***Breakdown by race/gender in new Morning Consult Dem WH poll***

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Link to tweet

[Iliyah]

1. One thing I'm pretty sure of . . .

Whoever the Democratic Party's presidential candidate is, majority of the Afro-Americans will rally behind.

What happened to Latino/Latina's numbers?

[NurseJackie]

8. That's for sure... the AA and POC communities are completely REJECTING the BS campaign.

That's for sure... the AA and POC communities are completely REJECTING the BS campaign. BS can't even get AA and POC to attend a rally at a BLACK church, in an historically black neighborhood, in a MAJORITY BLACK city.

His rally in North Charleston, SC had so LITTLE ethnic diversity that it looked like he could have been somewhere Vermont. In fact, based on the statistics, the demographics at that rally was even whiter than Vermont.

It's obvious that the AA and POC community are rejecting BS and the BS campaign. BS just doesn't connect with that community. The BS message just isn't resonating.

And his recent rally in BIRMINGHAM, Alabama... looked like it could have been BURLINGTON, Vermont.

All I'm saying is, with such a humiliating rejection by the AA and POC communities, and without their vote, BS doesn't stand a chance. If they're staying away from in at the rallies, they're going to stay away from him at the polls on election day.

[masmdu]

15. Um...you do see that Sanders is 2nd in all groups, right?

Did you look at the numbers?
How is that "completely rejecting"?
Looks to me like, if not Biden then Sanders. Ahead of all others except Biden.

[DownriverDem]

16. I only

support true members of the Democratic Party.

[ZeroSomeBrains]

20. I guess true members of the democratic party

Support a Republican over a dem running in Michigan.

[LanternWaste]

24. Keep guessing... as it's the best you have.

Or continue pretending what others mean... that's some pretty substantive analysis as well.

(Dogma often blinds us to rational thought. That's a feature of it, not a bug...)

[ZeroSomeBrains]

25. I guess I pretended that Biden refused to support a dem running in Michigan then

What is the substantive analysis you are giving here? I guess rolling your eyes makes up for that loss of a House seat by a Democrat, right?

[padah513]

26. Maybe but

I've never heard of Biden tearing into the Democratic establishment while running as a Democratic candidate.

[ZeroSomeBrains]

27. Forgive me father I have sinned. I have Republican friends.

If that was said by Bernie the amount of pearl clutching by the people here would've been enormous. As for Bernie talking about the democratic establishment, I don't see what actual damage that is doing to the party. I vote blue no matter who in the general but still have differences of opinion on what Democratic leadership wants from time to time. It's healthy to be critical of those you support.

[MineralMan]

2. Biden's Double-Digit Lead in All Groups

is telling. Bernie Sanders is in second place in this poll, also in all groups shown. Why is he not doing better? The answer is simple. People who might otherwise be choosing him are clearly choosing other candidates. Not Biden, although he probably gets a few percentage points from people who would support Sanders if Biden were not in the race. But he is in the race, so that's neither here nor there.

Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris are high in the list below Sanders, but Booker and Buttigieg also are playing in there.

Still, Joe Biden holds a double digit lead over Sanders in all of those lists, and that seems to be holding quite well since he entered the race officially. Although he doesn't have a majority, his plurality is very strong, given the fact that there are 24 candidates in total.

We could look at other ethnic and age demographics, but the story looks a lot the same.

Since the 15% rule exists, those who get less than 15% of the vote in any district will not get any delegates assigned to them. That is going to be a major factor in this primary race. As long as people continue to support and vote for candidates down the list, it will be very likely that the candidate who wins a plurality of the votes with a double-digit margin will end up as the nominee next summer.

Of course, all of this could change over time. We'll have to wait and see.

[JaneQPublic]

3. Perhaps surprising, perhaps not.

While Biden leads with all groups, he does best with black women and worst with white men.

[NurseJackie]

4. "President Biden" ... now is a good time for people to get used to saying it.

I believe that Harris or Warren will be his VP choice. It definitely won't be BS. I doubt that BS would accept it anyway, it would kill him.

[SCantiGOP]

5. definitely won't be Bernie

Both white, both male, both old - not a chance.

[oldsoftie]

10. Dont rule out Abrahms from GA. Although it wouldnt be my 1st choice, i could see it.

She'd likely bring in ga from the red. Harris brings already blue california.
But there are surprises coming next year that we havent even considered yet

[NurseJackie]

12. She'd certainly do that!

I thought she had already said she wasn't interested. But... I suppose anyone could change their mind.

[oldsoftie]

28. EVERYONE says they're not interested. Like when they say they're not running, and then they DO!

[stonecutter357]

6. K&R

[Scurrilous]

7. K&R

[lunamagica]

9. K&R for visibility

[Honeycombe8]

11. Hmmm...the 2 with nat'l name recognition are first in every poll.

If it were just one or the other of them, but with both being at the top of every list, I think that means that the others aren't getting their names out enough. Also, the two in the lists that are after the top 2, are also next in line for name recognition in 2 of the lists.

Booker & Buttigieg stand out as being next in the list (after Biden & Sanders) in 2 of the lists, although their name recognition isn't near the top.

Name recognition is a big deal. It will be interesting to see if it stays this way or changes, as time goes by.

[Hortensis]

29. Agree. And the field's so big, the non-names aren't

getting the attention they need, and the nation needs them to have.

I don't like a puppy-litter mechanism of getting attention. #1 being both the biggest and most eager to make friends with strangers , #2 biting any who compete for attention.

[George Eliot]

13. Biden has lot of history and it's a long way to primaries.

"Joe Biden has more foreign policy experience than any other candidate in the sprawling 22-person Democratic primary field, but his 2002 vote in favor of the invasion of Iraq is already providing fodder to his rivals — and could pose problems with younger voters."

[link:https://www.politico.com/story/2019/05/15/joe-biden-iraq-war-vote-1322914|

[DownriverDem]

17. Move on

Why is it that BS folks go negative against Biden?

[Skya Rhen]

21. Biden voted for this - yes. And Bernie voted for the Crime Bill... glass houses...

[Skya Rhen]

22. Sanders' gun votes are again a potential liability among Democratic base - (glass houses, again)

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/sanders-gun-votes-are-again-potential-liability-among-democratic-base-n999326

[IronLionZion]

14. Everyone likes Biden

so I hope he chooses a more diverse VP

[marble falls]

18. One third of everyone likes Biden.

[DownriverDem]

19. Not

BS folks.

[Kurt V.]

23. i just read nate silver refer to morning consult as a b- poll. What's that mean and who decides?

i'll dig into that later. After my nap.