At this time years ago Lieberman was leading one year and Bill Clinton was at 6% another.

[LAS14]

Just saying. It's probably smart that 40% of DUers are waiting for more info. I've signed on for Buttigieg because I want him to make a strong showing as a trail blazer, but I don't really think he'll win the nomination.

[SouthernProgressive]

1. I'm surprised in those years that a field had even formed at this point. NT

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

2. You're probably right about Mayor Pete, but, I still wish him the best of luck.

Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[cannabis_flower]

3. Last election...

I liked Bernie Sanders and even donated a little to his campaign. I had wanted Elizabeth Warren to run and she didn't so I first supported Bernie. But Bernie didn't win and I voted for Hillary. This time since Elizabeth is running I'm supporting her unless I hear more information to change my mind.

[SouthernProgressive]

4. Just looked and I don't think Clinton announced until Oct 1992..

First primary was Feb 1992.

If that is correct then Clinton was polling at 6% over five months before announcing. Six months before his official announcement in Nov 1991.

[still_one]

11. LOL. I believe the only election where Joe LIeberman ran for President was 2004

[TwilightZone]

5. In neither case were there 22 candidates...

with one having nearly half the early vote.

There's really no comparison between this race and prior ones. Prior ones didn't have Trump; prior ones didn't have 22 major candidates by this time in the cycle (or ever); prior ones didn't have one candidate with nearly half the vote at this time in the cycle.

It's pretty much unprecedented, so comparisons to prior cycles don't really tell us anything of substance.

[kcr]

7. Well, the fact that we haven't even had our first debate yet is still relevant

Or the fact that no candidate would have had any votes by this time, this cycle or any, so not sure what you mean by that.

[shanny]

10. there's a lot more than two cases

of early frontrunners dropping well back in the actual primaries but, yes, 22 candidates (I wouldn't call them all "major" ) is unprecedented.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/5/16/1858217/-Which-presidential-candidates-enjoyed-mid-May-polling-leads-in-previous-cycles-Almost-none-who-won

I am hoping at least half the field ends up in the Cabinet of the new administration.

[Maru Kitteh]

6. Okay

But you may have noticed, this is not the 1990s.

[CTyankee]

8. Also, Clinton was a former governor (or maybe still governor) of Arkansas. Pete is great but

with not the years of experience that Clinton had as governor of Arkansas.

I agree with you about Pete. He has charm, smarts and strikes me as a fast learner as a mayor. He is a bright light in our party!

[wellst0nev0ter]

9. Hillary was the consistent frontrunner at this time in 2007

Hillary was the presumed candidate until Iowa happened.

Nothing is set in stone.

[StevieM]

12. She didn't start the race in January 2007 with the same lead that she would ultimately have.

She went out in the first 9 months of 2007 and built that lead up.

Obama started surging in late 2007 and was considered the likely winner of Iowa by the time it happened.

Once he won Iowa, the whole race was reset.

[Drunken Irishman]

14. It was also a two-person race between Hillary and Obama...

With Hillary's lead 10-13 points ahead of Obama in the polls - not something impossible to overcome.

Biden currently leads Bernie by 20+ points on average. That is a massive gap for so such a large field. It's due to a good amount of people not being undecided.

[Drunken Irishman]

13. The big difference is that no candidate - not even Hillary in '07 - has had the lead Biden has...

Lieberman led polls but with a very small amount of support. A good amount of Democrats remained undecided in 1992 and 2004. That isn't the case right now. Biden is currently pushing 40% in a sixteen-person race.

[MineralMan]

15. While it's true that anything can happen in politics,

there is a 24-candidate field this year. For one candidate to have 40% polling numbers is pretty much unprecedented in such a large field of candidates.

Yes, it's very early in the race. But, Joe Biden is a known quantity. Those who like him as the nominee now, would need some real hard information to change that viewpoint.

You can figure that 40% has beating Trump as their primary reason for supporting a former VP under Obama this early. They think he can win is the reason. Who else can offer that? Sanders? Nope. He lost in the primary to Hillary Clinton, and there's no evidence that enough people will turn out for him to ensure a Trump loss.

Warren? Well, she's nice and all, but she has no characteristics that ensure her win, either. Beto? Well, he lost the Senate race in his own state, so...

We could go right down the list and there's nobody who has a proven high likelihood of beating Donald Trump. Except for Joe Biden. He's the only candidate with White House experience. He's the only candidate with the long congressional record he has. He got the Presidential Medal of Freedom hung around his neck by President Barack Obama, who praised him almost embarrassingly when he gave him the medal. Guess who will champion Joe Biden after he gets the nomination. He'll also get solid support from Hillary Clinton, who remains grateful he didn't run in 2016 against her, thus handing the nomination to Bernie Sanders.

Joe Biden has a lot of important fans who will endorse him enthusiastically after the convention. Everyone knows Joe Biden.

And there is why recalling past primary seasons doesn't indicate much. None of them were like this one.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. Please post a poll where Joe Lieberman had 40% of the vote at on 5/18/2003

Thank you in advance.

[LongtimeAZDem]

17. At this time in 1187, the Christians held Jerusalem

which is about as relevant.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. You're killing me.