Democratic Primaries

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts) Thu May 23, 2019, 05:56 PM May 2019

BREAKING FIRST PRIMARY NEW HAMPSHIRE POLL Big Joe 33% Bernie 12% Elizabeth 11%

Biden
33%
Sanders
12%
Warren
11%
Buttigieg
7%
Harris
7%
O'Rourke
1%
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20190523_NH.pdf

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

31 replies

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***BREAKING FIRST PRIMARY NEW HAMPSHIRE POLL*** Big Joe 33% Bernie 12% Elizabeth 11% (Original Post) DemocratSinceBirth May 2019 OP

Still surprising that Sanders is ahead of everyone else, ecept Biden question everything May 2019 #1

Warren is only 1% behind, and the top five below Biden COMBINED are only 5% ahead of him. George II May 2019 #2

How humiliating. This is very bad news... for Bernie. NurseJackie May 2019 #7

If he finishes 4th or especially 5th there, he needs to drop out after Super Tuesday Celerity May 2019 #12

Remember, they're all proportional caucuses/primaries, and there are 20+ candidates (so far). George II May 2019 #23

WiThIn ThE mArGiN oF eRrOr? NurseJackie May 2019 #3

Name recognition. George II May 2019 #4

Old people.. Kahuna7 May 2019 #13

I see what you did there. Tarheel_Dem May 2019 #14

What, no song? George II May 2019 #5

Music.. Cha May 2019 #24

No music video, but that's "music to my ears"!!! George II May 2019 #27

Read my Cha May 2019 #30

Thanks DSB!!! Skya Rhen May 2019 #6

Ha ha ha. Another poll for Chris Hayes to NOT mention tonight.. Kahuna7 May 2019 #8

It's a B rated poll-cell phone/landline DemocratSinceBirth May 2019 #11

:)))))) Cha May 2019 #25

Go Liz.... Fresh_Start May 2019 #9

Whoa. Warren & Buttigieg are rising like cream. Honeycombe8 May 2019 #10

K&R stonecutter357 May 2019 #15

Far from the first FBaggins May 2019 #16

Is New Hampshire the first primary? DemocratSinceBirth May 2019 #17

By Law crazytown May 2019 #18

Hence" ***BREAKING FIRST PRIMARY NEW HAMPSHIRE POLL***" DemocratSinceBirth May 2019 #19

Got it. crazytown May 2019 #20

Ah FBaggins May 2019 #21

It's the first primary in the nation. DemocratSinceBirth May 2019 #22

Lol DarthDem May 2019 #28

They aren't? FBaggins May 2019 #29

New Hampshire is the first PRIMARY, Iowa is the first CAUCUS. George II May 2019 #31

Warren is the most experienced, smart, fluent speech maker, at140 May 2019 #26

question everything

(47,465 posts)

1. Still surprising that Sanders is ahead of everyone else, ecept Biden

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Thu May 23, 2019, 05:58 PM

May 2019

Good neighbor, I suppose..

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

George II

(67,782 posts)

2. Warren is only 1% behind, and the top five below Biden COMBINED are only 5% ahead of him.

Reply to question everything (Reply #1)

Thu May 23, 2019, 06:06 PM

May 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

NurseJackie

(42,862 posts)

7. How humiliating. This is very bad news... for Bernie.

Reply to George II (Reply #2)

Thu May 23, 2019, 06:08 PM

May 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Celerity

(43,294 posts)

12. If he finishes 4th or especially 5th there, he needs to drop out after Super Tuesday

Reply to question everything (Reply #1)

Thu May 23, 2019, 06:19 PM

May 2019

This also assumes if he doesn't win in Iowa. Because Iowa uses those ridiculously undemocratic caucuses, who knows on that one.

February 3: Iowa caucus
February 11: New Hampshire primary
February 22: Nevada caucus
February 29: South Carolina primary
March 3: Super Tuesday (Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia primaries)
March 7: Louisiana primary

The only one out of all those he probably will win is Vermont (I would be greatly surprised if he does not, that would be instant destruction).

He will have the money to stay in, but at that point he will be a fatally damaged candidate, due to his ceiling being a given. His proceeding forward will only become more and more divisive, as he will have to go full scorched earth in a desperate attempt to knock down the others.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

George II

(67,782 posts)

23. Remember, they're all proportional caucuses/primaries, and there are 20+ candidates (so far).

Reply to Celerity (Reply #12)

Thu May 23, 2019, 08:11 PM

May 2019

Any candidate who doesn't get at least 15% of the vote (not sure about caucuses though) doesn't get any delegates. It could turn out that only three or four candidates finish above 15%, adding more importance to early states.

Hypothetically, lets say the votes stay the same proportion in New Hampshire, including the 29% who are now undecided. That would give the candidates these %:

Biden 46.4%
Sanders 16.9%
Warren 15.5%
All the others would be below 15%

With 24 delegates at stake:

Biden would get 59% of the delegates, 14
Sanders would get 21% of the delegates, 5
Warren would get 19% of the delegates, 5
The other 20+ would get zero.

That's a big head start for Biden considering it's New Hampshire, and could be repeated in Nevada and South Carolina.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

NurseJackie

(42,862 posts)

3. WiThIn ThE mArGiN oF eRrOr?

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Thu May 23, 2019, 06:06 PM

May 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

George II

(67,782 posts)

4. Name recognition.

Reply to NurseJackie (Reply #3)

Thu May 23, 2019, 06:07 PM

May 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Kahuna7

(2,531 posts)

13. Old people..

Reply to NurseJackie (Reply #3)

Thu May 23, 2019, 06:23 PM

May 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Tarheel_Dem

(31,232 posts)

14. I see what you did there.

Reply to NurseJackie (Reply #3)

Thu May 23, 2019, 06:28 PM

May 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

George II

(67,782 posts)

5. What, no song?

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Thu May 23, 2019, 06:07 PM

May 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Cha

(297,123 posts)

24. Music..

Reply to George II (Reply #5)

Thu May 23, 2019, 09:59 PM

May 2019

Link to tweet

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

George II

(67,782 posts)

27. No music video, but that's "music to my ears"!!!

Reply to Cha (Reply #24)

Thu May 23, 2019, 10:40 PM

May 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Cha

(297,123 posts)

30. Read my

Reply to George II (Reply #27)

Thu May 23, 2019, 11:01 PM

May 2019

mind!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Skya Rhen

(2,701 posts)

6. Thanks DSB!!!

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Thu May 23, 2019, 06:08 PM

May 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Kahuna7

(2,531 posts)

8. Ha ha ha. Another poll for Chris Hayes to NOT mention tonight..

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Thu May 23, 2019, 06:09 PM

May 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts)

11. It's a B rated poll-cell phone/landline

Reply to Kahuna7 (Reply #8)

Thu May 23, 2019, 06:16 PM

May 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Cha

(297,123 posts)

25. :))))))

Reply to Kahuna7 (Reply #8)

Thu May 23, 2019, 10:00 PM

May 2019

Link to tweet

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Fresh_Start

(11,330 posts)

9. Go Liz....

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Thu May 23, 2019, 06:11 PM

May 2019

Progressive but feet firmly rooted in reality.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Honeycombe8

(37,648 posts)

10. Whoa. Warren & Buttigieg are rising like cream.

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Thu May 23, 2019, 06:14 PM

May 2019

Poor Beto. It's just not happening for him.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

stonecutter357

(12,695 posts)

15. K&R

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Thu May 23, 2019, 06:52 PM

May 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

FBaggins

(26,727 posts)

16. Far from the first

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Thu May 23, 2019, 06:57 PM

May 2019

Several public polls this year... and a few going back to early last year. Even one a year ago with Harris leading.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts)

17. Is New Hampshire the first primary?

Reply to FBaggins (Reply #16)

Thu May 23, 2019, 06:58 PM

May 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

crazytown

(7,277 posts)

18. By Law

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #17)

Thu May 23, 2019, 07:02 PM

May 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts)

19. Hence" ***BREAKING FIRST PRIMARY NEW HAMPSHIRE POLL***"

Reply to crazytown (Reply #18)

Thu May 23, 2019, 07:04 PM

May 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

crazytown

(7,277 posts)

20. Got it.

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #19)

Thu May 23, 2019, 07:06 PM

May 2019

I'm a bit slow sometimes.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

FBaggins

(26,727 posts)

21. Ah

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #17)

Thu May 23, 2019, 07:13 PM

May 2019

Awfully repetitive title then. "New Hampshire" and "First Primary" are synonyms.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts)

22. It's the first primary in the nation.

Reply to FBaggins (Reply #21)

Thu May 23, 2019, 07:18 PM

May 2019

How about we all write the headlines we like?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

DarthDem

(5,255 posts)

28. Lol

Reply to FBaggins (Reply #21)

Thu May 23, 2019, 10:46 PM

May 2019

No, they're not. And looks like everyone else is cool with the headline.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

FBaggins

(26,727 posts)

29. They aren't?

Reply to DarthDem (Reply #28)

Thu May 23, 2019, 10:52 PM

May 2019

This time around will make a century of them being first.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

George II

(67,782 posts)

31. New Hampshire is the first PRIMARY, Iowa is the first CAUCUS.

Reply to DarthDem (Reply #28)

Thu May 23, 2019, 11:38 PM

May 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

at140

(6,110 posts)

26. Warren is the most experienced, smart, fluent speech maker,

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Thu May 23, 2019, 10:36 PM

May 2019

knows financial & banking issues better than anybody else.
We are again close to another financial meltdown, Thank you Donny..
And it does not hurt that she looks much younger than Bernie & Joe.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

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