Interesting polling insight into why Biden might be leading - and why his message is what it is.

[Drunken Irishman]

Digging a bit into the latest CBS News poll on the Democratic nomination and there are some telling numbers that may explain why A) Biden is leading and B) why his message is being crafted the way it is.

You can find the breakdown of the poll here.

Overall, Biden leads the field with 31% of the vote - Warren is second at 17 and Sanders 16. Harris is the only other candidate polling above ten-percent (right at 10%).

75% of Democrats think Biden will probably beat Trump. Only 2% think he's a long-shot. The only other candidate who comes closest in the 'will probably beat Trump' category is Sanders, and it's not very close. 51% say he probably would win.

This does hammer home the idea that Biden is perceived to be the candidate who can best beat Trump - and this is an important factor, as 78% of Democrats think beating Trump is extremely important when it comes to whether they support a candidate.

With that out of the way, here's a look at messaging and what could explain Biden's positioning nationally.

48% of Democrats want the nominee to focus only on issues and stay above the insults and ignore it. That's a significant number, but it's not a majority. In fact, 42% believe the Democratic nominee should fight back if insulted, though not start any insults. However, 9% want the nominee to take on Trump directly and lob insults themselves. Not a big number, but combined with the other 42% and a majority of Democrats want the nominee to go after Trump, either preemptively, or in retaliation - something I think Biden does well.

45% of Democrats want the nominee a progressive/liberal - which is significant, especially when only 27% want the nominee to be a moderate/centrist. Again, though, we're not seeing a majority here. 28% say it doesn't matter - and that's the key finding here. When you couple that with the 28% who want a moderate/centrist, it becomes clear - 55% of Democrats would be perfectly fine nominating a moderate. Conversely, 73% would be fine nominating a progressive. But at the end of the day, ideological purism isn't a deciding factor for a huge chunk of Democrats. Many progressives in the party are unlikely to be turned off by Biden if he wins the nomination, and that again plays into his strengths.

60% of Democrats also do not care what the candidate's age is - something that absolutely helps both Biden and Bernie. In fact, 9% say they want an older candidate (though, older is not a definitive age - just older in general terms). So, nearly 70% either want an older candidate or don't care what their age is. Youth is NOT necessarily an asset in the primary (like I think it was for Obama in 2008).

65% of Democrats wants the potential next Democratic president to work with Republicans to get things done - while only 35% want them to get things done without the GOP. This is significant because it goes to the heart of Biden's campaign messaging. And it seems to be the correct call.

69% of Democrats also want the focus to be on beating Trump in 2020 - not a candidate who talks about impeaching Trump.

Still, there are areas where Biden's message stands in contrast to the party - though, the divide isn't significant.

47% want the nominee to focus on returning the country the way it was before Trump - while 53% want a more progressive agenda than what was advanced under Obama.

Also, 67% of Democrats want a nominee who motivates Democrats who stayed home last go around, over 33% who want a nominee that attempts to convince Trump voters to vote Democratic.

Interesting numbers, regardless. I think it shows Biden's support is pretty strong, as his messaging does appear to be aligning with the party. Whether all that changes, though, remains to be seen.

[Cha]

1. Kinda surprised a 100% don't think so..

This does hammer home the idea that Biden is perceived to be the candidate who can best beat Trump - and this is an important factor, as 78% of Democrats think beating Trump is extremely important when it comes to whether they support a candidate.

I certainly do.

[peggysue2]

10. Because without beating Trump . . .

nothing else matters, Cha. As we've been screaming to the rooftops for weeks

So yes, I'm surprised that number isn't even higher. Unless there is a segment of Democrats deluding themselves that this will be easy-peasy, that any Dem candidate would kick the Trumpster and his enablers to the curb.

Which is completely wrong-headed. We need a resounding win, a complete repudiation that leaves no room for crying foul or any other dirty trick the Republicans will try to throw our way. As bad as Trump is (and he's historically the worst) he still has the advantage as an incumbent. Twisting his fingers and those of the GOP off the reins of power is going to require a Herculean effort.

Joe Biden is currently leading because he has his finger on the pulse of the majority. This poll is an indication of that. If that trend holds, he'll be the one to take it to Trump.

[plimsoll]

11. Or, because many Biden supporters are just as abusive as the Bernie Bros.

Joe lost my vote because of his supporters, not himself.

[zaj]

12. ?

I haven't noticed anything like that. What have you encountered?

[plimsoll]

13. Well, basically called stupid

because I didn't agree that Joe was the best. At my age I judge a candidate less on his statements that the supporters he attracts. Some Joe supporters are so insistent that only he can beat Trump that supporting anyone else means you're pro-Trump.

Joe lost me at that point.

[zaj]

14. Polls suggest a few things...

1) a few Dems might be able to beat Trump
2) Biden has the lead because people before he's most likely to do that
3) beating Trump is the most important thing this election cycle

Hopefully these are things we can all agree on.

[plimsoll]

15. Maybe so, but if you honestly expect people to support your candidate

Last edited Sun Jun 16, 2019, 10:30 PM - Edit history (1)

while being abusive. You may not be very familiar with human nature.

He'll get my vote when he's the last democrat standing.

On Edit:

No matter what we think this is a coalition party.
We don’t all agree on everything.
The wing of the party that supports Joe Biden has been dominant for many years. However, when that wing decides it can be abusive to the coalition partners we lose.

I don’t dislike Joe Biden; he’s just not my first choice. So far the only candidate’s supporters who have come out swinging at the people who disagree with them have been die-hard Bernie supporters and Joe Biden supporters.

If you can’t support your coalition partners even if you aren’t in 100% agreement you are publically announcing that you don’t support the coalition. So my position is less not-Biden, and more not anti-coalition.

And I’m sorry to say that some Joe Biden supports have let me know that only abject obedience to their candidate is acceptable.

[zaj]

21. I haven't seen the Biden attacks, but...

... there is a polite way to discuss disagreements. Hopefully we are proving that here.

[plimsoll]

22. Agreed,

and I try to judge people on their own behavior.

Within our coalitions we should be prepared to hear disagreements.

[zaj]

25. Agreed.

[Lordquinton]

16. They also show us

1) Almost the entire dem field lead trump
2) Biden's lead is steadily slipping away as other candidates gain more recognition
3) beating your opponent is the objective for every election ever, and the suggestion that the party hasn't been focused on that is troubling.

[Drunken Irishman]

19. Except Biden's lead isn't slowly slipping away anymore.

His polling lead has been steady since late May. According to RCP, he's only lost about three-points nationally in that span.

But even more, his lead over other Democrats has remained fluid:

He led Bernie by 17 points on May 22nd, and now leads Bernie by 16.4 - so, only a drop of .6%.
He led Warren by 24.9 points on May 22nd, and now leads her by 21 - so, only a drop of four points.

I think you're under the illusion Biden is in a free fall but that just isn't the case.

[Cha]

24. I wouldn't say anything like that to anybody.

And, I have seen nothing from Biden Supporters like you're referring to.. or I would say something to them.

That's okay.. you have a good candidate in Jay Inslee.

[treestar]

33. a couple of people you were talking to?

man, it's not that personal. There will be 120 million people voting. There are millions of biden supporters.

[Cha]

23. What?! You're the one insulting Biden Supporters.

All you have are insults.. and no proof.

[treestar]

32. So other people make up your mind for you?

[marble falls]

20. Any of them can beat "the president", but which can fire up voters is important because ...

we need to take as many downticket offices as we can. Who I think can do it will be my choice.

As a Texan I really wish Beto would run against Cornyn and fire up the electorate here again the way he did running against Cruz. It can be argued added 12 women of color into our legislature and Congress.

[Sherman A1]

2. It is really way too early for all this polling

And horse race stuff. Let’s hear what the candidates have to offer in the way of a plan for our collective future and then make a choice based upon what we think best.

[BootinUp]

3. Excellent analysis. Nt

[emmaverybo]

4. Thanks for the work. Educated me.

[yonder]

5. K & R

[NYMinute]

6. Great analysis nt

[Gothmog]

7. Interesting polling

[Doitnow]

8. So lots of people think Biden will be able to work with Republicans just because he says

he will. How long and hard did Obama try to do just that? They gave not an inch. In order to get the Senate to do anything, Dems would have to win the Senate and get McTurd to take a back seat. They may do it, but I don't see a lot of emphasis on it yet.

Looking at polls right now is probably too soon, but just for kicks, I'd like to see a poll showing how Sanders and other candidates would do against 45 in a few states as long as people would prefer a more progressive candidate than Biden.

[emmaverybo]

26. Actually Biden has negotiated with Republicans in the past. As detailed in a well

sourced entry in Wikipedia:

Biden played a key role in gaining Senate support for several major pieces of Obama legislation, and was a main factor in convincing Senator Arlen Specter to switch from the Republican to Democrat. .[258][259]

He led the successful administration effort to gain Senate approval for the New START treaty.[258][259] In December 2010, Biden's advocacy within the White House for a middle ground, followed by his direct negotiations with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, were instrumental in producing the administration's compromise tax package that revolved around a temporary extension of the Bush tax cuts.[259][260] Biden then took the lead in trying to sell the agreement to a reluctant Democratic caucus in Congress,[259][261] which was passed as the Tax Relief, Unemployment Insurance Reauthorization, and Job Creation Act of 2010.

In March 2011, Obama detailed Biden to lead negotiations between both houses of Congress and the White House in resolving federal spending levels for the rest of the year, and avoiding a government shutdown.[264] By May 2011, a "Biden panel" with six congressional members was trying to reach a bipartisan deal on raising the U.S. debt ceiling as part of an overall deficit reduction plan.[265][266]

The U.S. debt ceiling crisis developed over the next couple of months, but it was again Biden's relationship with McConnell that proved to be a key factor in breaking a deadlock and finally bringing about a bipartisan deal to resolve it, in the form of the Budget Control Act of 2011, signed on August 2, 2011, the same day that an unprecedented U.S. default had loomed.[267][268][269] Biden had spent the most time bargaining with Congress on the debt question of anyone in the administration,[268] and one Republican staffer said, "Biden's the only guy with real negotiating authority, and [McConnell] knows that his word is good. He was a key to the deal."[267]

[Cha]

28. Thank You for posting that on Biden's

successful negotiations with repubs.

Biden played a key role in gaining Senate support for several major pieces of Obama legislation, and was a main factor in convincing Senator Arlen Specter to switch from the Republican to Democrat. .[258][259]

He led the successful administration effort to gain Senate approval for the New START treaty.[258][259] In December 2010, Biden's advocacy within the White House for a middle ground, followed by his direct negotiations with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, were instrumental in producing the administration's compromise tax package that revolved around a temporary extension of the Bush tax cuts.[259][260] Biden then took the lead in trying to sell the agreement to a reluctant Democratic caucus in Congress,[259][261] which was passed as the Tax Relief, Unemployment Insurance Reauthorization, and Job Creation Act of 2010.

In March 2011, Obama detailed Biden to lead negotiations between both houses of Congress and the White House in resolving federal spending levels for the rest of the year, and avoiding a government shutdown.[264] By May 2011, a "Biden panel" with six congressional members was trying to reach a bipartisan deal on raising the U.S. debt ceiling as part of an overall deficit reduction plan.[265][266]

The U.S. debt ceiling crisis developed over the next couple of months, but it was again Biden's relationship with McConnell that proved to be a key factor in breaking a deadlock and finally bringing about a bipartisan deal to resolve it, in the form of the Budget Control Act of 2011, signed on August 2, 2011, the same day that an unprecedented U.S. default had loomed.[267][268][269] Biden had spent the most time bargaining with Congress on the debt question of anyone in the administration,[268] and one Republican staffer said, "Biden's the only guy with real negotiating authority, and [McConnell] knows that his word is good. He was a key to the deal."[267

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Biden

[emmaverybo]

30. Thank you for the link. Important and I realized this a.m. I left it out. NT

[Cha]

36. You're Welcome.. I tracked

it down from your "Wikipedia" clue.

[Turin_C3PO]

9. Thanks for the post.

Very informative!

[Lordquinton]

17. What's your insight into why his lead is slipping?

[Drunken Irishman]

18. Like many candidates, he received a boost and leveled off...

Not dissimilar than a boost a candidate typically gets out of a convention (a convention bounce). But Biden's lead has remained fairly consistent the last month:



On May 22nd, he had 34.7% of the vote. Today, it's 32.2% - only a marginal drop.

[Lordquinton]

39. What happens when you go further back in data?

Looking at the graph it seems like he dropped the same amount that Sanders did, so why is it big news that Sanders dropped, but "only marginal" for Biden?

[Tarheel_Dem]

27. K&R

[MineralMan]

29. That's a good analysis, I think.

Looking at the aggregate polling results, Biden has been ahead of the rest of the field since the beginning of the charting. Even before he had announced, he led the polling. Once he announced, he moved into a double-digit lead, which he has not lost since.

Part of that is the large pool of candidates, where non-Biden votes can be distributed. Down the list are a number of candidates with single-digit polling numbers. It's not completely clear where those preferences will be distributed when those candidates are no longer attracting people as their preferred candidate.

In any case, Biden has attracted and held a solid lead all along. That group will probably not shift to his closest competitors. The battle, at the moment, is really between Sanders and Warren, for the preferences of those who see themselves as progressives. I believe they will vie with each other right through Super Tuesday primaries and still be close in numbers after that.

However, those with preferences for lower-ranking candidates will begin to redistribute themselves. Looking at those other candidates, I think a majority of them will shift to Biden. If that is the case, his lead over the closest competitors will increase.

We won't know how that all plays out, though, until after the Super Tuesday primaries. But, then, the trend will be clearly visible. It's going to be a long, drawn-out primary race until then.

[IronLionZion]

31. We also need Dem majorities in congress

since Mitch McConnell will obstruct any Dem president as much as he can just like he did with Obama

[disndat]

34. The Electoral College is key.

nt.

[Sloumeau]

35. Thanks a bunch for this. ☺

[grantcart]

37. +1

[Honeycombe8]

38. As for "working with" McConnell's & Trump's gang, those who want that will find things have changed.

There is no longer the possibility of each side meeting halfway. Trumper's & McConnell's Repubs have become something unrecognizable, almost un-American.

To "work with" them now means US bending over. They dig in, change rules if necessary, reneg on deals. They want to win. They are not interested in governing. Winning is all that it's about.

It's not our parents' Republican Party, any more.

As for Biden crafting his message to fit, it's the other way around. This is how Biden is and always has been. He didn't carefully craft his message, his stances. The people crafted their responses to fit with Biden. But it shows a symbiotic sameness and the broad appeal that Biden has, when all the other candidates appeal to smaller groups of voters. There isn't another one with broad appeal like Biden, sad to say.

I waited for the Pied Piper to appear. The answer to Trump. The captain to right the ship. He didn't come. I likely won't see such a Democrat in my lifetime, now, since I'm 65. 8 years of Biden, 8 years of a Repub....maybe in 16 years the Pied Piper will appear? I'll be 81...fairly close to death, if you go by the avg lifespan for someone born in early '50s.

[Scurrilous]

40. K&R