New May 12-14 Economist/YouGov poll, small changes, increasingly worrisome age divide

[highplainsdem]

First of all, a link to my thread about last week's poll, where the OP links to the PDF and gives the page number for those poll results:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287111009



Here's a link to this week's (May 12-14) poll:

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/fs1r87zj1f/econTabReport.pdf

The section on which Democratic candidates people are considering (multiple choices allowed) is on page 180.

I found it thanks to this tweet, which has a screenshot of that page:

Link to tweet

Details to note here:

The top candidates are all down slightly from last week. Biden's down 1 point, Sanders down 3, Warren down 1, Harris down 2.

However, although Sanders dropped the most among those top candidates, his support among the youngest group of voters, age 18-29, increased by a few points -- while he lost a point and Biden gained several points among the 30-44 age group.

Which means that the Sanders campaign is splitting off that youngest group of voters even farther from the rest of the party.

I'm seeing Sanders supporters on Twitter pushing this divisiveness a lot, insisting that the youngest group of voters is more important than any other. We see echoes of that here.

This is NOT good for the Democratic Party and our chances of winning the GE.

[MineralMan]

1. What percentage of the voting electorate is the 18-29 year old demographic?

Do you know?

That's an important thing to know. Looking at the three other age groups, Biden's doing just fine. Maybe that's enough...

[Indygram]

2. Thanks to Beto O'Rourke those 18-29 year old voters in Texas showed up at a 500% increase

He could do the same on a national level if democrats decide to actually have a legitimate primary and keep an open mind about all of the amazing candidates that are running instead of responding and reacting to fear of Trump.

[MineralMan]

4. That, however, does not answer my question.

I can see a nationwide chart of what percentage of people in different age groups actually vote. I posted that chart, which shows those percentages historically. What I'm asking is how many people who voted in each age group there are. It makes an enormous difference.

In any case, Beto O'Rourke still lost his Senate race in Texas, despite that increase in turnout by the 18-29 age group. That also demonstrates something.

[highplainsdem]

6. "IF democrats decide to actually have a legitimate primary"??? We're having one. Just because

your favorite isn't leading in the polls doesn't mean it isn't legitimate.

I like Beto, and it's great that he nearly defeated Cruz in Texas. But he isn't polling all that well nationally, including with younger voters.

And as is being pointed out elsewhere here, 18-29 year olds are a small slice of the electorate.

[John Fante]

7. Actually have a legitimate primary?

Are you implying that "Bernie wuz robbed" in 2016?

[highplainsdem]

3. According to this article in Vox, they were 9% of the Dem electorate in 2018, 14% in 2016:

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/11/12/18083014/2018-election-results-turnout


Only 8% in 2014. Turnout for that age group is usually much higher in presidential elections, but they're still only a small slice of the pie.

The 30-39 age group made up 15% of the electorate in 2016.

40-49, 16%

50-64, 30%

65+, 25%.


So arguing that the youngest age group of the Democratic electorate should have their preferences considered most important leaves out 86% of the electorate.

But that's an argument that's unfortunately being made by many supporters and surrogates of the more leftwing candidates.

[MineralMan]

5. Thanks. I actually did have those numbers, but wanted

people to think about it a bit more.

As the numbers indicate, 86% of voting Democrats are NOT in the 18-29 age group. Now, perhaps younger voters will surprise us and defy historical trends in 2020. Or, perhaps not. If there is a massive increase, though, I'd expect that to also be reflected in the other age groups. In fact, I hope very much that happens.

Every age group matters in elections. No question about it. However, neglecting a large majority of voters to court a small minority of voters is not rational. We have to address ALL voters, regardless of age, and hope they turn out in higher numbers than ever. That is the key to retaking control of our federal government.

[highplainsdem]

10. That includes Republicans. Biden has nearly as high unfavorables with Republicans included

because Republicans don't want Trump beaten.

[Loki Liesmith]

9. Small changes in subgroups

are generally not something we should base conclusions on.

Even large changes is subgroups are problematic.