Biden shows a 22% lead over closest rival in new poll.

[MineralMan]

This is a remarkable showing. Beto O'Rourke, too, has jumped a couple of positions and is now in fourth place according to this HarrisX poll, as published by "The Hill." Remarkably, nobody but Biden in this poll exceeded the 15% rule delegate cutoff.

[George II]

1. I suspect that shortly after the debate next week we'll see a shift in the polls and....

....some of the <1%ers will face reality and drop out.

[MineralMan]

12. Probably so. It will be interesting to see how the

redistribution looks, I think.

[cwydro]

2. Good to see.

He has the widest appeal at this point to the most voters I think.

[Indygram]

3. Here is the image from the prior poll for comparison

[MineralMan]

14. Yes. Biden has the same numbers in that one, too.

Bernie has dropped a bit and some of the others have changed place, but there's Biden, with the same 35%. The only thing that has changed for him is his margin over the closest rival. It went up. Also, the undecided 17% is still the same, too.

[Indygram]

19. Yeah, Bernie and Mayor Pete dropped

And Warren and Beto made gains.

[MineralMan]

21. Yes, there's some shifting around in the second tier.

That's not unexpected. I figure that will continue.

[DrToast]

30. +/- 4.8% points

There isn't much of a difference between these two polls.

[Tiggeroshii]

4. It will be the largest lead he ever has.

And will likely hastily dissipate immediately following the first debate as other candidates gain.

[Skya Rhen]

8. All of the experts in the media said the same thing in relation to him officially entering the race.

They were so certain that the day he announced would be the best day for him in the polls then, after that, his numbers would sink. Boy were they all wrong.

But let's continue to move the goalpost - shall we? Biden will just continue to prove all of the naysayers wrong. I, personally, enjoy it...

[Tiggeroshii]

11. You're right. It could go entirely the other way as well.

Or maintain his lead. However, we won't really know until the debates allow primary voters to get to know all of the candidates. Polling this early is based entirely on name recognition. And when we talk about moving goalposts, I go back to how Bernie was not supposed to win even one primary during the last presidential primaries. If polling this early was correct, he wouldn't have.

That being said, he won 23. In comparison, Biden has run for president twice already and has won a total of 0 primaries...

[MineralMan]

23. In reality, most primary voters won't watch the first debates.

It's too early, and there is plenty else going on, because it's Summer. They might change the rankings somewhat, but I suspect most of the movement will be in the second and lower tiers. I expect Biden to get a bump, as well. He'll do just fine in the debate. Still, each of them is only going to have limited time to make their case, since there are 10 people in each debate.

I don't know why people think Biden will do poorly and lose poll results from it. I think he'll probably have a net gain.

[Tiggeroshii]

33. I don't know about others but

I don't think he will do well because I believe his views to be out of touch with the broader swaths of primary voters and that will be obvious in the debates.I obviously cpuld be completely wrong though and it will bee interesting to see.

[MineralMan]

15. Perhaps. We shall see.

Actually, he might go up a few points, too. Plus, some of the undecideds might decide after the debate. I won't make any predictions, but will wait and see.

[Tiggeroshii]

22. Very true. Right now, all polls can be taken with a grain of salt. That goes for GE polls as well.

Polls this early in June of 2015 showed Hillary ahead by 24 points on Trump. Unless the election were actually held today, there is almost no point to them.

[Drunken Irishman]

35. I agree - but I also think 2016 numbers are different.

Trump was not an incumbent president. I'd wager head-to-head polling at this point against an incumbent is telling. Obama didn't trail any of the Republicans consistently at this point in 2011 - and Bush didn't trail any Democrats at this point in 2003. Both won reelection.

[Tiggeroshii]

37. Bush trailed Kerry by 6 ponts or so all of June in 2003*

Not the extent to what trump is trailing all our front runners, but still notable.

That being said, I really hope you are right. I jist jave my nagging doubts after being burned so many times

[Drunken Irishman]

38. I can't find any poll where Kerry, or any Democrat, led Bush in 2003.

https://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen6.htm

Here's some polls from around this point in the campaign back in 2003:

ABC News Poll. May 28-June 1, 2003. N=1,029 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3. Fieldwork by TNS Intersearch.

"If the 2004 presidential election were being held today, and the candidates were George W. Bush, the Republican, and Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, for whom would you vote?"

Bush: 58%
Clinton: 34%

Andres McKenna Research. July 8-10, 2003. N=600 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 4.

Bush: 51%
Lieberman: 32%

Bush: 50%
Gephardt: 30%

In fact, Kerry didn't even register a poll until August that year, when Zogby did a poll of the top Democratic candidates - and none of 'em led:

Zogby International for DraftWesleyClark.com. Aug. 16-19, 2003. N=1,019 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.2.

Bush: 48%
Lieberman: 43%

Bush: 49%
Gephardt: 43%

Bush: 50%
Kerry: 41%

Bush: 50%
Dean: 40%

Bush: 49%
Clark: 37%

The first poll I can find where Bush actually trailed a named Democrat (so, not just generic) was a Quinnipiac University Poll from Jan. 28-31, 2004 - and Kerry, after wins in Iowa and New Hampshire - led 51-43.

[Tiggeroshii]

40. No i was wrong. I thought it was 2003 not 2004.

[Drunken Irishman]

34. Maybe but I feel we've been hearing this since he announced.

When Biden put out his first video, the narrative was that his lead would collapse quickly. It didn't.

When Biden held his rally in Philadelphia, officially kicking off his campaign, many predicted his lead would collapse quickly. It didn't.

When Biden changed positions on Hyde, many said that was the beginning of the end. It wasn't.

Now it's the debates - and then what?

Maybe it's time to face the reality: Biden is well-liked by Democrats and has a strong level of support that is propelling him.

[Tiggeroshii]

36. Consistent polling like this by January phd next year will

Probably mean he has a lock. But even when that happened in 2016 it wasnt actually the case. The only polls that matter are the ones on election day, as they say

[NYMinute]

5. K&R nt

[Scurrilous]

7. K&R

[MarcA]

9. FWIW 538 gives HarrisX a C+ n/t

[MineralMan]

16. OK. Thanks.

[marylandblue]

10. His problem is that his opposition is divided and he is well below 50%

If they stay divided, he wins, but has weak support because most people wanted someone else. If the voters consolidate around one of the challengers, he has a real race on his hands.

[MineralMan]

24. It would be truly remarkable if anyone had 50% in a field of 24.

Think about it. Frankly, it's remarkable that anyone has 35%, really.

Biden has a very strong plurality in the current polls. His margin over the top competitor is larger than that competitor's polling percentage. Think about that, too.

In fact, if you add up the next two competitors, his margin is still larger.

It's an enviable position to be in for such a crowded field.

[marylandblue]

29. Yes you are correct, but I expect the field to winnow down soon.

After the first two debates, anyone still at 1% will be under pressure to drop out and many will. Also, I think Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg and O'Rourke are appealing to the same group of voters. They will start to consolidate around one of them, whoever seems strongest. Personally, I will do that, except I probably won't go for Sanders.

[JI7]

13. Biden and Beto have the same type of supporters

i think in the end most will go to Beto just based on their campaigning. Biden doesn't like to campaign and Beto is one of the best at it.

the media has made it seem like pete was hurting beto. but it's actually Biden getting into the race which hurt him since they have the same type of supporters.

[MineralMan]

17. Or, it could go the other way, just as easily.

We'll have to wait and see, won't we?

[Indygram]

39. Not likely

Beto appeals more to people who want something to vote FOR in addition to beating Trump. His supporters are devoted to his campaign. They aren't simply supporting him just because they think he's the most likely to win. They know he can win and they believe in and trust him. They don't want to settle.

[honest.abe]

18. Looks like he weathered the Hyde amendment issue.

As was expected.

[MineralMan]

20. I don't think it ever hurt him at all, really.

Not even a blip, really.

Everyone doing news pretty much pointed out that the other candidates who have House or Senate experience also voted for bills that contained that language. There wasn't much the other candidates could say about it, due to that inconvenient fact. It wasn't an issue that had separation among the candidates.

[honest.abe]

32. Yep.

The biggest "blip" was mainly with those who already had a bias to another candidate.

[SouthernProgressive]

25. "Remarkably, nobody but Biden in this poll exceeded the 15% rule delegate cutoff. "

That was not polled.

[LakeArenal]

26. Seems some grapes are souring.

[MineralMan]

27. But the debates! Wait for the debates!

But, wait - Joe Biden is a Master Debater. (Did i spell that right? You gotta be careful with that phrase.)

[LakeArenal]

28. Eh, either might be good. 🤷🏼‍♀️

[Cha]

31. KR!