Biden leads Sanders by 8 in Iowa, 13 in NH and Warren by 20 in South Carolina.

[Drunken Irishman]

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0ByVu4fDHYJgVSm5SVnVXZHBkOVpPQXpXX0pPWF9YSHhVb1g0/view

These are strong numbers for Biden, especially since a good amount proclaimed his candidacy dead after the Hyde flap - if anything, Biden is solidifying his support heading into the debates.

[MineralMan]

1. Yes doing OK.

[stonecutter357]

2. K&R

[Cha]

3. Thanks for this, DI..

yeah, "many" were wrong.. wishful thinking.

[Gothmog]

4. sanders is below 10% in South Carolina

Link to tweet

[JI7]

5. maybe the problem is they haven't heard the most profound speech since we lost mlk

[Cha]

6. Somehow I don't think that's

going to go over too well with our POC Voters.

[BannonsLiver]

16. Wait till Killer Mike hits the campaign trail in SC

[Cha]

7. Thank You for that, Goth!

Link to tweet

[comradebillyboy]

9. I recently read that Bernie has been investing a lot of time and

resources in South Carolina. Looks like that investment isn't paying off very well.

[customerserviceguy]

8. SC is Biden's to lose

Unless he does a major gaffe on the level of "You cannot go to a 7-11 or a Dunkin' Donuts unless you have a slight Indian accent," about African-Americans, he's going to win the SC primary.

[Scurrilous]

10. K&R

[NYMinute]

11. K&R

Steady as she goes Joe ....

[Indygram]

12. Polls mean nothing this far out

http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/jeb-bush-surges-lead-gop-pack-new-2016-poll

From June 22, 2015

** Who gets left off that first debate stage? The NBC/WSJ poll measured 16 GOP candidates in our horserace question. And here are the 10 Republicans who make our poll’s Top 10 – the criteria being used for the first GOP debate in August – and the six who get left off:

Jeb Bush 22%
Scott Walker 17%
Marco Rubio 14%
Ben Carson 11%
Mike Huckabee 9%
Rand Paul 7%
Rick Perry 5%
Ted Cruz 4%
Chris Christie 4%
Carly Fiorina 2%
Donald Trump 1%
Lindsey Graham 1%
John Kasich 1%
Bobby Jindal 0%
Rick Santorum 0%
George Pataki 0%

[Drunken Irishman]

15. How far out is too far out?

Because polls cemented Trump as the leading candidate in July, 2015 - a spot he'd hold for pretty much the remainder of the primary.



So, are we still going to use this talking point in a month - or find another thing to dismiss polling?

[Peacetrain]

17. Oh my God.. that is an awesome chart..I was smiling so big.. I just started laughing

out loud.. I did not realize how early on he locked that Rep. campaign up..

[Celerity]

18. Interesting chart, Rump surged late July and August, then appears to be tailing off where you cut it

the surge in late July into August



then the fall off, with 3 outliers the first 2 weeks of October

[Drunken Irishman]

19. Trump surged the second he announced.

I believe he announced on 6/14/15 and instantly shot up the polls despite polling in the low single-digits prior to his announcement. There was a period of time where his nomination looked precarious but only lost his lead (average of polls) for three days to Carson in very early November (and we're talking less than an overall percentage difference, so, statistically tied).

I can't remember what happened at that point to push Carson up in the polls. Reading articles from then, they're kinda vague on it - but say he took the lead after an October debate.

[DesertRat]

20. Wow, good chart

He really took the lead almost as soon as he rode down that escalator.

[Tarheel_Dem]

13. K&R

[Cha]

14. Oh haven't you heard.. that..

"..polls mean nothing this far out.. ".. so you just bury any news of these numbers coming down the pipe line!