Poll: Biden has a small edge over Sanders in Nevada

[brooklynite]

Nevada Independent

Former Vice-President Joe Biden has a slight lead over Sen. Bernie Sanders in Nevada, but no one is above 30 percent in a new poll by Change Research and shared with The Nevada Independent.

The poll was taken last week of 480 likely caucus-goers with a margin of error purported to be 4.4 percent (I’ll get to this later).

Before I move to my analysis of the numbers and the poll’s methodology, here are the results:

Joe Biden, 29 percent

Bernie Sanders, 24 percent

Pete Buttigieg, 13 percent

Elizabeth Warren, 12 percent

Kamala Harris, 11 percent

Beto O’Rourke, 4 percent

Cory Booker, 2 percent

Everyone else is at 1 percent or 0 percent.

[RelativelyJones]

1. That doesn't seem that slight.

[highplainsdem]

2. K&R. Missed this yesterday. Was just about to post the article myself, but a search turned your

thread up.


I do want to add that Jon Ralston is very skeptical of polling in Nevada, including this poll.

[Hortensis]

3. 5 points isn't so small in that range.

Nevada seems to be running a little behind, though. The "NO deja vu all over again" plummet for Sanders hasn't hit yet.

[LanternWaste]

5. 5% is now considered slight? I guess it's all relative to the necessary narratives being thrown out.

[dsc]

6. With an MOE of 4.4% a lead of 5% is on the slight side of life

it is barely outside the MOE if you think of it as one direction and within if you think of the MOE as the bi directional thing it is.