Poll: Biden leads Trump by double digits in Pennsylvania

[left-of-center2012]

A new poll shows former Vice President Joe Biden has opened up a big lead over President Trump in Pennsylvania, a Rust Belt battleground state that will play a pivotal role in determining the outcome of the 2020 election.

A state-level survey by Quinnipiac University finds Biden at 53 percent and Trump at 42 percent in a head-to-head match-up in Pennsylvania.

Trump has a narrow 4 point advantage among male respondents, but Biden holds a 24 point lead among women -- 60 percent to 36 percent. Among white voters, Biden leads 49 percent to 45 percent, but he leads among nonwhite voters by a whopping 70 percent to 27 percent.

Trump and Biden pulled at least 90 percent support from within their own parties, while the former vice president held a 14 point advantage among independents, leading 51 percent to 37 percent.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/443856-poll-biden-leads-trump-by-double-digits-in-pennsylvania

[Chakaconcarne]

1. Gee...that's not an unfamiliar scenario now is it?

[NCjack]

2. Trump to Putin: "Please prepare to help me bigly, again!!! I love you!!!"

[More_Cowbell]

3. Wow, those women and non-white voter numbers!

Crazy.

[NewJeffCT]

4. 27% of non white voters prefer Trump?

who are these people?

[Lucky Luciano]

5. Hispanics are somehow 1/3 in favor of fuckface. nt

[Celerity]

6. Caudillismo

The Strongman

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caudillo

A caudillo is a type of personalist leader wielding military and political power. There is no precise definition of caudillo, which is often used interchangeably with "dictator" and "strongman". The term is historically associated with Spain, and with Spanish America after virtually all of that region won independence in the early nineteenth century.

The roots of caudillismo may be tied to the framework of rule in medieval and early modern Spain during the Reconquest from the Moors. Spanish conquistadors such as Hernán Cortés and Francisco Pizarro exhibit characteristics of the caudillo, being successful military leaders, having mutual reliance of the leader and their supporters, and rewarding them for their loyalty. During the colonial era, the Spanish crown asserted its power and established a plethora of bureaucratic institutions that prevented such personalist rule. Historian John Lynch argues that the rise of caudillos in Spanish America is rooted not in the distant Spanish past but in the immediate context of the Spanish American wars of independence. Those wars threw off colonial rule and left a power vacuum in the early nineteenth century. Caudillos were very influential in the history of Spanish America and have a legacy that has influenced political movements in the modern era.

snip

[Lucky Luciano]

7. In other words, toxic masculinity transcends race except for black people who don't fall for this bs

[Celerity]

9. toxic masculinity is unfortunately alive and well in our (I am part black) community as well

In 2016, 14 % of black men voted for Trump, versus less than 2 percent of black women.

Even in 2018, African-American women were more likely than black men to vote for the Democrat, by a 94 percent to 84 percent difference.

Misogyny and TM would probably help partially explain this as well:


Mostly black neighborhoods voted more Republican in 2016 than in 2012

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2017/09/25/mostly-black-neighborhoods-voted-more-republican-in-2016-than-in-2012/

snip

Trump earned less support from black Americans than any Republican in 40 years, except those who ran against Obama. But a small uptick in support for Trump vs. Romney combined with less support for Clinton means that Obama’s 87-point margin became an 80-point margin for Clinton. That mattered.

Notice, too, that exit polling suggests a decrease in how much of the electorate was black in 2016. The Census Bureau collects data on that, too, which the University of Florida’s Michael McDonald used to estimate turnout percentages and composition of the electorate for the past 30 years.



In 2016, the turnout rate for black Americans dropped about eight percentage points, McDonald estimates — meaning that that many fewer black Americans who were registered to vote did so. That’s a lower rate than in 2004. The percentage of white voters turning out increased slightly.


snip



much more on this general subject (A-A turnout) here

https://www.democraticunderground.com/128736610#post18

[Lucky Luciano]

10. So I stand corrected! Toxic masculinity transcends race w/o exception!! nt

[Celerity]

11. unfortunately so, I have yet to see any current population group of any large size where is does not

Maybe some of the basically 'undisturbed' indigenous tribes in the Amazon basin or remote Pacific islands?

[isidisbasin]

8. Well 30 % are racists...even amongs non white voters.

[Cha]

12. KR!

[Stuart G]

13. k and r

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

14. Good

Can't say I'm surprised