How Will Democrats' Move Away From Caucuses Affect The 2020 Race?

[Gothmog]

I am so very glad that the Democratic Party is getting rid of caucuses

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At least 10 states are planning to switch from a caucus to a primary in 2020. As things stand, just two states — Iowa and Nevada — have firm plans to caucus again. Two other 2016 caucus states — Maine and Wyoming — are still up in the air. Maine lawmakers may establish a government-run primary, in which case the Maine Democratic Party plans to move to a primary. And Wyoming Democrats are still ironing out some details. (The state party committee told FiveThirtyEight they plan to release an updated plan this summer.).....

Of course, increased voter turnout could change which candidates benefit — or suffer — from that voting system. “The conventional wisdom is that caucuses favor more ideological candidates,” said Kamarck. Understandably, then, of the 2020 Democratic presidential field, Sanders is the candidate who’s often named as most likely to take a hit. In 2016, he won all 10 caucus states that are moving to some type of primary in 2020, though the field was far smaller in 2016, when most caucuses were head-to-head matchups between Sanders and Clinton. That said, Sanders probably owes some of his success in the caucuses to the fact that these low-turnout events tend to reward candidates who have strongly ideological and deeply committed supporters, and the move toward more primaries could erode that advantage.

“Caucuses benefit candidates who have strong grassroots campaigns but are also organized to get those grassroots supporters there,” said Jewitt. But since primaries are easier to participate in, candidates who have a bigger base (even if those voters are less engaged) may benefit from the format change. For example, in 2016, Nebraska and Washington held Democratic primaries in addition to their caucuses, though the caucuses determined delegate allocation and the primaries didn’t count. While Sanders handily won the caucus in each state, Clinton won the higher-turnout primaries.....

So to recap, all we can say for sure about the move toward primaries over caucuses is that turnout will likely be higher in 2020 than in 2016 for the states that switch — and that could produce some interesting results.

[samnsara]

1. im sure we will be mailed a ballot....

...like the rest of the elections in wash state they are all mail in...pre paid return postage too!

[samnsara]

2. i loved the caucuses and i will miss them but they was fodder for bullying..

...esp last election. That is what turned me off on them.

[NurseJackie]

13. I can imagine that excitement was part of the attraction for many...

... but aside from the bullying, I was always put-off by the fact that the sanctity of the secret ballot was thrown out the window, AND, the fact that the brief window of time that the caucus activities were actually taking place meant that many people were excluded from the process and their voices weren't heard. (People who work a late shift, or a second-shift; people who are caregivers; etc.)

I get that it's cheaper for the state parties, but I hope that someone can find ways to make it financially feasible to eliminate them completely.

[qazplm135]

3. all of our primaries should be all mail ballots

removes any and all impediments to voting.

[DURHAM D]

4. Well, at least I won't have to squeeze into a room

where half of the men are wearing it on the outside. By it I sort of mean their guns.

[Peacetrain]

5. we have caucuses in iowa.. and have supported them for years..but after the last election

I would just as soon see them either gone.. or do it the way the republicans do it.. with a straw poll.. on the Democratic side we have the 15% viability rule.. if you do not get 15% of the vote at your caucus place then you have to move to another candidate who does or leave the caucus.. ... problematic with that.. is all caucuses are not of equal size.. you can have 200 in one and 8 in another.. and it skews everything.. We had the first contentious caucus I have ever been in in 2016.. one group would not let the selected members of another candidate finish their speeches about their candidates.. and its all volunteer.. it was overwhelming for a group of older women trying to contain a group of boisterous young men who bullied the hell out of everybody.. what a nightmare

[George II]

6. The best thing about it is that people won't be bullied at the caucus anymore or....

....have to sit around for an extended period of time.

The next step would be to do away with open or "semi-open/closed" primaries. Let only republicans vote for their nominee and let only Democrats vote for their nominee.

[Buzz cook]

7. Its a mistake

Caucuses are not just about nominating presidential candidates. They are also when a mass of the great unwashed can effect policy and deal directly with political officials.

It is where an individual citizen has a bigger voice than just his ballot.

I had the honor of being a delegate to my district and county political conventions, only because I was at a caucus and was selected by my peers to go on.
There a thousands of people like me that got the same opportunity and with the end of the caucus system they will never have that opportunity again. Delegates will be chosen by local Democratic parties.

We will be eliminating the chance that an average citizen will have a direct effect on our democracy.

People wrongly point to Sanders popularity in the caucus system as a weakness. Yes well organized activists can control a caucus meeting. I saw it in 84 and again in 16. But that is not a fault it is a strength. The fault lays in other democrats not being able to organize as well or generate that kind of enthusiasm.
Getting six people from each precinct to support your candidate is a pretty low bar. From my experience, that;s all it takes, six people.

Yet here we are ending a system that has worked for decades because Sanders could get those six people and Clinton (who I was a delegate for) could not.

If we had continued the caucus system I think there wouldn't be a repeat of 2016s dominance by Sanders. More people are active now and people are used to going out and supporting their candidates.

That leaves picking who chooses the nominee more completely in the hands of the party leadership.

[WhiskeyGrinder]

8. Minnesota moved to a primary for presidential preference but will still hold caucuses for party

business. Best of both worlds.

[Buzz cook]

9. Good for Minnesota

I hope lots of people there get involved.

[Gothmog]

12. Same for Texas

The primary determines how many delegates each candidate gets and these delegates are then selected at the state convention

[Gothmog]

11. You can still go to county and state conventions

I was part of the Obama voter protection team in 2008 and saw how caucuses could be gamed. Texas had the Texas two step where two-thirds of the delegates were selected by primary and one-third by caucuses held the same night of primary. Clinton won the primary but Obama got more delegates in Texas due to the caucuses.

I have been to the state conventions every year since 2008 and I was a delegate to the National Convention in Philadelphia.

I am glad that we got rid of caucuses

[MineralMan]

10. Minimally, really.

It might change a couple of states' delegations, but only marginally.