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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!

Mon Jun 3, 2019, 04:12 PM

 

Here are the states where Biden could win 100% of the delegates.

Under Democratic Party rules in order to get any delegates, a candidate must win at least 15% of the vote in a primary. (In some states, it is a state-wide 15% and in some states the 15% is calculated at the congressional district level.)

I just checked some state polling for Democratic 2020 primaries at Nate Silvers www.fivethirtyeight.com where he has polling data for several early primary states.

There are some interesting results, so far. In several states, Biden is the only candidate with over 15% in the polls so far. This of course is due to the fact that there are so many candidates diluting the vote.

Unsurprisingly, several of the states are in the south, where Biden has a great deal of support from African American primary voters.

South Carolina, an early primary, has a recent poll with Biden at 37% and Sanders at 10%.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/south-carolina/

Other states where Sanders is under 15% include:

1. Alabama
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/alabama/

2. Florida
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/florida/

and even

3. Pennsylvania
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/pennsylvania/


A lot can happen over the next nine months, and it's possible candidates will drop out and second place finishers will get over 15% in some of these primaries, but as things look right now Biden is positioned to build a very strong early-primary lead thanks to the weakness of his competitors, and the Democratic primary rules which could give him 100% of the delegates in some states.


If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Arrow 16 replies Author Time Post
Reply Here are the states where Biden could win 100% of the delegates. (Original post)
Vidal Jun 2019 OP
LonePirate Jun 2019 #1
Indykatie Jun 2019 #2
NewJeffCT Jun 2019 #4
Vidal Jun 2019 #7
Cha Jun 2019 #3
LibFarmer Jun 2019 #5
Vidal Jun 2019 #6
Gothmog Jun 2019 #8
Gothmog Jun 2019 #9
Vidal Jun 2019 #10
Gothmog Jun 2019 #11
Vidal Jun 2019 #13
Hortensis Jun 2019 #12
Vidal Jun 2019 #14
Hortensis Jun 2019 #15
Scurrilous Jun 2019 #16

Response to Vidal (Original post)

Mon Jun 3, 2019, 04:22 PM

1. Cue the complaints by a certain candidate's followers that the primary system is rigged!

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to LonePirate (Reply #1)

Mon Jun 3, 2019, 05:51 PM

2. You're 100% On Point That Bernie's Camp Will Take issue With the 15% Rule.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Indykatie (Reply #2)

Tue Jun 4, 2019, 08:37 AM

4. I keep pointing this out, but in late 2007

 

supporters of Obama and then 3rd place candidate John Edwards also complained that the primary process was rigged in favor of Clinton.

You know what happened? Obama went out and won the nomination in 2008 by getting enough delegates.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to NewJeffCT (Reply #4)

Tue Jun 4, 2019, 08:54 AM

7. Funny how people who get the most votes win elections

 

and those who don't find many ways to complain.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Vidal (Original post)

Tue Jun 4, 2019, 06:11 AM

3. K!

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Vidal (Original post)

Tue Jun 4, 2019, 08:41 AM

5. My ego is hurting

 

I didn't win .. so it was rigged by the corrupt DNC !!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to LibFarmer (Reply #5)

Tue Jun 4, 2019, 08:47 AM

6. LOL (Sore Losers)

 

Losers always blame "the system" and "the establishment" and "the party."
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Vidal (Original post)

Tue Jun 4, 2019, 12:32 PM

8. I really doubt that sanders will break 15% statewide in Texas

 

We have Biden, Beto, Castro, Warren and Harris who should come in ahead of sanders in Texas
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Vidal (Original post)

Tue Jun 4, 2019, 12:44 PM

9. If we can hold sanders to under 300 delegates, his name will not be put into nomination

 

I was a delegate to the Philadelphia convention and saw how the process works. One key item is that under the rules, a candidate cannot be put into nomination without 300 delegates. https://democrats.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/2020-Call-for-Convention-WITH-Attachments-2.26.19.pdf

Nomination of the Democratic Candidate for President: The Permanent Chair shall receive nominations from the floor for the Democratic candidate for the Office of President of the United
States in the following manner:

a. Requests to nominate a presidential candidate shall be in writing and shall have affixed thereto the written approval of the proposed nominee and the name of the individuals who shall be recognized to make the nominating and seconding speeches on behalf of a presidential candidate and shall be delivered to the Convention Secretary at a location as specified by the Secretary no later than 6:00 p.m. of the day preceding the day designated for the commencement of presidential nominations.

b. Each such request must be accompanied by a petition indicating support for the proposed nominee signed by delegates representing not less than 300 or more than 600 delegate votes, not more than 50 of which may come from one (1) delegation. A delegate may not sign more than one (1) nominating petition for president and for vice president. Pledged and automatic delegates may sign the petition.

I signed the petition for Clinton in 2016 to put her into nomination but we have over 170 Clinton supporters in the Texas delegation.

If sanders is frozen out of enough states due to the 15% rule and remaining non-Biden delegates are split among several candidates, there is a chance that sanders may not reach 300 threshold
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Gothmog (Reply #9)

Tue Jun 4, 2019, 12:47 PM

10. Is this likely?

 

Gothmog, your post is very interesting. I do see Biden getting 100% in a few states, but I never thought Bernie would do so poorly as to not get even 300 votes. How likely is that, given current polling as a guide?
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Vidal (Reply #10)

Tue Jun 4, 2019, 12:52 PM

11. It depends how many states sanders is shut out of delegates

 

In addition, the other non-Biden delegates may be split between a half dozen or so candidates. Due to the 15% rule I doubt that more than 6 to 10 candidates will get delegates

Time will tell
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Gothmog (Reply #11)

Tue Jun 4, 2019, 04:14 PM

13. I think 6 is a good estimate

 

nt
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Vidal (Original post)

Tue Jun 4, 2019, 03:35 PM

12. Which states might Sanders be #2 in in 9 months?

 

He's now hauling so much self-generated dirty baggage that I find it hard to believe it could be more than a very small number. Perhaps his own plus the ones with a lot of conservatives registered as Democrats (like WV and KY). A lot of those would probably back him again in the primary to cause trouble for us.

I remember exit polls from two precincts in one of those coal states reporting that 44% and 37 or 39% of Democratic conservatives specifically said they voted for him to hurt Hillary but smirked and laughed at the idea of voting for him in the GE. They presumably would do it again if he hasn't dropped out. Both primaries will be in May, after over 40 states have already voted, encouraging him to remain in.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Hortensis (Reply #12)

Tue Jun 4, 2019, 04:16 PM

14. Great Question

 

Was thinking he would probably be #2 in about 30 states, but that is just a guess.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Vidal (Reply #14)

Tue Jun 4, 2019, 05:44 PM

15. Over half in Democratic primaries? Why?

 

Don't the primaries contradict that? None of the others can compete? Very interesting topic, but need crystal ball. Noting that Biden was supposed to start failing immediately according to much of the common wisdom.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Vidal (Original post)

Tue Jun 4, 2019, 06:23 PM

16. ...

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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