Sanders banking on Iowa win to surge past Biden

[DonViejo]

BY ALEXANDER BOLTON - 05/31/19 06:00 AM EDT


Bernie Sanders’s campaign is all but guaranteeing a win next year in Iowa, a key caucus state that the Vermont senator views as critical to winning the Democratic presidential nomination.

Campaign co-chairman Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) says Sanders will win Iowa -- a bold prediction eight months ahead of the caucus scheduled for Feb. 3, where he will be up against Democratic rivals like Sen. Elizabeth Warren (Mass.) and former Vice President Joe Biden.

“I fully anticipate he’ll win Iowa, having been on the ground there. And I think he’s going to do very well in New Hampshire and then there will be fight between him and probably Warren and Biden,” Khanna said. “I’d be very surprised if he doesn’t win Iowa.”

Sanders, who has slipped in national polls recently, is counting on a strong showing in Iowa to give him momentum heading into New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina — the second, third, and fourth contests of the primary season before Super Tuesday on March 3.

more
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/446265-sanders-banking-on-iowa-win-to-surge-past-biden

[BeyondGeography]

1. Too bad

Because Warren is going to take Iowa.

[trueblue2007]

33. i don't think Sanders will surge anyplace.

[democratisphere]

2. Yeah.

OK.

[comradebillyboy]

3. We shall see. It sure looks like the trajectory of his camaign is

down though.

[Tarc]

4. Iowa should be knocked off the calendar until they dump their caucus bs

Honestly.

[murielm99]

7. Correct.

Do you know anyone who has ever participated in the Iowa caucuses? My daughter did, when she lived there and went to school there. She was a leader for Kerry, but she still found the process bullying, unfair and very undemocratic.

How do the Sanders people plan on winning? I hope they do not plan on shouting people down or closing the doors too early.

[MrsCoffee]

5. Lol. Khanna is the new Goodman.

[comradebillyboy]

35. Poor Ro, he hitched his wagon to a fading star.

[LonePirate]

6. One of two things will happen.

1. Sanders will win Iowa or
2. Someone in his campaign will cite a conspiracy involving the DNC and any competitor who finishes ahead of him

[BlueMTexpat]

10. This! eom

[ProudMNDemocrat]

8. Biden, Harris, Warren when it comes to Iowa...

Bernie will break the top 5, but that is all.

[still_one]

9. Because Iowa has always been a great predictor who will be our nominee........................

NOT!!!!!!

[hlthe2b]

11. I really don't see that happening...

[George II]

12. He needs to win a diverse state. Iowa or New Hampshire will prove nothing.

[nevergiveup]

13. No way

Sanders will continue to be a strong liberal voice in American politics but his days as a strong presidential
candidate are slipping away and he is not going to get them back. IMHO

[SidDithers]

14. Iowa is meaningless...

Homogenous white caucus state.

Not representative of Democratic electorate.

South Carolina is where the 2020 primary really starts.

Sid

[BeyondGeography]

15. Sure it is

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/2018/01/04/10-year-anniversary-victory-barack-obama-calls-iowa-caucuses-his-favorite-night/1003133001/

[SidDithers]

16. The times, they are a changin'...

2020 is not 2008.

Sid

[BeyondGeography]

17. It's pretty simple. If Harris wants a big night in SC

she needs to do well in Iowa.

[SidDithers]

18. Thought this thread was about Bernie?...

Sid

[comradebillyboy]

36. I suspect you might be correct.

[SouthernProgressive]

19. Can't figure out the connection between their comment and your article. NT

[BeyondGeography]

21. Really?

Try this: Ask Obama if Iowa is meaningless.

[SouthernProgressive]

22. Apples and oranges. Ask Bill Clinton.

Now I get the connection.

[BeyondGeography]

23. Or Howard Dean, or John Kerry...

Iowa is especially important to black candidates, which is what I was responding to. A strong showing there proves viability on the national stage. After Iowa, HRC’s numbers with AA voters plummeted in SC and Obama’s soared. Iowa is not meaningless.

[SouthernProgressive]

24. Can you show the historical trend of importance...

"Iowa is especially important to black candidates"

Not sure what that would have to do with the topic being discussed in the first place.

[BeyondGeography]

25. You said that already

See post above from Harris supporter who says “Iowa is meaningless.”

The example of Obama speaks for itself. Here’s more:

Joshua Putnam, a professor at the University of North Carolina Wilmington who specializes in political primaries, said a candidate in Harris’ position needs to meet expectations in Iowa and the subsequent New Hampshire primary to remain viable for the strategy to work.

“They likely do not need outright wins in either of the first two states, but that is not the only type of winning. One can win or lose relative to expectations as well,” Putnam said.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-harris/kamala-harris-carves-distinct-early-state-path-in-her-2020-white-house-bid-idUSKCN1RO2CX

Iowa is not meaningless.

We good now?

[SouthernProgressive]

27. We have never been bad, as far as I'm aware.

You also didn't highlight the trend of importance.

The person one supports in the primary shouldn't hijack the direction of a discussion. It's not a point of discussion in itself.

Finally, what does the new article you bring into play have to do with the importance of Iowa to specifically black persons. That is a bit of an uncomfortable jump you made with that article.

[SouthernProgressive]

20. It's a must win for Sanders. NT

[comradebillyboy]

37. Sanders is making it a must win. So what happens if he does poorly?

[andym]

26. History: Iowa won it for Kerry in 2004

Dean severely underperformed his expectations. Wesley Clark decided to skip Iowa dooming his campaign. Kerry vaulted ahead of everyone to take a commanding lead that would not be relinquished.
As for Sanders, he might be surprised in Iowa by the strength of other candidates. Iowa has been a state to help launch underdog campaigns to the first tier-- little known Jimmy Carter in 1976 made his move there. Warren and Buttiegieg may prove stronger there than they seem now. O' Rourke excels at the local campaigning that is the bread and butter of Iowa. There are more than 20 candidates that might catch fire there. We will have to see.

[SouthernProgressive]

28. I think Bill Clinton got around 3% in Iowa.

There are many factors at play.

[George II]

30. Looking at the 1992 Iowa caucus, finishing first was Tom Harkin, who at the time...

...was a Senator from Iowa and was expected to win big (he got 77%). Finishing second was "Uncommitted"!

Clinton finished second in a huge field - Tsongas had only 33%, Clinton 25%, everyone else had 11% or less.

[andym]

32. Iowa was uncontested in 1992 because of Harkin

So it had little of its traditional effect.

[honest.abe]

29. I guess he is counting on the Russians to help him again.

Without cheating he has no chance.

[MineralMan]

31. What optimism! What wishful thinking!

So Ro Khanna thinks Bernie's gonna win Iowa, eh? Well, she would say that, wouldn't she?

She'd be "very surprised..."

No doubt. But, then, campaign managers get paid to say things like that...

[Cha]

38. Ro Khanna is

a guy, FYI.

[MineralMan]

40. Uh, OK.

Gender is fluid, innit?

[Hekate]

34. Grumpy Grandpa versus Favorite Cheery Uncle? Should be interesting. I wonder how many of the rest...

...will have been winnowed out by the end of this year, and who wll be lining up for a chance at the VP slot.

[ucrdem]

39. I don't think his anti-trade schtick is going to catch on with Iowa farmers

who used to sell their soybeans to China.