Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumThe Media Will Pick the Democratic Presidential Candidate
The real campaign plays out in Manhattan and Washington television studios
by John Ellis
[snip]
Enter the polls. Polls are the MRIs of electability and provide pseudo-scientific precision to forecasting future outcomes. They enable TV talking heads to winnow candidates out and, to paraphrase the late Senator Fred Harris, winnow candidates in.
[snip]
The problem, for the moment anyway, is that electability isnt thinning the field. Sanders and Warren are beating Trump in most hypothetical matchups in national and key state polls, and sometimes by margins outside the margin for error. And in some battleground states, the second-tier Democratic candidates are beating Trump as well. Its hard to make the case that Sanders and Warren and Harris are unelectable if the polling data say that each would win.
[snip]
The real campaign plays out in Manhattan and Washington television studios. Cable news outlets (especially) make every effort to push the campaign into television studios and away from the campaign trail.
Because of budget concerns, the pressure to anoint a winner increases as the early March Super Tuesday primaries near. We saw this in 2016. Hillary Clinton was declared the winner long before she actually won the nomination. This time, California will be deemed decisive. Whoever wins there, it will be said, wins the nomination.
[snip]
The finalists will be chosen by Iowa and New Hampshire. The finals will play out against the backdrop of electability. If surveys show that Warren is just as likely to beat Trump as, say, Biden, shell win Super Tuesday and, in all likelihood, be the nominee.
Which brings us to one last point about the Democratic primary and caucus electorate. They want the nomination process over quickly. Preferably, theyd like a nominee by mid-March. Whether its Biden or Warren or Buttigieg or Sanders, at some level, doesnt matter. They just want to drop the gloves and start the brawl, with or without an agenda.
https://www.commondreams.org/views/2019/06/24/how-media-will-pick-next-democratic-presidential-candidate
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
DownriverDem
(6,231 posts)Biden/Harris can win.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
highplainsdem
(49,034 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)Putting aside the declaration of who would win, I think the OP article is correct in that the primary process is heavily front-loaded.
The media loves a one versus one final face off and will start declaring one very early.
Iowa and New Hampshire have outrageously disproportional influence on the outcome of the primaries for this reason. The media makes that happen.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
highplainsdem
(49,034 posts)and fundraising.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)Media attention greatly impacts political races, it's why candidates fund raise to purchase media.
I happen to believe that the media pitches narratives that they think will draw the most viewers.
And the narrative that they think sells best is a horserace. Shortly after Iowa and New Hampshire the pundit media will start declaring which 2 candidates will be in that race.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
TwilightZone
(25,479 posts)Some of the assertions are seriously misguided. Lots of wishful thinking and projection, too.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Indygram
(2,113 posts)and are seeking out alternative sources of information and candidates are using social media more to connect with voters.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
George II
(67,782 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Politicub
(12,165 posts)And treat it like a horserace or roller derby:
Biden is in front now, BUT CAN HE KEEP THE LEAD???
Here comes Warren.... will she overtake Biden? SHE DID!!
But Warren better keep an eye on her rear-view mirror, BECAUSE Beto's on the stump with his FOOT ON THE GAS!
Oh no! Beto has crashed into Harris, giving BIDEN an opening. Here he comes, folks!!
Whose that in the bushes? Could it be? It is! SANDERS and his HYPE CREW are on the track! It looks like one of those mobile tourist bars where everyone pedals while they DRINK!
We've never had a primary like this on, Folks! I don't know if I can stand it!
Hold on... this just in... a glider has been spotted in the sky. IT'S INSLEE. He's sailing to the FRONT but, wait a moment,
has hit a POCKET OF GREENHOUSE GAS!
We're almost to Iowa. We still have our eye on Buttigieg and the other nominees... We'll interrupt your broadcast if anything...
HOLY JOE! BIDEN IS BACK!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
SKKY
(11,821 posts)Unless you have to time to gather and process every important fact about the candidates, we all depend on media reporting to condense, package, and deploy the news. If you do have that kind of free time, congrats! Your best life is clearly better than mine. But, propagating suspicions about the media is never a good look.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
PDittie
(8,322 posts)"undecided" voters. (Nobody take this personally.)
Recent polling suggests -- and should we putting much faith in polls after Nate Silver's 2016 debacle, anyway? -- a shitload of Democrats don't know who these candidates are, much less what they stand for.
Only 22% of Democrats registered to vote say they know a lot about the candidates positions, while 62% say they know a little. And only 35% say theyre paying close attention to the campaign, with almost two-thirds saying theyre paying some or no attention.
Its kind of a blur, said Maggie Banks, 32, of suburban Denver, who has two young children and only has a chance to glean a few details about the race while listening to National Public Radio during her commute.
Banks said she has only a vague idea of whos running and didnt realize her states senior senator, Michael Bennet, or former governor, John Hickenlooper, were in the race.
Let's unpack this a bit more: we will get to late October, 2020, and the media will find a few 'muricans in a Walmart parking lot who scratch themselves and look confused and say, "I'm undecided" about whether to vote for Trump or whichever Democrat gets nominated, and the rest of us will scream, or roll our eyes, or grit our teeth, or react in some way that suggests our full disgust.
Ultra-low information voters might be the bane of democracy's existence.
Here in early primary season, the "changing room" part of the cycle, everyone should be at least open to trying on different candidates for a good fit.
-- Do policies matter or just "defeat Trump"?
-- Is so-and-so just too grouchy, or out of touch, or inexperienced, or old, or young, or too conservative or moderate or liberal or progressive for me? What's my "Goldilocks zone"?
Yes. the media talking heads inform but also distort with their own bias. That's why you might be better off with CSPAN whenever they are an option. Twitter is a cesspool, and also invaluable for the very latest and most insightful, as well as being wickedly sharp (brevity is the soul and all that).
CNN sucks, except when it doesn't. MSDNC is a bunch of cheerleaders except when they aren't. Fox is Fox unless you're watching Sheperd Smith.
Apply your personal, customized filters, know your own biases, and don't get stuck in your silos.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Tarheel_Dem
(31,240 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden