Some words of encouragement to the supporters of Joe Biden who is leading in the polls

[mtnsnake]

Don't despair! At least not yet! Even though history tells us that the front runner this early in a campaign almost never comes out on top, there's still a chance that Joe could prove history wrong and still end up winning the nomination, so don't give up hope just yet because you never know what's going to happen when all is said and done.

I agree that it's going to be extremely difficult once the debates begin to for anyone to go up against the likes of Warren, Sanders, Harris, Buttigieg, Booker, Klobuchar, O'Rourke, Inslee, Swalwell, and a host of other really sharp candidates we have this time around, but I honestly think Joe has a very good shot at holding his own among them.

I can tell that a lot of folks are worried about Joe being able to hold onto the lead once the debates begin, and yes, we all know that the hardest thing to hold onto is a big lead. However, with your encouragement and support, I think Joe Biden could still end up having as good a chance as anyone to stay leading in the polls even though the odds are highly against it. It's going to be an interesting ride for sure, so best of luck to Joe and all the other candidates as well. Never give up!

[still_one]

1. Not sure who is more worried about this, because I don't think it is Biden or his supporters

[Cha]

8. I asked him for one example

because I've never seen anyone say that.

In fact I've seen Biden supporters talk about Biden's debate with Paul Ryan as an example of why they're not worried.

[mtnsnake]

13. him

[Cha]

16. Oh, I'm

sorry! I shall edit... thank you!

[mtnsnake]

17. haha, no probem, Cha

all is good!

[LakeArenal]

27. Me,worried?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. Don't despair

1) Every former Democratic vice president in the post WW ll era who has run for his party's nomination has won it. *

2) The larger the lead, even at this point, the larger the chance of it holding.







*HHH won it in 68. He didn't win it when he ran again in 72.

[pnwmom]

3. You're looking at a teeny-tiny sample size. n/t

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. Any port in a storm.

[mtnsnake]

7. Who were the post WWII VP's who ran and won?

Johnson became VP when Kennedy was assassinated and Ford became President when Nixon resigned.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. Gore and Humphrey

On the Republican side Nixon and Bush. In fact the only former vice president in the post WW ll era who ran for his party's nomination and lost was Dan Quayle.

[mtnsnake]

11. Oh okay. I thought you were talking about former VP's who ran and won the general election

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. That would be Bush and Nixon, albeit Nixon won it on his second try.

[NYMinute]

23. Also Walter Mondale nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

26. TY

3/3

[Cha]

5. Give us one example

of who's worried.

Because it never even crossed my mind.

[mtnsnake]

10. Well, for one, I'm worried, Cha

because I think it's important that Joe Biden continues to remain as a top contender, but I aslo know that early leads usually never last. It would've been better for him if he built such a lead later on than so early.

[Cha]

15. It is what it is. It's the people(Voters)

who are giving him that early lead.

And, just because you're worried doesn't mean "a lot of folks are worried about Joe being able to hold onto the lead once the debates begin.. ".

I'm not worried.

[still_one]

18. I agree with your assessment Cha

[MrsCoffee]

21. So much concern.

Except from the people we are told are concerned, lol.

[Demsrule86]

19. Biden is a great debater. And there are too many candidates for much of a chance for lower

tier candidates. I think you need to consider who the voters for Biden are...I do not enjoy listening to a laundry list of policies most that have a snowballs chance in hell.

[Funtatlaguy]

6. After the debates, there may be some coalescing.

Right now, Sanders, Warren, Pete, Beto are vying in the same fishing hole for a combination of the youngest and most progressive parts of the party.
They can’t all slice up that pie heading to Iowa or Biden will skate to the nomination.
If three dropped out by August, the remaining one could then take on Biden and Harris and maybe one or two others.

[aikoaiko]

12. The biggest threat to a Biden win is Biden.

His strength is that he has few fucks to give.

Its also his weakness and will say things that please him, but can diminish his candidacy.

[LakeArenal]

28. That flub shit is history.

There’s NOTHING Joe could say at this point that would make anything Dump says look better.

AND. “The Big effin deal”.
WAS a big effin deal”. And no one on our side saw it as a flub.

Everyone will flub. Beto said he was born to be president. Dumb. But who cares.
Maybe he was. He never said he was born to win.

[dalton99a]

20. Talk of inevitability on anything

leads to complacency and has a nasty habit of biting Democrats in the ass

[WeekiWater]

22. One would have to look all of the way back to 2016!

[NYMinute]

24. This is a projection

The OP is worried about Biden leading and is consoling self by projecting the worry on to others.

Also, isn't it about time for the OP to make the preference for Bernie Sanders known? It is evident to everyone anyway.

[NurseJackie]

25. Is being worried about Biden "a thing"??

[Gothmog]

29. Joe Biden's early state polling looks more like those of past winners than losers

It is still very early but Biden's numbers are encouraging. This is from Harry Enten https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/14/politics/joe-biden-state-national-polls-frontrunner/index.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fcnn_allpolitics+%28RSS%3A+CNN+-+Politics%29

Leading in all the early states at this point has historically been a fairly good sign. Dating back to 1980 (the year in which we start getting solid state polling data), nine candidates in competitive primaries have led in polling around this point in the cycle in both Iowa and New Hampshire.

All but one candidate (Ted Kennedy in 1980) who led in Iowa and New Hampshire would go on to win their party's nomination. The eight eventual nominees were Ronald Reagan in 1980, Walter Mondale in 1984, George H.W. Bush in 1988, Bob Dole in 1996, Al Gore in 2000, George W. Bush in 2000, Mitt Romney in 2012 and Hillary Clinton in 2016. All these candidates also held advantages in Nevada and South Carolina in years in which early polling was available and those states held early contests.
A number of national polling leaders who would go on to lose the nomination are not listed above. Joe Lieberman led in neither Iowa or New Hampshire in 2004. Rudy Giuliani trailed in Iowa, Nevada and South Carolina at this point in the 2008 cycle. Hillary Clinton was behind John Edwards in Iowa and was neck-in-neck with Barack Obama in South Carolina in May 2007. Scott Walker, who was briefly leading nationally with much less support than Biden, followed Jeb Bush in May 2015 New Hampshire polling.

The big picture here is that, at least in early state polling, Biden doesn't have the obvious weakness that many frontrunners who failed to get the nomination in earlier years had.
Instead, Biden's lead in the early states is consistent with his frontrunner status, who at least for the moment is doing the things he needs to do in order to win.....

Second, Biden's doing well with voters who are tuned into the race. Early state voters are the most likely to be paying attention to the race right now. They're the most likely to pick up on momentum for a candidate first. Biden's polling as well among highly enthusiastic Democrats as he is among Democrats at-large. In New Hampshire, Biden is ahead of Sanders, who is from next door Vermont and won the New Hampshire primary by more than 20 points in 2016, and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who is also from next door.