"Is Joltin Joe Biden's Bounce Over?"

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Hint, it's relatively stable

Democratic presidential candidates may be stuck in a holding pattern for the next month, with few opportunities to shake up the race between now and the first primary debate. That’s probably fine by former Vice President Joe Biden, who has emerged as the early polling front-runner since officially entering the race on April 25. But is Biden’s polling bounce starting to fade?

Well, based on recent surveys, there is evidence that while Biden remains in the lead, his post-announcement polling surge has leveled off. Morning Consult’s latest tracking poll, for example, found Biden with 38 percent support nationally, down from a peak of 40 percent in early May. Quinnipiac University has also conducted Democratic primary polls multiple times since Biden entered the race, and it found Biden at 35 percent in a poll released on May 21, compared with 38 percent in a poll conducted right after his campaign announcement in April. If you compare his performance in national and state surveys taken in the three-week period that followed his campaign announcement — when he, like other candidates, experienced a surge in support — with the polls that were taken in the 10 days after that stretch, his average has dropped, to 35.0 percent from 36.6 percent.1

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-bidens-bounce-over/

[EveHammond13]

1. why would an announcement surge continue indefinitely

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. The question is how much of an announcement bounce a candidate can sustain.

[KPN]

3. Biden's lead can only diminish even from here. So it's not surprising.

[Demsrule86]

4. No he we will be the nominee.

[KPN]

5. I didn't say he wouldn't.

[Demsrule86]

13. Just stating my opinion.

[George II]

6. When one zooms to the top its tough to stay at the very top. Some of his numbers will drop....

...but what's interesting is that others who aren't close to the top are dropping, too.

[MineralMan]

7. Oh, I'm not really concerned.

After the first debates, there will be some realignment. A lot of people will shift support from candidates who aren't doing very well to some other candidate.

And there's Joe Biden, with a big smile on his face. and over there's Bernie Sanders, scowling at you. A lot of people, when they actually look at how candidates are doing, will shift their support.

I expect Biden to get his share of that shift, which will push him up in the polls.

Most folks aren't really focusing on the Democratic Primary race right now. There's this orange-haired moron over there, destroying everything. That kind of has their attention at the moment.

[Gothmog]

8. Good article-Biden is holding his own

[Scurrilous]

9. K&R

[LongtimeAZDem]

10. It looks too be settling about halfway up from it's highest point, so he's stabilizing with

a commanding lead, at over a third of the total and up five points from before.

So, not just a bounce, but a boost.

[Tarheel_Dem]

11. K&R

[crazytown]

12. RCP Announcement bounce was 5-6%

Similar Result : 35% Average , 18% Lead
Stronge result for Biden given showing solid 27-30% core support