CBS News Battleground Tracker poll: Biden leads, with Warren, Harris, Sanders close behind

[DonViejo]

BY ANTHONY SALVANTO, KABIR KHANNA, JENNIFER DE PINTO AND FRED BACKUS

JUNE 16, 2019 / 8:30 AM / CBS NEWS

The belief that he could fare best against President Trump is currently propelling Joe Biden in the early Democratic nomination race by two measures — vote preference, and the delegates that would come with them. But others — including Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders — are in the mix, at least in terms of the candidates voters are considering.

This study looked at the Democratic contest across the places it will matter first: the entirety of 18 states that will shape the initial 2020 fight through Super Tuesday, including Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. And CBS News converted Democrats' vote choices across all those states into delegates, because that's the count that will ultimately matter — that is, the nomination contest selects delegates to the Democratic convention next year.

CBS News first asked which candidates voters are considering supporting — and told them they could pick as many or as few as they liked. (As with many decisions people make, early in the process they'll narrow their options before settling on one.)

Biden gets the most consideration, from a majority 55% of Democrats. Warren (49%), Harris (45%) and Bernie Sanders (43%) are trailing closely in that regard.

more
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-news-battleground-tracker-poll-biden-leads-in-vote-choice-warren-harris-sanders-close-behind/

[highplainsdem]

1. The paragraph about first-choice vote is most crucial here:

Biden is the most effective at translating consideration into a first-choice vote. He leads across the early states in vote preference with 31% of Democratic primary voters, compared to Warren's 17%, Sanders' 16%, and Harris' 10%. Biden converts most of those considering him into picking him as their first choice when pressed, but fewer of those considering Warren or Sanders — roughly a third – pick those candidates as their first choice.

Editing to add that the article goes on to note that if these first-choice picks are translated to primary wins, that would mean 731 delegates for Biden, compared to 355 for Warren and 317 for Sanders.

[thesquanderer]

5. But kind of surprising that 45% of voters aren't even *considering* Biden.

And unlike many others, you can't attribute any significant amount of that to lack of name recognition.

[George II]

7. Well, to use that criteria, 51% aren't considering Warren, 55% Harris, and a surprising 57%....

....aren't considering BS, and he has name recognition in the same range as Biden, and he's been running for president for four years.

[thesquanderer]

8. I agree, Biden's position here is much stronger than Sanders'.

Warren, not so certain.

Whereas 91-92% of people have heard of Biden and Sanders AND know enough about them to have formed an opinion, that figure is only 75% for Warren. And only 64% for Harris.

https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/

[marylandblue]

10. I don't think the voters know nearly enough about Warren or Buttigieg.

They may think they do, but both are saying something very new and that takes time to sink in. The media only caught on to Warren a few weeks ago, and they've known her for years.

[Cha]

14. Thanks for highlighting that, highplainsdem!

[highplainsdem]

2. Another interesting detail: Sanders supporters are least likely to consider other candidates.

The article calls them the most "singularly-focused."

That means Sanders will have to work especially hard to convince his supporters to back another candidate, assuming he isn't the nominee. And right now it seems very unlikely that he'll be the nominee.

[thesquanderer]

9. OTOH, this is an interesting poll about "second choices"...

According to https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/

Among Biden supporters, the leading "second choice" is Sanders, who is picked by 30% of them.
But among Sanders supporters, the leading "second choice" is Biden, who is picked by 33% of them.

So more Sanders supporters like Biden as second choice than the other way around!

Anyway, I think this argues against your premise that it would be hard for Sanders to "convince his supporters to back another candidate, assuming he isn't the nominee." And really, I think the vast majority of Sanders supporters will support ANY Dem candidate against Trump, and that's what matters. Remember, for all the angst about it around here, the vast majority (about 88%) of Sanders primary voters did end up voting for Hillary against Trump last time. By comparison, it looks like only about 70% of people who voted for Hillary in the 2008 primary voted for Obama in the general...

https://www.npr.org/2017/08/24/545812242/1-in-10-sanders-primary-voters-ended-up-supporting-trump-survey-finds

https://www.researchgate.net/figure/General-Election-Vote-by-Primary-Vote_tbl2_249278018

[BlueWI]

15. That's Biden's job too

and everyone else's, to win support from the biggest proportions of the Democratic base, including former supporters of other candidates.

I personally think that the winner of the nomination has the biggest role and the most at stake in winning these votes, including signaling how contentious issues between the camps might be resolved.

[George II]

3. Here are the first choice results:

Biden 31%
Warren 17%
Sanders 16%
Harris 10%.

Another excerpt: "Biden also leads in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, specifically."

[Peacetrain]

4. WOW! High Impact Graphic

[thesquanderer]

6. If Warren & Sanders weren't splitting the left, it looks like their combined voters could beat Biden

in that first place ranking. If something happens that causes either one of them to drop out before Iowa, that might be the biggest threat to Biden.

[marylandblue]

11. Neither will drop out, but one will be way ahead of the other

and that person will be in striking distance of Biden.

[thesquanderer]

12. I don't expect either to drop out either. They're both doing well and have resources.

I was talking about something unexpected, like (hopefully not!) a health issue.

[marylandblue]

13. The most unexpected thing in this campaign will be

that one person will emerge as the champion of change and will be Biden's main competition. I am pulling for Buttigieg, but it is more likely to be Warren.

[Demsrule86]

16. There will be the same ceiling as in 16 and Biden the perceived moderate who can beat Trump will win