Why is Biden still leading???

[Peacetrain]

It is not just name recognition.. trust me.. people knew and know who Sanders, Warren, Booker, Harris, etc are.. they are learning who Buttigieg and O'Rourke are..

This is purely a personal observation..but looking at primary states where Biden will do the best.. He is the one people feel can actually pull our ashes out of the fires with our allies.. knows all the handles that need to be pulled to get embassies filled etc..


They want someone who can get the Federal Government plastered back together.. they see we are in the deep stuff because we have a current resident of the White House who has not taken his job seriously..


I am a huge proponent of getting our priorities straight on the environment.. but I understand that we have to get a functioning government back up and running.. it is running on its own now..auto pilot.and thank God for that.. but we are starting to fall apart

[stonecutter357]

1. let's go Joe !

[Peacetrain]

2. Your post always makes me smile

Thank you!! Lets go Joe!!!

[still_one]

8. ++++++++++++++++++++++++

[emmaverybo]

42. I second your emotion. Let's go Joe!

[Green Line]

67. ++++++++++++++

[DownriverDem]

71. Folks need to focus

All that matters is beating trump. Biden can do that. Folks want normalcy. Biden represents that. I don't get that folks don't seem to focus on who can win the Electoral College. We can't take a chance on a candidate that represents too much change. Folks are looking to find someone who can get our country in order. If the Dems don't win the White House, there will be no chance of our ideas being acted on. So if Biden picks a progressive Dem woman to run as VP, it would be a formidable team. I would love to see a Biden/Harris ticket! Go Joe!

[marylandblue]

3. I think it is in fact name recognition as well as familiarity.

Biden has been around for years and people know his record. They may have heard of Buttigieg, but he's still just "the gay guy," (actual quote from an aquaintance). Warren is still known more for Pocahontas than anything else.

So as they start attaching personalities and policies to people, they will make more informed choices. I expect a lot of movement after the debate. It will be the first widely-viewed unfiltered moment for all the candidates except Biden and Sanders.

This is not necessarily bad for Biden. He only in the mid-30s. Most people aren't sold on him yet. If others don't impress, he will consolidate his lead.

[Peacetrain]

7. The fact he is in the mid 30's and in the 40's in some polls

with a field this big.. and the top four are in pretty good shape themselves.. is impressive to me.. so I like his numbers..

but looking at the polls I think people know our candidates are.. Can they shift.. of course.. Look at Bernie Sanders.. Elizabeth Warren is eating his lunch.. but I think we are beyond the point of voters not knowing who are our top people are.. People feel good about who they have chosen to support.. that is what I am reading ..

[George II]

11. Depending upon the poll, Biden's support exceeds the next three, four, or five candidates combined.

[Peacetrain]

15. True that.. I do not have the polls in front of me!

It is absolutely impressive..

[marylandblue]

34. In the two most recent polls on RCP, Sanders+Warren are beating him.

[FBaggins]

78. You appear to be living in the past

His current polling numbers are not "mid 30's and in the 40s in some polls"

He hasn't hit 40 in almost a month and a half and his current average is 31.5% (which is right back where he was before he kicked off campaigning).

The main reason he's still leading is that nothing has happened apart from his bounce fading. No big campaign-related news... no debates... no actual voting. Why would his support fall below his baseline?

Things will get volatile enough in the coming weeks.

[Peacetrain]

79. You are right..I was wrong.. 40% is old.. it was 53% as of 6/11/2019

against Trump..


https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2019/06/11/poll-biden-leads-trump-13-percentage-points-nationally/1425173001/


"WASHINGTON – If the 2020 election was held this week, a new poll suggests President Donald Trump would likely lose to several top Democratic presidential candidates, including former Vice President Joe Biden.

According to a new national Quinnipiac poll, Biden holds a 13 percentage-point lead over Trump, 53% to 40%. In the Democratic primary race, Biden is currently the front-runner, with 30% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters surveyed in the poll saying they would vote for Biden"

[FBaggins]

80. That's great news if he runs against Trump

He has to get past a couple dozen Democrats first.

And, of course, we can't forget that CNN had Clinton over Trump 59-35 in June of 2015... yet we're stuck with the guy.

[Peacetrain]

81. We'll see what happens.. that is what primaries and caucuses are for..

Sort it out.. and I would have to disagree with the couple of dozen number of candidates..4 others oh yeah.. but most do not have a chance even at this early point in time..

[FBaggins]

82. That's a big assumption unsupported by recent history.

The most similar election in recent history is probably 1976. If we look at June of 1975, the Republican incumbent (Ford) was presumed highly vulnerable given Nixon's resignation in shame less than a year earlier. There were about 20 Democratic candidates seeking the nomination.

Jimmy Carter was about a dozen spots down the list at ~1% - with comparatively little name recognition.

In June of 1991 there were also quite a few candidates waiting to take on a vulnerable incumbent. Bill Clinton was also about a dozen spots down with little name recognition... at between 1-2%.

I would agree that most of the candidates on the lower end of the list have little to no chance... but we also have to accept that this does not mean that the eventual nominee is not down there.

[Demsrule86]

86. So has Sanders and Warren....no Biden can win.

[marylandblue]

89. Biden has the mist, by far, sanders 2nd most, Warren 3rd

Also, name recognition also includes knowing their personalities and positions. Here again, Biden, sanders then Warren. Which is the order they were in a few weeks ago, until people got more familiar with Warren, then she took some votes from Sanders and caught up.

You are correct, "no Biden can win." Only a Warren or a Buttigieg... I'm joking😀

[highplainsdem]

4. I agree. But it's also very much how electable people believe he is.

To the best of my recollection, in every poll I've seen where people were asked which mattered more to them -- electability or sympathy with a candidate's stand on issues/policies -- electability won out.

Most people realze that nominating a candidate they're in sync with idieologically won't accomplish a damn thing if that nominee loses to Trump.

And I think most Democrats who are very liberal actually do realize they aren't representative of the party as a whole. (If they don't realize that, they should get out of whatever echo chamber they're in.)

[Peacetrain]

9. Right about that..

Last edited Sun Jun 16, 2019, 10:15 AM - Edit history (1)

Even when Pres Obama was running against Bush the younger's legacy... I have never seen such enthusiasm to get that guy out of there

Edit to add legacy (McCain was the actual opponent).. as someone so right pointed out.. my wording is confusing

[Demit]

21. Obama ran against McCain in 2008, not Bush. Bush was gone in any case.

[Peacetrain]

28. I know it was McCain..but people were energized about getting rid of the republican party

what the Bush administration had done.. Obama ran against the Bush legacy as much as McCain.. McCain never had a chance ... people wanted that administration and all its hangers on.. out of DC thanks so much for pointing that out.. reread it ... it is confusing.. corrected it in the post

[TruckFump]

16. To me, that is THE MAJOR concern for 2020

Whomever beats that orange asshole in the WH by the yuuuuuuuuuuuuugest number...that's who gets my vote in the primaries.

I have to say that we Dems have a totally amazing field of candidates. I will be honored in 2020 to vote for any one of them, or both of them, that make the ticket for Prez and VP.

[Peacetrain]

19. Cannot disagree with you a second there

We do have an amazing field...

[marylandblue]

25. I have more... complicated idea of what is happening, and it is not reflected in the polls yet.

Trump changed conservatism in unexpected ways. He turned it against free trade and made it full anti-immigrant and authoritarian populist. Now progressivism is changing in response. Even moderates are more "woke" after seeing naked ugly racism. Universal healthcare is now mainstream. Economic populism is getting the full hearing it didn't get in 2016.

If I'm correct, economic populism will suddenly be the rage and someone like Warren or Buttigieg wins. If I'm not correct, then Biden wins unless he stumbles badly (don't rule this out, it happened before).
If he does stumble, a low polling non-change candidate wins.

Nothing we say on DU will change the dynamic, so relax if I suggested your favorite candidate is less than perfect.

[BlueWI]

43. Good analysis.

Democrats need to tap into the populism. The above-the-fray mindset has limited upside.

[loyalsister]

5. Maybe...

Conventional wisdom and early polling numbers have convinced a lot of voters that he is most electable? That he was part of a team that was already elected twice, may also generate some optimism for his candidacy.
For some people he's the great white hope, who could have gotten congress to work with the WH if roles were reversed or could have won the electoral college in 2016.

[Peacetrain]

13. Where I think (again this is my personal opinion)

people have missed his staying power is the fact that they have underestimated VP Biden.. I know that sounds strange since he has so much experience and so well known.. but the chattering classes dismissed him.. and still do.. and if he falls a few points it is the talking point of entire shows.. Its kind of crazy to be honest.. that he would be underestimated..just my opinion

[loyalsister]

22. Could be

But DU chatter about electability leads me to think it's largely early poll driven, and therefore circular.
There is a lot of time to go and a lot can happen between now and when people actually start voting.

[PatSeg]

24. Oh yes

Biden has been underestimated for many years, especially by the MSM. His experience and accomplishments are often ignored or dismissed by pundits and the opposition. There is far more to Joe Biden than most people realize.

[AlexSFCA]

52. and I have little doubt Biden will choose woman as VP

either Harris or Warren, both are progressive medicare for all dems. That will finally shut Anita Hill argument who will be the first one to publicly support biden should he win the nomination.

[PatSeg]

58. I would bet money on that

I am sure Joe knew from the day he planned to run that he would choose a woman running mate, someone who would be as involved in his administration as he was in Obama's.

[The Mouth]

70. He's smart enough to actually USE what Warren would bring to the table, too

Instead of just having a VP to represent a constituency or faction, with Warren he would be bringing a genuine expert in that field into the White House. And while I sure Ms. Warrren would do very well at all aspects of being President -I'd gladly vote for her- letting an expert focus on the area of their passion and expertise is usually a Good Thing.

[PatSeg]

74. Oh, I can picture it

There is no way Warren would be quiet if she had an opinion about something and Biden is naturally inquisitive, so he'd be inclined to listen to her, especially being she is an expert in her field.

I do recall Joe meeting with Warren in 2015 or 2016 when he was considering a presidential run. How different the world would be today if we'd had such a ticket. No offense to Hillary, but I think a Biden/Warren ticket would have been unbeatable. But perhaps all of this is inevitable, as in order to see major positive change in this country, we need to see the republican party as we know it destroyed. Trump has revealed them for who and what they are. Now the voters have to act.

[Demsrule86]

87. I don't think he will. He is above 70 and polls clearly show a bias against women

presidents. He should choose geographically. We must win.

[marylandblue]

29. Yes, I may be guilty of that. But I don't mind being wrong, it's part of the fun.

I think he a lot of strengths but many weaknesses too. I certainly might be underestimating him, but I don't think so because his weaknesses have already shown up, it's just that it's still early and people aren't paying close attention.

I think the real person being underestimated right now is Warren. She been branded as too far left and too wonky, but she's a great communicator, genuine, and is making economic populism cool again. We are angry at the billionaires and she is calling for the torches and pitchforks. If they aren't afraid of her, they should be.

[FloridaBlues]

6. Maybe it has to do with experience and doesn't need on the job training?

Perhaps people like experience for this job.

[Peacetrain]

10. Yep good point

[Cha]

46. I think it has a lot to do with it..

'cause it's true.

Mahalo, FloridaBlues

[liberal N proud]

12. I will go with experience

He spent 8 years under the wing of the best damn President we have had for decades.

[Peacetrain]

14. Amen to that!

When some start saying we do not want to go backwards.. I am sorry . I would be thrilled to be starting with what President Obama left us after his tenure.. he moved things.. and the current residents only real purpose is to get judges and erase the Obama administration from the history books

[marylandblue]

30. The going backwards thing is a metaphor for something else that isn't Obama's fault

but Biden supporter's can't hear it as anything but an attack on Obama or Biden. Which is unfortunate because I feel like my genuine concerns about what you said get dismissed. And we shouldn't dismiss each other like this.

[NYMinute]

17. K&R nt

[dawg day]

18. It's a year and 5 months till the election.

Jeb! was still leading at this point probably.

Not that Joe is Jeb, but it's just too early to know who is going to last. Biden is a good person to be the "advance man" because he will make voters feel more confident that the election is winnable by the Democrats, and because he does have a huge base that he can bring along with him. And we know that Biden will (if he's not the nominee) enthusiastically and fully support the eventual nominee, rather than causing anger and acrimony.

So in some ways, I think he's easy to support at this point even if he's not one's ideal candidate-- there's no real downside now and it expresses our interest and our intention to be involved and vote.

[Peacetrain]

20. Trump ate everyone up on stage

because he had the media experience and has no moral compass.. period.. so we have to have the best person to take that on..

[marylandblue]

32. Of course we have to have the best, but we can't know who that is yet.

It might be Biden, but I'm not ready to say so until he proves himself this time around. His experience is a good thing to have, but Trump is unlike anyone in US history, so experience is not a good guide to thos election.

[Indygram]

23. Jimmy Carter was at 1% at this point when he won

eom

[MineralMan]

26. Because the people they poll aren't DUers?

DUers and others who are deeply interested in politics do not reflect the general population very well at all. Pollsters wisely survey people in a more general way, to see what the voting population thinks.

Joe Biden polls highly, because he's more popular as a presidential candidate than the others.

It's pretty simple, really.

[emmaverybo]

48. This. He's popular among more Americans at this point than the other candidates. It is difficult

to put one’s finger on what makes a candidate popular. But certainly a personal dynamic is at work. I believe Joe’s popularity stems from his ability to connect with the public at an emotional level.
This is rooted in part in his speaking style, which though not as intense and animated as Beto, Warren, and Sanders, conveys authenticity, sincerity, compassion.

Many speakers can put across their passion for a stance or policy, but not many evoke a sense that the speaker cares about them. This audience to speaker bond is helped because Biden uses a conversational style in his speeches. Being fervently attached to message is just not the same as creating a bond to and with the audience.

Now debates present a whole different challenge because the communication loop is essentially
interrupted. We will see how Biden’s natural communication style holds up when he’s one of many
speakers fielding questions, having to think on his feet, and competing.

However, a few stumbles in a debate might not diminish his popularity. Biden’s less policy-centered approach could help him. Policy plans as ready-to-go straight to legislation dazzle select groups, but larger numbers of Americans vote the person in than they vote for policy.

Early days. So far, Biden is substantially more liked by more potential voters relative to the field. Oh yeah, these voters also recognize his deeper and longer experience in government and his greater foreign relations and policy qualifications.

[MineralMan]

51. That's a good analysis, I think.

Voter approval and popularity for candidates is a tough thing to figure out, really. So many voters do not really express themselves about their political viewpoints, but their preferences show up in polling before elections. We don't necessarily know who they are, nor on what they base their decisions. But, we see their numbers.

Some wonder about that. But, they shouldn't. Raw popularity has played a large role in many, many presidential elections. Many, many people vote on gut feelings, rather than on issues. That has to be taken into consideration, even if it doesn't seem to make a lot of sense. For example, candidate personality played a large role in the elections of JFK, Reagan, Carter, Clinton and others. Sometimes, it is the main reason a candidate wins.

It will play in the outcome of this election, too.

[Peacetrain]

27. To everyone replying to this thread.. I am off and running for Fathers Day..

not ignoring anyones posts.. will hope to get back to you this evening..

[Cha]

47. Happy Father's Day Celebration,

Peacetrain!

[IADEMO2004]

31. Warm and Fuzzy

[democratisphere]

33. Biden has the greatest chance of getting the most votes from

Democrats, Independents and Moderate Republicans. A centrist positioned Democratic candidate is the only way to take back the WH.

[Kahuna7]

36. MSNBC pundits and some candidates keep saying we shouldn't try to attract

WWC, Rust Belt, Indies and Moderate Republicans. I disagree with this. Those groups they are encouraging us to dismiss once voted for Obama.

[democratisphere]

56. We need as many different types of voters as possible.

Joe Biden will do THAT!

[emmaverybo]

49. Agree heartily. At our peril we dismiss this fact.

[democratisphere]

55. Agreed.

Thanks!

[Kahuna7]

35. I don't know. This might have something to do with it...

Fox News is an A rated poll.

Link to tweet

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-6-16
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-democrats-want-a-steady-leader-biden-leads-trump-by-10-points.amp

[Faux pas]

37. Because the

media is shoving him up our asses.

[MineralMan]

39. Well, there's a lovely metaphor!

[MrsCoffee]

41. .

[JI7]

69. except they aren't . he got attention when he announced but it has gone down

other candidates have been doing town halls and other things which get them on tv while Biden has mostly been out of the national spotlight .

[mtnsnake]

73. There is a lot of truth to that.

The media has wanted Biden in the race starting well over a year ago. It's all about ratings with them, and what better way to raise their ratings than to have someone with tons of baggage enter the race.

[Faux pas]

75. Thank you

mtnsnake for seeing the truth!

[pnwmom]

38. Name recognition plus association with Obama. But only Sanders would have name recognition

as high, since he ran last time and had a strong showing.

DUers knew people like Warren, Booker, and Harris, but not the average American.

[Cha]

61. Yeah, you keep saying that like Biden doesn't

have the experience and qualifications to start getting the country in order on day one.

And, it's still not working.

[pnwmom]

63. You keep saying that like Warren, Harris, Booker, Klobuchar, and Inslee don't have the experience

and qualifications to start getting the country in order on day one.

Just like that one-term Senator, Barack Obama, who had to take office during the most severe recession since the Great Depression.

And any of the candidates I named could put together an excellent transition team full of highly experienced Democrats, just like Obama did.

[Cha]

64. No, you're putting words in my mouth..

I'm sure they're quite qualified.. I just like Biden's qualifications and experience more.

[TwilightZone]

66. Warren's name recognition is nearly 100%.

The name recognition argument in reference to Warren is false. She's much more high-profile than the others, in part because of the unwanted attention from Trump.

[pnwmom]

68. You mean Trump mocking her as Pocahontas? That's not name recognition.

That's attempted-insult-recognition.

Most Americans couldn't tell you what she had accomplished over her career, unlike the former VP or Bernie. (A few years ago they couldn't have identified Bernie, either.)

[Demsrule86]

88. Sure it is and it clearly shows the danger if she runs.

[pnwmom]

91. She's been risking as Sanders has been dropping because voters are listening.

And attempting to insult her by comparing her to a beloved Indian figure doesn't work.

[WinstonSmith4740]

40. This says it all for me...

He is the one people feel can actually pull our ashes out of the fires with our allies.. knows all the handles that need to be pulled to get embassies filled etc..

Democrats suffer from an embarrassment of riches right now. We have more strong, highly qualified people running than the Republicans could ever hope to have. But for me, I think Biden is necessary. We need a steady hand to get this country back on the right track, repair bruised alliances, and stand up to strong men. My ideal would be Biden/Harris or Biden/Buttigieg...actually Biden and any of the next generation candidates. They're all excellent. But this is not the time for "on the job training". We need someone smart who knows the job and is already respected on the world stage.

[peggysue2]

45. Bingo!

Think that's it exactly. Joe Biden has years of experience and relationships which makes a huge difference in reassembling what Trump and his enablers have done their utmost to tear apart.

It's going to take a seasoned hand, someone who knows what they're doing to get a handle on putting the country back on course. That includes domestic programs, of course, but also repairing/strengthening the bonds with our allies and pushing back with vigor against the rising authoritarianism around the world. There's no question that Joe Biden is the only candidate with foreign policy chops. He's done the work before; he knows the people involved and can kick-start our reemergence onto the world stage, not as a blustering bully but as the nation we are: a leading Democratic Republic for whom the rule of law actually means something.

This is Joe Biden's moment. If he captures the nomination then pairs himself with a young, dynamic VP (lots to choose from), we will win in 2020. And that is something we must do. If we want a country to live in, that is, and/or a world for our children to inhabit.

[emmaverybo]

50. Says it all and all well-said.

[KentuckyWoman]

44. I have not yet decided.

Biden is the best known nationally of the bunch. Longevity of media attention and VP helps. I have my problems with Biden's past record, but zero problems with supporting him if he is chosen.

However, the rest of the pack need and deserves the chance to get their message out. So far all of them have big pluses and a few small minuses. For me it will probably come down to the wire on who I choose. I don't think we go wrong with anyone.

[tonedevil]

53. His entering the race...

was the last obvious game changer. He did that masterfully. Teasing out the announcement so he was the frontrunner immediately and even now he's been holding back. The debates are the next obvious opportunity for a change in the dynamics. If he's still the frontrunner six months from now it will start to have some meaning.

[Mike Nelson]

54. I think the polls...

… that matter will begin after these upcoming first two debates. I'm looking forward to them... There are so many good candidates!

[question everything]

57. One analysis this morning found that when independents are added to the polls

they are looking for moderate experienced and, yes, white.

[Hekate]

59. Excellent observations, Peacetrain. My gods do I want the federal government repaired...

The GOP may surprise Joe by refusing to work with him -- or maybe he won't be surprised at all, and it's just that he likes to project optimism whenever he can.

The current state of the federal government in all its ramifications is just frightening.

[Gothmog]

60. Joe Biden is our most electable candidate

[noiretextatique]

62. I think it's real simple: he's the favorite

Of the party establishment. I don't think it is much deeper than that, for most D voters.

[aikoaiko]

65. I think he still has the lead because we haven't had debates yet.

[Skya Rhen]

76. A neighbor of mine put it this way, "America needs a proven leader, not a trainee..."

[mtnsnake]

72. Comfort zone. Once voters become more comfortable with the OTHER candidates, Biden won't be leading

any longer.

It's just a matter of time that the voters will get to know the other candidates better, become much more comfortable with them, and then switch their preference to one of the other major candidates who gain their confidence. For example, Klobuchar will eventually surpass Biden in the polls when the voters actually get to know and hear her. Same for the other more well known candidates such as Buttigieg, Warren, Harris, and O'Rourke.

Once the same voters get to hear more of Biden in the debates, town halls, or whatever, they'll realize that he isn't nearly as "safe" as they thought he was. Not trying to bust your bubble, Peacetrain, but I think it is inevitable that Joe Biden's lead is about to dissolve.

[shanny]

77. Universal name recognition, nostalgia

and a lack of knowledge of the other candidates among the general public.

Please note: if Biden is at 35% (which, in aggregate, is a little high), that means 65% of Democrats want somebody else. Despite the name recognition and nostalgia.

I'm interested in seeing the debates and what happens next.

[disndat]

83. The Democrats are eyeing

the electoral college. I think that's the top reason for Biden's lead.

[Skittles]

84. because people think they know him

[Demsrule86]

85. Biden was the first to put climate legislation on thr floor of the senate.

He will do all that is possible.

[honest.abe]

90. Our best bet to get rid of the disease in the WH.

Doctor Joe can do it.