Beto O'Rourke moves to 4th place, Warren to 3rd in new Hill/Harris X Poll

[Indygram]

Last edited Mon Jun 17, 2019, 04:24 PM - Edit history (2)

https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/448910-poll-biden-leads-Sanders-by-22-points


He was previously in 6th behind Harris and Buttigieg but has moved ahead of both now.

Current poll results


Last poll results

[TexasTowelie]

1. Perhaps the voters are beginning to look at candidates that would be at are past the retirement age

in most private and public sector jobs? Beto also is attracting attention for his work on veteran affairs and the armed services committee.

[Indygram]

2. He has been doing national TV appearances and people are hearing him

instead of listening to dismissive reporters.

Here is the last results of this same poll.

[hlthe2b]

5. He's also not doing all those embarrassing social media stunts lately.

He had no need to 'humanize' himself unlike some candidates and they were just ridiculously silly.

[Indygram]

7. They weren't actually "stunts" but that's how they were reported

He interviews an immigrant barber and made a silly joke about ear hair and reporters misrepresented it.

But he just keeps working his butt off.

[hlthe2b]

9. Maturing as a candidate is to anticipate and not do stupid stunts--a la Michael Dukakis in the tank

whether editing is the issue or not, they were cringe-inducing and Beto gave them the ammo.

[Indygram]

23. His supporters like his livestreams

And I loved the interview with the barber. Barber shop visits are a tradition in presidential politics as well. People just like to fuss at Beto. It's silly.

[hlthe2b]

24. I'm hardly criticizing doing interviews with a barber--No more than Dukakis going to a military base

But he doesn't have to get in the tank and wear the helmet or in Beto's case, sit down in the chair and discuss his ear hair.

Obviously, he realized (or his staff did) that he needed to create media impressions that allowed his being taken seriously and adapted. Good on him. That hardly rules out classic man-on-the-street type interactions, with which, I agree he has considerable aptitude and skill.

I like Beto. This is not an attack on him. But, not all social media is positive and that which is not is like igniting a fuse for his opponents/critics and yes, the media.

[DesertRat]

32. He needs to attract new supporters

Not just those who are sold on him already. I don't think the haircut video gained him new supporters.

[Indygram]

33. That's what he's doing...

No one works harder than Beto.

Link to tweet

[boomer_wv]

51. Noise.

There's no movement represented between these two. This poll has a MoE of nearly 5 points and the difference from one to another is within a couple. The poll is essentially showing a steady race where Biden leads, Sanders is a distant 2nd, and there is a virtual 4-way tie for 3rd.

[Skittles]

15. THAT WOULD BE GREAT

just Beto's height alone would rattle Trump

Trump would have to wear Melania's shoes to be taller than Beto.

[dalton99a]

21. "Nobody is taller than ME!"

“Nobody weighs more than ME”

[Indygram]

22. I hate to think what shoes he would wear

Heck, he probably wouldn't even do a debate.

[LanternWaste]

38. Then again, perhaps not.

Cool!!! We both implied an hypothesis without any evidence at all to support it. All we need to say anything we want, no matter how absurd is simply preface it with the word 'perhaps.'

[MineralMan]

3. From your link:

Former Vice President Joe Biden leads his closest competitor in the field of Democratic presidential candidates by 22 percentage points, according to a Hill-HarrisX poll released Monday.

In the June 14-15 survey, Biden garnered support from 35 percent of registered voters who identified as Democrats or as independents who favored the party. The next closest candidate was Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), at 13 percent.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) came in third with 7 percent, followed by former Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D-Texas) at 6 percent, Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) at 5 percent and South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 4 percent.

That's one of the largest percentage point leads Biden has shown in a poll so far. Beto has risen a bid in the second group, but Biden's doing very well, indeed.

[Indygram]

4. I don't believe that will last

We shall see after the debates.

[MineralMan]

6. I see.

So, you didn't bother to mention it. I understand.

[Indygram]

8. My OP was about Beto

You're free to start a thread about Biden if you choose, though.

[MineralMan]

11. Yes, I saw that. And I did start a new thread

about that same poll, but showed all of the results, rather than just one candidate's. We all want to know the results of polls here.

[Indygram]

13. I didn't mention other candidates either, but did provide a link

And have since updated with both the new graphic and the last graphic.

Glad you started another thread! I contributed the graphic to the last poll to that one as well.

[dalton99a]

12. +1

[Celerity]

16. this poll has always been a big outlier in terms of all but Biden and Bernie

[MineralMan]

17. OK.

It's a poll. The Hill posted it. What can I say?

[Celerity]

18. not having a go at you at all MM, I respect you as a poster

[MineralMan]

19. Not a problem. All polls are questionable.

But, they're pretty much all we have right now to get a feel for the campaign. Tomorrow, it will be a different poll. If you're like me, you look at them in aggregate and average them out.

But, people are always quoting polls, so I might as well, too, I think.

[Celerity]

20. The Harris X poll always gets many the non Bernie non Biden peeps in a state of angst, lolol

I choose to remain sanguine about it all this early out.

[essadaw]

10. Reporters on the ground

Reporters on the ground have been saying the enthusiasm they are seeing at his events haven’t been matching the polls. Maybe the polls are starting to catch up.

[Indygram]

14. Yes, and anyone watching the livestreams knows he has very strong support

The National News appearances have reminded people how great he is. The debates will help too.

[Skittles]

28. I hope so

yes INDEED

[customerserviceguy]

25. Polls taken after the first debate

will be more meaningful than polls before it. We'll see what happens then.

If anything, this just shows that O'Rourke not hitting the media part of campaign trail as hard as he is lately was a bad move for him.

[Indygram]

30. I don't think him not doing media in and of itself is what had an impact on polls

Instead, it was national media reporters acting all salty for him declining to be interviewed in order to meet actual voters...they were not reporting accurately about him and were dismissive and condescending towards him to "punish" him for not going onto their shows. By him going on the shows now and being seen it countered the inaccuracies being pushed by talking heads.

[customerserviceguy]

36. You've got to do it all

Meet with small groups, and give as many interviews to the press as possible. That's why Buttigieg has been surging.

[Indygram]

37. I think he always intended to do it all

He just didn't want to do it that early. Beto forms his policy positions by meeting and talking to the people most impacted. He learns about the areas they come from, what their issues and concerns are, if they have ideas and opinions. He uses all that he learns to put together his policy proposals. That's why it was important for him to be on the ground first. I like that he does that.

[customerserviceguy]

50. Yes, O'Rourke does his listening thing

And Buttigieg does his leadership thing. By clearly articulating what should be done, and perhaps how it should be accomplished, he looks stronger than someone who says, "So, folks, whaddya wanna do?"

[Indygram]

55. Beto has clear Plans that he put together after learning from people impacted

Immigration: https://betoorourke.com/immigration/
Reproductive Rights: https://betoorourke.com/choice/
Voting Rights: https://betoorourke.com/votingrights/
Climate Change: https://betoorourke.com/climate-change/
LGBTQ+ Equality: https://betoorourke.com/lgbtq/
Access to Capital/Small Business (Geared towards women and minorities): https://betoorourke.com/small-business/

[marylandblue]

40. It's all related, more media gives you more exposure, and

if you make good television, the media likes you better and covers you more favorably. Even the behind the stuff matters. If you and your staff are open and friendly with their staff off-screen, the reporters will be more favorable on screen.

I know someone who works in PR, so I have some idea of how this works in practice.

[RLG]

26. But Beto should quit and run for the Senate seat.

That's politics for you.

I mean, ask Bernie about this.

[Paladin]

29. Glad to see Warren's continued advancement.

Keeping in mind that any of the Democratic candidates would be a vast improvement over the shithead we're burdened with, at present.

[Indygram]

31. Looking at the two graphics to compare and analyze shows that in two weeks...

Numbers for Biden and Booker are stagnant this week.
Bad news for Bernie and Mayor Pete who dropped 3 and 4 points respectively.
Good News for Warren, Beto and Castro who all gained 2 points and for Harris who gained 1 point.

[JI7]

34. Beto is the only other Candidate that can get the Biden Voters

Biden hates to campaign . and this will give Beto an opening to win them over to his side.

[Indygram]

35. I agree...I would really like to see him go to West Virginia

And meet and talk to people there. Same with rust belt states...no one written off and no one taken for granted.

[ancianita]

39. It's the fact that Beto is backed by Big Oil & Gas that keeps me from supporting him. I wish it

weren't so, but that it is so says a lot about him and his Texas background. Good luck.

[essadaw]

41. Beto doesn't Accept PAC Money

He didn’t accept PAC Money during his Senate campaign and hasn’t during his presidential campaign. During his Senate campaign, he donations from individuals working in the oil industry. It is silly to insist that a secretary or janitor etc... should not be able to donate to candidate of choice. Recently he has updated to not accepting even Individual Donations if they are from oil company Executives.

[ancianita]

42. He's #2 receiver of oil& gas donations. Most of his contributors are in other areas.

Maybe you'd care to link his latest non-acceptance of oil company donations.



https://www.opensecrets.org/industries/recips.php?ind=E01++

https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/industries?cid=N00033540&cycle=2018

[essadaw]

43. Beto has not accepted ANY PAC Money from oil companies

He has not accepted PAC money from any companies. He only accepts donations from individuals.
Your links are misleading—Beto raised more money from individual donations than any other Senate candidate, so Individual donations from workers in all industries-including oil-were very high But these were from people not companies

[ancianita]

44. You link nothing, so I looked it up. Technically he's received $ through, but not from, a PAC.

J Street PAC lists O'Rourke as one of the candidates it supports in the 2018 midterm elections and offers a link on its website for anyone to donate to O'Rourke directly. The PAC also hosted an event to collect individual donations to put directly toward his campaign. The Federal Election Commission calls these "conduit contributions ," which means both the individual donor and the organization that gathered the money must be listed on campaign finance forms.

He later turned down any more donations from individuals through the PAC, even though it's technically not considered PAC money. So I've answered my own question.

It's still the $557,701 received from oil & gas that stands out to me. Only Ted Cruz has received more.

So, which of his stances stand out to you from the ontheissues.org summary? I ask because his 4th place appeal across the party puzzles me. Is it mostly his youth? charisma? Just what likely issues will he open his debate with to the nation?

I'm open to any O'Rourke endorsers here who can tell me what makes him stand out to them.

https://www.ontheissues.org/Beto_O%60Rourke.htm#Immigration

[Indygram]

46. The only "oil and gas" money Beto got was from regular low level employees, like gas station clerks

truck drivers, rig workers. People list the industry they work in...like education, food service, medical, etc. Texas has a lot of oil and gas companies that employ average citizens who support and donate to Beto. It is NOT companies giving that money. If oil companies were "buying" a politician they'd give a hell of a lot more than 500k.

[Indygram]

45. That was pushed by a right wing PAC and it's not true

Please don't feed into right wing misinformation. I'm going to give the benefit of the doubt that you did not know that is not true.

[ancianita]

47. I know nothing of a right wing PAC push. I got my info from NBC in Texas through AP Fact Check.

https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/politics/AP-Fact-Check-Beto-ORourke-Gets-Money-Through-PAC-Not-From-It-490180071.html

Don't accuse me of something without asking where I got my info from first.

And the info IS true that J Street PAC is a liberal advocacy group that lists candidates that individuals can directly donate to.

[Indygram]

52. You keep accusing Beto of taking money from oil and gas companies and he doesn't

That is false. You have been informed that it is false multiple times.

[ancianita]

56. You keep accusing me of accusing. I've linked OpenSecrets, that takes info his campaign GIVES

to them, multiple times. If you don't want to take their word for it, fine. Tell THEM their info is false, not me.

[JI7]

48. he is supported by people who work there. just like ny will have a lot of people

who work in the financial sector.

do you blame the person taking your order at McDonald's for the company business practices ?

[ancianita]

49. Explain how your analogy parallels a person running for president accepting what OpenSecrets

classifies Oil & Gas contributions. If individuals were so important, one would assume they'd have their own category, so I assume that the Oil & Gas industry donations mean something in a U.S. presidential election. https://www.opensecrets.org/industries/recips.php?ind=E01++

Are you trying to say that OpenSecrets is wrong?

[dflprincess]

53. When you make a donation to a candidate, you have to list your occupation

and Open Secrets classifies the money as coming from a particular business or industry. My contribution would get lumped into either insurance or a health care category (with my employer it could go either way, though health care would be more accurate for me). That does not mean I don't support single payer or that I'm hoping the candidate won't.

[essadaw]

54. PACs Are the mechanism for companies to donate

One reason Beto’s Senate run was so amazing is that he did not accept Any money from PACs/companies and raised money entirely from individual donations from actual people and he still raised more money than any other Senate candidate in history.

As mentioned by several people above, if I donate $50 as an individual to my candidate of choice, I have to list my occupation which is then classified as a donation from whatever industry I’m working in. But a $50 donation from an individual is far different from multi millions from PACs/ companies. Individuals are limited to I think around $2800 but most people probably give five dollars here and $10 there to candidates they like.

If corporate money in politics is a concern for you, Beto is actually one of the few who only accepts money from individual people. Bernie and Warren are others and maybe there’s someone else. But most of the candidates do take PAC money

[ancianita]

57. It's not a concern for me. I never once referred to PAC. Others did. I myself donated directly to

Obama rather than go through ActBlue or some other democratic group (I did the same with Inslee and Castro). So I am aware of how this works.