Sanders 40% to 19% (see full crosstab results).

Data released earlier showed that more than 70% of Democrats would be satisfied with any of those hopefuls.

Biden is currently the only Democrat who leads President Trump in general election match-ups. He also leads all Democratic candidates in terms of Social Media support.

-snip-

[LongtimeAZDem]

1. While the numbers are in line with other polls, I don't trust Rasmussen

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. Scott Rasmussen sold his polling outfit years ago.

Those numbers are accumulated by Harris polling.

[LongtimeAZDem]

6. Did not know. Thanks!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. You're welcome.

The national survey of 2,207 Registered Democrats and Democratic Leaning Independents was conducted May 8-13, 2019 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a polling company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology). The sample included 1,851 Democrats and 356 Independents. It has a 3.1 percentage point Margin of Error with a 95% level of confidence.

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports®

[highplainsdem]

8. His site calls these polls SR polls.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. REPRISE

The national survey of 2,207 Registered Democrats and Democratic Leaning Independents was conducted May 8-13, 2019 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a polling company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology). The sample included 1,851 Democrats and 356 Independents. It has a 3.1 percentage point Margin of Error with a 95% level of confidence.

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports®

[highplainsdem]

10. Okay. I changed the subject lines of my threads.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. No problem.

[Liberty Belle]

2. I'd like to see polls in the states that vote early, which includes California now.

Doesn't matter what a national poll shows. Whoever wins California in the March primary will have 416 delegates.

The total needed to win the nomination is 1,885, a majority of the 3,768 pledged delegates. (There are additional unpledged delegates who would vote only if no candidate wins the nomination outright at the convention.)

So California accounts for 22% of the total pledged delegates needed to win. Guess who is from California? Kamala Harris, who is likely to carry the state barring some major gaffe. Should a gaffe occur, liberal CA would most likely swing to another progressive candidate such as Warren or even Sanders who had a well organized campaign here before. Biden, a more moderate establishment candidate, could be expected to fare less well in California than in places like the midwest.

So it won't be just Iowa, New Hampshire, etc. being early iinfluences on the outcome. Voters tend to get on the bandwagon. They want to pick a winner, and they will be closely watching the early primaries this year. They may abandon a candidate who is trailing far behind front runners after the early primaries.

California moving its primary from June to the first weekend in March, Super Tuesday, could be a game changer. The only states to vote earlier are Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.

On the other hand, Texas, another delegate-rich state, also votes on Super Tuesday which might be expected to boost Beto.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/us/elections/2020-presidential-election-calendar.html

[Scurrilous]

3. ...

[highplainsdem]

4. kick