To beat Biden, his rivals must win in Iowa and New Hampshire

[emmaverybo]

Poll of the week: A new Monmouth University Nevada Democratic caucuses poll finds that former Vice President Joe Biden leads with 36%. He was followed by Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 19%, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders at 13%, South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 7% and California Sen. Kamala Harris at 6%.
The poll was the first high-quality poll taken of the third-in-the-nation Nevada caucuses.
What's the point: The big question for most of the 2020 Democratic presidential field is how to beat front-runner Biden.


https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/15/politics/joe-biden-iowa-new-hampshire-poll/index.html

[NYMinute]

1. They still can't win

Biden will sweep the South.

[Blue_true]

4. People thought Hillary would sweep the South in 2008.

Until Barack Obama upset her in Iowa.

I really think that if Senator Warren comes close to Joe Biden on Iowa, we have a totally new race and anything can happen from that point on.

[customerserviceguy]

5. At this point

I agree. But there is still time for something to change, either something that sinks Biden, or gives a boost to another candidate. I personally think that is unlikely, but stranger things have happened in the elections in my lifetime.

[comradebillyboy]

2. Let's see what develops over the next six months.

[Honeycombe8]

3. So not true. Bill Clinton didn't win either. Obama didn't win N.H. Dukakis didn't win Iowa.

REPUBS have to win IA & NH. Not Democrats (although it is very helpful, and can end a campaign if he/she doesn't win those).

NPR says that for Dems, Iowa is more predictive.

https://www.npr.org/2016/01/31/465016222/how-predictive-are-iowa-and-new-hampshire

[Blue_true]

6. Someone pointed out the South.

With President Obama in 2008 and President Clinton in 1992, and Hillary in 2016, the South basically gave the race to them they performed so strong there. With Dukakis, other people split up the southern vote, so the WestCoast and North became more important and that favored him.

[Honeycombe8]

7. I was going to point out that the Carolinas & that area seems more determinative....

The southern east seems to be more determinative for Democrats. Esp if wins there follow a win in either IA or NH.

But the post was only about NH and IA.

IA and NH can kill a candidate's chances, though.

IA and NH wins are crucial for Republicans. Except when there's an incumbent.

https://www.npr.org/2016/01/31/465016222/how-predictive-are-iowa-and-new-hampshire