Wow

[DemocratSinceBirth]

https://portermedium.com/2019/05/the-way-too-early-2020-election-forecasts-based-off-of-forecast-models/

[saidsimplesimon]

1. Looks like Mr. Biden has

cleared the field.

[2naSalit]

2. That's interesting but I think

I'll wait to see some actual votes out there. Polls have become weaponized from what I see over here in my corner.

[LakeArenal]

3. I'm not so sure of WI

But... time will tell

[Vidal]

4. Wow is right

pretty incredible. wasn't sure Harris was that far ahead in Cali.

[PatrickforO]

5. Interesting but still early days. nt

[left-of-center2012]

6. This was done by a high school kid who just graduated.

Found this online:

"Jack Kersting
I just graduated high school at JJ Pearce High School in Richardson, Texas. I am attending The University of Alabama next year to study economics, foreign relations, and/or business law.

I started my website, jhkforecastsetc.com, in December of 2018.

I created a 2018 Senate Forecast and it was basic but fairly accurate.
I plan to do weekly updates of the state of the 2020 election here."

https://portermedium.com/author/jackker/

So, it's the guess work of a high school kid?

[BannonsLiver]

7. Does that make it wrong?

[left-of-center2012]

8. possibly

He said he was "fairly accurate" on his Senate forecast.

[BannonsLiver]

11. Does his forecast not bode well for someone you like?

[left-of-center2012]

12. I did not give it any consideration.

Some high school kid's predictions?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. The young man admits it's real early.

If the primaries were tomorrow I have no doubt it would play out the way he suggests.

[George II]

9. Einstein was only 26 when he developed his theory of relativity.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. I looked at his Senate forecast

Final result 54/46
His forecast 53/47

https://jhkforecastsetc.com/national-overview/

Not bad at all...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. "So, it's the guess work of a high school kid?"

Ecological Fallacy. Description: The interpretation of statistical data where inferences about the nature of individuals are deduced from inference for the group to which those individuals belong

[George II]

10. Well, there's always Hawaii and Vermont.

[George II]

14. One thing to keep in mind is that the size of the circles represents the number of delegates....

.....in each state, not the margins of the leaders.

Also, although Biden is ahead in 39 states and Puerto Rico, that doesn't mean he'll get all the delegates in each of those states. Delegates are awarded proportionally, so if Biden is ahead 51-49 in a state that has 100 delegates (hypothetically) he'll get 51 delegates and the second place candidate would get 49.

Also, no candidates get delegates in any states where they don't get at least 15% of the votes. If Biden is the leader and enough candidates split the remaining votes so that no one reaches 15% (that's conceivable), Biden would get ALL the delegates in that state.

Lots of things to consider.

[left-of-center2012]

16. It's worth a chuckle

And he's getting his 15 minutes of fame.

But, as he himself said,
he was only "fairly accurate" on his Senate forcasts.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. Please see Post Fifteen.

[ucrdem]

19. I don't think Harris has a lock on Calif any more.

Feinstein has already endorsed Joe and Garcetti has all but endorsed him. I don't know about the rest but I haven't seen a lot of enthusiastic endorsement for Kamala, at least not yet.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. I would hate to see her embarrassed.

[ucrdem]

21. I don't think a close second wouldn't be embarrassing.

Especially if Joe offered the veep slot or extended some other olive branch which he would be sure to do. I don't think she'd take the offer but it would it would patch up any hard feelings. And she still has 4 years left of her first senate term to look forward to.


p.s. needless to say a lot can change . . .