Who's In Danger Of Missing The Third Debate?

[brooklynite]

FiveThirtyEight

6-8 candidates look pretty safe for the third debate. Then it gets dicey.

Technically, no candidates have yet qualified for the third debate because only polls released beginning on June 28 count toward it. However, we can make some good guesses about who’s likely to make it. Five candidates — Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg and Beto O’Rourke — already had at least 130,000 unique donors as of their first-quarter fundraising reports. Joe Biden had almost 97,000 donors in his first 24 hours, so it’s safe to assume he’ll hit 130,000 soon if he hasn’t already. (The Biden campaign did not respond to a request for an updated donor count.) Andew Yang said on Wednesday that he had only about 20,000 more donors to go, which should also be no problem.

The polling criterion might be harder for some candidates, including Yang. Only eight candidates — Biden, Sanders, Warren, Harris, Buttigieg, O’Rourke, Amy Klobuchar and Cory Booker — have routinely polled at 2 percent or higher. And the relatively narrow time frame from when polls are considered will make it harder for candidates to get lucky.

Here’s my overall assessment of everyone’s chances, keeping in mind again that the polling number in the chart reflects all polls since Jan. 12 and not yet the ones that will actually count toward the third debate.

Which candidates are good bets to make the third debate?
CANDIDATE QUALIFYING POLLS (1) UNIQUE DONORS NATE’S ASSESSMENT
Sanders 9 525,000 as of 3/31 Almost certain
Warren 9 135,000 as of 3/31 Almost certain
Harris 9 138,000 as of 3/31 Almost certain
Biden 9 96,926 as of 4/26 Almost certain
Buttigieg 8 158,550 as of 3/31 Almost certain
O’Rourke 9 163,000 as of 3/31 Almost certain†
Klobuchar 8 65,000+ as of 5/3 Probable
Booker 8 65,000+ as of 5/3 Probable
Yang 1 110,000 as of 5/29 Tossup
Castro 2 65,000+ as of 5/3 Tossup
Gabbard 1 65,000+ as of 4/10 Tossup at best
Gillibrand 1 <65,000 Tossup at best
Inslee 0 65,000+ as of 5/24 Tossup at best
Hickenlooper 1 <65,000 Tossup at best
Williamson 0 65,000+ as of 5/9 Leaning against
Ryan 1 <65,000 Lots of work to do
Bullock 0 <65,000 Lots of work to do
Delaney 0 <65,000 Lots of work to do
Swalwell 0 <65,000 Lots of work to do
de Blasio 0 <65,000 Lots of work to do
Bennet 0 <65,000 Lots of work to do
Moulton 0 <65,000 Lots of work to do
(1) Qualifying polls at 2%+ since Jan. 1. Only polls released from June 28 to August 28 count toward the third debate. This column reflects how many polls released since Jan 1. would have qualified under the rules that will be used for the third debate.

[comradebillyboy]

1. Maybe the bottom polling 15 should stay home

[Merlot]

2. Higher standards after the first 2 debates is a good policy.

The bottom candidates participate in the first 2 debates, if their numbers don't raise after that much exposure they are just a distraction.

The only candidates I really want to hear are: Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg and Beto O’Rourke.

Am hoping both Inslee and Hickenlooper make enough of a splash in the first two debates to qualify for the third. Klobachar and Booker would be also be good.

After the first two debates, there should be 10 candidates which will make it easier to focus. Would still be good if on the thrid debate they still have two nights with 5 candidates each so that we can get more depth from each candidate.

[Merlot]

3. Not me!

oh, that's not what you meant...

[EveHammond13]

4. I know I should be following but

are they all in the first two debates? Is there a two-night event where they are split into two groups?

And so the third debate is where they start making the cuts?

[marylandblue]

6. For the first 2 debates, you need 1% in polls or 65,000+ donors.

By my count, 16 people make the cut. Each debate would be split into 2 nights, with participants for each night selected randomly.

Starting with the third debate, the cut criteria increase to 2% in polls AND 130,000+ donors. Whether it's one night or two probably depends on how many make the cut. I guess less than 10 candidates would be one night.

[EveHammond13]

7. thank you!

[cannabis_flower]

5. Well...

The top 6 will be there. But a lot of things could change. Someone like Yang or Castro or I don't know who else, could do really well in the first debate and go way up in the polls and donors. It is too early to make predictions on who is going to be in the 3rd debate without anyone having seen the first debate.