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Democratic Primaries

brooklynite

(94,452 posts) Tue May 14, 2019, 03:33 PM May 2019

3

Poll: Biden has a small edge over Sanders in Nevada

Nevada Independent

Former Vice-President Joe Biden has a slight lead over Sen. Bernie Sanders in Nevada, but no one is above 30 percent in a new poll by Change Research and shared with The Nevada Independent.

The poll was taken last week of 480 likely caucus-goers with a margin of error purported to be 4.4 percent (I’ll get to this later).

Before I move to my analysis of the numbers and the poll’s methodology, here are the results:

Joe Biden, 29 percent

Bernie Sanders, 24 percent

Pete Buttigieg, 13 percent

Elizabeth Warren, 12 percent

Kamala Harris, 11 percent

Beto O’Rourke, 4 percent

Cory Booker, 2 percent

Everyone else is at 1 percent or 0 percent.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

6 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Poll: Biden has a small edge over Sanders in Nevada (Original Post) brooklynite May 2019 OP

That doesn't seem that slight. RelativelyJones May 2019 #1

K&R. Missed this yesterday. Was just about to post the article myself, but a search turned your highplainsdem May 2019 #2

5 points isn't so small in that range. Hortensis May 2019 #3

Spam deleted by MIR Team isidisbasin May 2019 #4

5% is now considered slight? I guess it's all relative to the necessary narratives being thrown out. LanternWaste May 2019 #5

With an MOE of 4.4% a lead of 5% is on the slight side of life dsc May 2019 #6

RelativelyJones

(898 posts)

1. That doesn't seem that slight.

Reply to brooklynite (Original post)

Tue May 14, 2019, 04:34 PM

May 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

highplainsdem

(48,956 posts)

2. K&R. Missed this yesterday. Was just about to post the article myself, but a search turned your

Reply to brooklynite (Original post)

Wed May 15, 2019, 11:59 AM

May 2019

thread up.

I do want to add that Jon Ralston is very skeptical of polling in Nevada, including this poll.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Hortensis

(58,785 posts)

3. 5 points isn't so small in that range.

Reply to brooklynite (Original post)

Wed May 15, 2019, 12:13 PM

May 2019

Nevada seems to be running a little behind, though. The "NO deja vu all over again" plummet for Sanders hasn't hit yet.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Response to brooklynite (Original post)

isidisbasin Spam deleted by MIR Team

LanternWaste

(37,748 posts)

5. 5% is now considered slight? I guess it's all relative to the necessary narratives being thrown out.

Reply to brooklynite (Original post)

Wed May 15, 2019, 12:24 PM

May 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

dsc

(52,155 posts)

6. With an MOE of 4.4% a lead of 5% is on the slight side of life

Reply to brooklynite (Original post)

Wed May 15, 2019, 12:27 PM

May 2019

it is barely outside the MOE if you think of it as one direction and within if you think of the MOE as the bi directional thing it is.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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