Serious ? -- Would Harris draw more/less independents and Repub never-Trumpers in General Election?

[Grasswire2]

Because Dem victory may require those votes in many states.

We must look toward the GE during the primary.

[bluewater]

1. She might put Georgia in play.

Georgia has been trending more red to purple every year.

Stacy Abrams, a Democrat, lost a very close gubernatorial election there in 2018.

[LonePirate]

4. GA is in play for most of our top tier candidates. It could be the closest state of them all in 2020

[Demsrule86]

79. I don't know when it will happen but it will someday.

[tulipsandroses]

17. I'm in GA and we still don't believe she lost. Voter Suppression by Kemp

So yeah. If we are following that Blue print. That grass roots campaign. Going where the votes are like Stacey did and telling folks what you have to offer.

I believe any Dem can win.

[democratisphere]

29. The Mayor of Atlanta, Keisha Lance Bottoms, just endorsed Biden AFTER the debates.

The rush to Harris is fabricated by the MSM and I don't believe it is real, imo.

[robbedvoter]

36. Abrams won for sure. So did Gillum and Beto. Nelson too

They couldn’t mess it at district level, but statewide, they did.

[Demsrule86]

51. Unlikely in my opinion.

[Blue_true]

56. I believe that either her, Biden and Warren would win Florida.

Warren would have to canvass the state, but I think she can beat Trump here.

A lot of people complain about the Governor's race. But we came VERY close to electing a Black Governor, even with potentially tens of thousands on mailin ballots in the largest and heavily democratic county invalidated because an idiot made a bomb scare which closed down several post offices in that county past the postmark date for the mailin ballots (a reason why healthy people should NEVER mail in ballots in a purple state that is still controlled by Republicans).

[Demsrule86]

80. I don't think she will win Florida..andt I think our only path this year is through the rustbelt.We

win MI, WI and PA...Trump loses. I don't think it wise to count on states that we have not won recently.

[Blue_true]

95. President Obama won Florida twice.

What do you mean count on states that we have not won recently? Rather strange claim. Hillary barely lost the state and she failed to have a campaign presence in a large part of it.

[rampartc]

84. reparations paints the south red.

from florida to michigan. Georgia included.

some kinds of reparations policy might make sense on many levels, but not to southern reptiles.

[watoos]

2. I'm looking to whoever is tough as nails to take on Trump,

that's what I'm looking for in my candidate.

[LonePirate]

3. We should not depend on the "Never" group. They will vote Republican in November 2020.

Their current protestations are merely for ego and attention.

[robbedvoter]

37. Indeed. Plus their take on electability sent them to

Jeb, Rubio last time. So, let’s decide the primary amongst Democrats.

[marylandblue]

5. A political realignment is coming, and I want whoever can engineer that.

[LuvNewcastle]

21. Yes, next year will be 40 years since 1980.

With the right candidate, it can be a landslide.

[Demsrule86]

52. Really? Moderates took the house in 18 and have you looked at the Senate...there was a political

realignment and it was not in our favor.

[marylandblue]

58. Any such political realignment does of course include moderates.

When major realignments occur at the Presidential level, moderates have to choose. There is no middle ground. The election of 1860 was a realignment. For decades, the moderate position was let the South be slave and the North be free. By 1860, this was no longer tenable. As Lincoln said, "The nation cannot exist half slave and half free." Which meant the moderates had to choose sides. There wasn't a middle ground anymore. Either we went all slave or all free. They chose all free.

Now we face another decision point. The moderates will have to choose again. Either we go full authoritarian or we go some version of progressive. There is no middle ground because there is no compromise position to take with authoritarianism. Either you are or you aren't.

The moderates will have to choose sides, even though they don't like to do that. I want the candidate who will make that choice as easy as possible so that the will vote for our side in overwhelming numbers.

It's okay if you don't see this coming. Most people don't. In 1860, most people didn't know a huge tragedy was coming their way. Not even Lincoln knew it.

[rufus dog]

59. Is Katie Porter a moderate?

Learned under Warren, worked with Harris, won a seat always held by Repukes, smack dab in the middle of Orange County.

[Demsrule86]

63. She has joined the progressive caucus and is considered to be endangered...this is orange country.

She did win in districts won by Hillary Clinton...but there is no dispute that moderates gave us the house...and I hope that Katie keeps her seat. It is considered endangered but with changing demographics, she should be OK. Do you really think there is a progressive wave in the 18 house races? And the senate is a horror. We have a moderate left country that is being dragged further right by Trump. We are in big trouble...and I pray we win this election. We need a moderate nominee or we lose the general presidential election and maybe the house.

[UniteFightBack]

72. Agree with every word! nt

[Demsrule86]

78. Nancy is trying to protect our newly one house majority...hope to God she succeeds.

[katmondoo]

76. Katie is one to watch, she will be President one day.

[Demsrule86]

77. No she won't unless we roll up our sleeves and change hearts and mindes in moderate

and even red districts. This talking down Democrats and primarying sitting Democrats accomplishes nothing...big waste of resources and time...we need to expand our numbers or no one on our side will win the presidency and we will not gain a Senate majority. Look at the Senate map and the electoral college map...we have no electoral college path to the presidency as it stands right now and this will not change in 2024 either. This is why rebuilding the blue wall is essential. We need a big tent approach and a 50 state stratagy...we also need to vote in midterms and pay more attention to taking back state governments.

[highplainsdem]

6. Less than Biden, you mean? Definitely less. She has much less chance of winning

the GE, IMO.

ALL the polling so far has shown that Biden has the best chance of beating Trump.

Trying to cripple Biden's campaign on the vain assumption that any Democrat can beat Trump is foolish.

[Mme. Defarge]

14. I also worry that running a divisive candidate

could negatively affect Democrats running for Senate and House seats.

[CentralMass]

16. Biden brought up the issue and stands by it. Is it any of the other candidates job to defend him on

it ? Is it suprising that the two black candidates in the race Booker and Harris might have differing opinions on the subject ? Characterizing their responses to an issue that probably would not have been on the table if Joe Biden hadn't brought it up as attacking him ? I would suggest that their opinions and comments are legitimate.

[marylandblue]

23. She's not assuming assuming ANY Democrat can beat Trump

She's assuming SHE can beat Trump and he can't and is trying prove it by beating Biden, the idea being she will be an attack dog against Trump. The ultimate success of this strategy for her is another matter. For him, he has to prove himself. He won't stay up in the polls if her attacks do damage him.

[hedda_foil]

24. I completely disagree. I believe he's among the weakest potential nominees.

He worked well with Obama, though it was always the Obama administration not Obama -Biden. But he is a creature of the credit card companies, very mixed in implementing equal rights, abysmally wrong on busing (It worked in innoculating the next generation against racism) horribly wrong on Anita Hill and the other women Clarence Thomas harassed in his previous job, horribly wrong on the bankruptcy bill, horrendously wrong on his crime bill and more. And then there's his proneness to gaffes.

He's an old time good old boy, a hail fellow well met, a man who doesn't even recognize is own past mistakes in judgement. He's running on inevitability and stength, but comes across as weak and slow. (Not "sleepy" but slowed down.). He'd be 80 by the time he could be inaugurated, which is too damn old for me, no matter how good his facelift is. Same goes for Bernie.

If he should wind up the nominee, I'll vote for him because he's certainly better than Trump, but imho, too many will stay home and new voters won't vote in the numbers we need because he's not at all inspiring. And don't forget the Russian and Saudi psychological warfare. I'm convinced he'd lose and that Trump will move from kiddie concentration camps to full blown extermination of his perceived enemies.

[highplainsdem]

25. The polling definitely doesn't support your assertion that he's among the weakest possible nominees.

[ucrdem]

27. Warren hopped on board the Medicare for All-eliminate private insurance train

and then defended it in the Wednesday debate, and Harris raised her hand when asked the same question on Thursday. I said at the time it was bad news, and she's walked it back, but they both support Bernie's wretched plan and they would both get hammered into dust on that and probably now busing in the GE.

[Thekaspervote]

64. +1000

We can all wish upon that bright shiny star... yours right it isn’t a winning strategy.

[UniteFightBack]

73. Out of anything ...that right there ended Warren in a general election. nt

[hedda_foil]

32. Your faith in early polling is touching but wrong.

Remember Hillary in '07?

[AlexSFCA]

38. the most dangerous thing for us it to rely on early polling

we just saw the first debates and what it showed us is that we all must be keep our options open. Just imagine if you are going with Biden and he does appear to be the best chance on paper and then months before GE he is developing a serious health issue and withdrawing from the race?
I agree with Maher’s panel last night that dems should collectively focus on what’s at stake and coalesce around saving the democracy for us and the rest of the world. We made it look like it’s about healthcare or even immigrants but it is not even close. This race is much bigger, those issues are peanuts. But race is number 1 issue because it is tied directly to the demise of liberal democracy across the globe and particularly in the US. Why? White nationalism is a DT’s chosen vehicle to transition the US to authoritarian oligarchy. And it is dangerous because it is extraordinarily effective.

[Turin_C3PO]

45. That's why I'm supporting him.

Because I believe he has the best chance to win. But, I do fear self-inflicted wounds that might drive down his poll numbers. Biden must get tighter messaging, IMO, or he could lose.

[gldstwmn]

69. +1000

[CentralMass]

7. The electorate will chose a nominee and hopefully we all get behind that nominee.

[TreasonousBastard]

8. Look, Hillary got 3 million more votes than the asshole, and that's before the nation knew...

what an asshole he is. Problem was, those votes were in the wrong places. But she still got them.

I still believe that roadkill could defeat Trump... IF we can get the vote out.

That bottom third is completely lost to us no matter what we do, so get our third out and work on that third in the middle who might be the bulk of nonvoters.

[Demsrule86]

53. And the same thing could happen this year...we have to win in the electoral college. Has anyone

looked at it and tried to see where we need to win? Maybe we might take Georgia or Texas or perhaps Arizona..only we haven't in years if at all..we do have a chance in blue wall states where Hillary lost by only a little but it will take a moderate candidate to win there. Biden could win...but who else?

[madville]

9. No

She'll turn many swing state and independent voters off with just her pledge to institute strict gun control measures via executive order (if Congress doesn't take action in the first 100 days and we know what the Senate will do).

[empedocles]

15. Or some other left issue like reparations, Medicare for all, etc. that the 80% ers don't like.

On the other side, I suggest 80%, because there are some very conservative voters, who don't like trump's: lying, or immorality, individual foreign affairs differences, war belligerence, disregard for children, the less well off, etc., etc.

[Turin_C3PO]

46. Something like 90% of people are for universal background checks.

I don’t think that position would hurt her in the GE.

[Demsrule86]

54. It would hurt her in the rustbelt must win states.

[madville]

94. The actual intent of the executive orders doesn't really matter

Most people don't know what the current gun laws are, including many politicians. It's the perception of her "banning" something or instituting gun control via executive order that will turn many off.

[empedocles]

10. My suspicion on significant crossover votes is vote for the less problematic/unlikeable alternative.

Seems that, contrary to the opinion of some blue wavers here, 2018 was in the marginal states that we need to win, more an anti-trump and anti-trumper type, . . . to vote against.

[Mme. Defarge]

11. If the Dems select a candidate who is perceived as

divisive, they/we will lose. Period. Some voters, like moi, will dutifully hold their noses and vote for that candidate, but many voters will pass on voting in the general election. Donald Trump might actually be elected this time.

[dawg day]

18. Every Democratic candidate will be seen as "divisive"

... including Biden, who has taken "divisive" stands like "being Obama's vice president" and "standing very strong for the ACA."

I'm not sure we're going to get a candidate (or would want one) who would be regarded as congenial and able to get along with everyone.


No matter what, Trump will be MORE divisive, exponentially so. People who want order and peace and compromise aren't going to vote for him if they are rational.

And if "non-divisive" means "doing or saying nothing that will upset people who might vote for Trump," well, the mere existence of Democratic candidates upsets them. No way to win them over.

I do think that Democrats ought to be united as soon as there's a candidate to unite around, but that's not going to happen for months. By the time there's The Democrat vs. The Donald, all these flareups will be forgotten by most people.
Obama chose Biden, after all, to be his running mate though they'd had some run-ins in the past. That's when unity matters most.

[Turin_C3PO]

48. Can't get more divisive than Trump.

[ucrdem]

12. Warren has also come out in favor of federal support for busing.

If the primaries became a battle over busing and Medicare for All we're going to get slaughtered in the swing states and maybe some blue states. Add inmate voting rights and reparations and we might be looking at McGovern vs Nixon. Trump is a snake and will slither whichever way he has to and issues like these are too all easily demagogued.

[highplainsdem]

13. Her current poll numbers don't in any way suggest she could win any swing voters.

[highplainsdem]

19. And btw, if you wonder how NeverTrumpers view her, I suggest you check out Tom Nichols'

Twitter account:

https://twitter.com/RadioFreeTom
"
He said, among other things, that "smearing Joe Biden as a crypto-racist and then making a t-shirt out of it" is low -- he even called what she did "Trumpian" -- and this particular tweet was his first reaction to hearing about the t-shirt:

Link to tweet

Well, Kamala Harris just went from one of my top choices to somewhere just above Williamson. If she's the nominee, I'll vote for her because I have no choice against Trump, but this is just bullshit.

[Fiendish Thingy]

20. She would energize the youth vote, POC

If we focus on winning never trumpers and independents and ignore the youth and POC voters, we will lose.

[ucrdem]

22. Possibly but would that outweigh the swing voters hammered by targeted GOP ads?

If she wins the nom, I guess we'll see, but I don't think either she or Warren or both together stand a chance. Of course, if it comes to pass, I hope I'm wrong.

[hedda_foil]

28. It always has.

[ucrdem]

35. Like in 1968?

How about in 1980? Other than JFK in 1960 I can't think of any national elections we actually won by pitching to young voters. And I'll let the late great Sen. Lloyd Bentsen finish that thought.

[hedda_foil]

39. I'm referring to your never Trumpers and swing voters. Put your faith in them and ...

Lose a chunk of the base and the election. But never mind. After all, 1968! Of course the war, and assassinations and nobody particularly wanted Humphrey, because he was Johnson's VP, and the convention riots and police violence and cities burning riled up the right. But never mind that stuff.


And '80? Well, Carter stayed out of public view too long after the failed hostage rescue. Bush and friends traded arms for hostages to derail Carter's negotiations and there was a third party candidate who drained off votes from Carter because people had no idea that he was a spoiler. And Carter was no liberal. But other than that...

Read some history about something deeper than polling please.

[Thekaspervote]

65. I would love to see a woman prez! even Hillary has said America will not elect a fe prez

Sad... very sad and disgusting, but this is how it is. Hopefully it will happen in the next gen when more of the baby boomers are gone

[highplainsdem]

26. Nothing in the polling suggests Harris would be particularly good at energizing the youth vote or

POC.

Biden's had a commanding lead with POC in the polling.

And as for the youth vote, Harris has been lagging behind Sanders, Warren, and, if I recall all the polls I read at all correctly, Buttigieg.

[hedda_foil]

30. It's too early. These thing change and build during the actual campaign, which has just begun.

[Claritie Pixie]

31. No, but Elizabeth Warren can.

[Politicub]

33. Yes. She would. Now is the time to forcefully embrace a feminist platform.

It was a winning formula in my district -- Georgia 6 -- Gingrich's old district and one that Lucy McBath flipped by running as an unabashed liberal.

[Celerity]

34. all this 'only Biden can win' posturing by some ignores one huge fact

Joe has never been able to run a successful POTUS primary campaign before. He has imploded 2 times, for a multitude of different reasons, and those where when he was a more vigorous force personally than a circa 2019-20 Biden is. He may well win our primaries this time, but it might well be at a real cost to his GE-chances, due to his apparently inevitable self-inflicted wounds all along the way, and narrowing of his targeting in order to win.

I think it is a very high-risk strategy to simply try and narrow it all down to drawing back some voters (a high percentage of them older and white) in a few Midwest states, when getting there may come at the expense of expanding the voting pool (ie non voters) and ensuring an explosion in turnout of the biggest (numerically in terms of potential voters) bloc of voters now (Gen-Z and Millennials).

Clinton won almost 76% of black 2016 Primary voters.




But, in the GE, she sagged badly in terms of overall A-A turnout. If she had just maintained the averages of the last 4 lections, she would have won the Electoral College.

massive post here showing all that here >>> https://www.democraticunderground.com/128736610#post18

If Biden continues to have self-inflicted racially related gaffes and also runs a massively 'older, very moderate voter focused' type primary campaign, he may well win the Democratic primary, but at what cost with the PoC and the sub 40yo demographics in the general election? A lot of systemic weaknesses can quite possibly exposed between now and the convention. They already are.


In terms of the under 40yo demographic, he surely cannot do something like this (from 2018) again:

Biden Trashes Millennials in His Quest to Become Even Less Likable
"Give me a break," he said of young people who "think they have it tough."

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/mbpxx8/biden-trashes-millennials-in-his-quest-to-become-even-less-likable

same thing (so I am not accused of cherry-picking an obscure article)

Joe Biden trashes Millennials: 'Give me a break'

https://www.sfgate.com/politics/article/Joe-Biden-Millennials-2020-interview-book-tour-12494099.php

https://www.indy100.com/article/joe-biden-millennials-2020-us-election-democrat-reaction-8900286

https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/368849-biden-on-young-people-complaining-they-have-it-tough-give-me-a

https://www.chicagotribune.com/95641832-132.html

https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-says-millennials-dont-have-it-tough-780348



I am absolutely not sold on the positing that he is (this far out especially) the 'safe play', let alone the the attempts to ramrod him down our throats as literally the ONLY one who can win versus the monstrous Rump. FAR too early for these types of pronouncements.

[Demsrule86]

41. One thing that has emerged is that Biden's 'gaffes' have not hurt him with POC...which means he

will likely be the nominee and we have a chance to win the general.

[Celerity]

44. that really remains to be seen, as the first post-debate poll just came out and shows him

with a very large large 10% drop in just his number. Harris gained over 10 points from after the 1st debate to after the 2nd one.

It is only one poll (although it has been a favourite one of Biden supporters) so we will not have a full picture on the effects of the debates for a week or so.

Biden is absolutely not a sure thing, and is not the only one who can beat Trump.

[Demsrule86]

55. Very early and with the contrived nature of the attack complete with t-shirts...we shall se when

all the facts emerge where the chips fall...

[Celerity]

57. keep rolling with that 'contrived attack' line, EVERYTHING is contrived, it is called debate prep

Biden needs to up his game in that and a lot of other areas.

I will certainly not be upset if he arises from this and actually does turn into the all-conquering Rump-crusher that so many assume him to be. The minute the primaries/nomination is wrapped up I am all on board the Biden train, IF he is the winner.

That said, his history says it may not work out so well for him. Time will tell, and if he does rise above, then he certainly will be more battle tested to finish off the monster Rump.


Don't hate the playa, hate the game.

[Thekaspervote]

66. Biden's gaffs with the AA voters increased by polling with AA voters by 18% following the debate

[Celerity]

68. keep on believing that

Morning Consult (Biden supporters favourite poll or so it seemed):

Biden's Support Slipped 10 Points After Debates, Poll Shows

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287179900



where is your link anyway?

big claims need a link


or are you using that Stan Greenberg test group 'live-polling' tosh?

The one that had Buttigieg dropping 10 points amongst Africans Americans post debate

when no real polls even ever had him above 5, 6% in his best states and in SC all have him at zero or 1% with A-A's (those unfortunately are true for Pete)

pro-tip: there is no such thing as a negative 4%, negative 6%, negative 9% poll number, roflmaoo



also there is this

crazy crash on the markets

Biden had been over 30% or so for 5 weeks

before the debates Harris around 10%

debate hits and BOOM

http://markets.predictwise.com/markets/

PredictWise Markets: June 29 - 19

Kamala Harris 24 %
Elizabeth Warren 18 %
Joe Biden 13 %
Pete Buttigieg 11 %
Bernie Sanders 5 %
Tulsi Gabbard 4 %
Andrew Yang 3 %
Cory Booker 2 %
Julian Castro 1 %
Beto O'Rourke 1 %

[58Sunliner]

86. Not so sure about the methodology, seems like relying on social media is open to manipulation.

PredictWise provides rapid, comprehensive insights into public opinion to help progressive change-makers better understand, activate and grow their audience.

PredictWise is built on bleeding-edge research into market design, survey design, online and social media, administrative data, and other fundamental or behavioral data-sets related to measuring public opinion and political outcomes.

PredictWise dashboard – the Insights Engine – integrates the results of a continuous nationwide survey (20,000 responses per month) with custom analytics,

[Celerity]

91. the main news was the very large drop in the Morning Consult poll.

In the first link. The Morning Consult has been a favourite poll of the Biden supporters, with them posting it dozens of times in this current cycle, so they can hardly how claim it dodgy.

Harris made up approximately a net 21 points on Biden. He lost around 25% of his total vote share (in that poll) since the debate.

Obviously still remains to be seen how it all shakes out.

[Demsrule86]

40. She won't win in rustbelt states and neither will Warren...they just won't...we will lose the

general if we are not careful

[Celerity]

47. oh, scare tactics now, woot woot

we will lose the general if we are not careful

Glad to see you adding some new riffs to the repertoire

[Demsrule86]

49. Seriously, I have said this for months...and I notice no one ever says ...how we win without the

blue wall...Trump is going for an electoral college win...oh any candidate might win the popular vote as Hillary did...but we don't elect presidents that way-we have an electoral college and if he wins PA, WI and MI, we lose...and I am fucking terrified that Trump will win myself.

[Celerity]

87. I just do not see circa 2019-20 Biden as up to the task atm, based off multiple months of watching

him. He really needs to up his all round game if he is even going to win the nomination, let alone the general. His campaign has been keeping him away from the press and more events as a strategy, and it appears for good reason, IMHO. Obviously this is all subject to change (in either direction) which is why I simply will not accept a pre-ordained outcome (being that we have only one path to ousting Rump, basically Biden or bust) to any of this at this early, early point in the primaries.

Biden’s Bad Night Exposed Some Dangerous Weaknesses

http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/06/bidens-bad-night-exposed-some-dangerous-weaknesses.html

snip

But it’s not so much how poorly he did in the first round of debates as how he did poorly that should alarm his camp. He brought three basic vulnerabilities into this phase of the 2020 campaign: (1) his age (which most of his supporters may not really comprehend) and the associated impression that he’s not up to job and perhaps is just living in the past; (2) his possible complacency as the early front-runner; and (3) his heavy dependence on African-American voters for his current lead, and his clear vulnerability on his record on racially sensitive issues. All of these vulnerabilities were exposed in the Miami debate, and his rivals along with Biden critics in the activist community and the news media may now smell blood in the water in ways that could compound the damage.

The man on the stage tonight barely resembled the confident and dextrous debater who handled Sarah Palin in 2008 or Paul Ryan in 2012. In nearly every answer, he fumbled one or more words. At one point, he cut himself off in mid-sentence without being prompted by the moderators. Even his closing statement was awkward. He seemed to have to remind himself more than halfway through the debate to mention Barack Obama, his chief political asset, by name.

snip

Biden did not just seem old and off-balance but also ill-prepared, which is a classic sign of complacency. Challenged on his support for the Iraq War by Bernie Sanders — a criticism he must have dealt with a thousand times over the years — he initially fell into a word salad. Why wasn’t he prepared? And while the direct and personal nature of Kamala Harris’s challenge to his anti-busing history may have surprised him, the general line of attack on him for his past record on busing — and his more recent habit of nostalgically remembering his friendships with racists — was totally predictable. But as my colleague Olivia Nuzzi reported during the debate, Biden’s people may have been more shocked than anyone else.

Link to tweet

Then there’s the impact this debate might have on Biden’s potential Achilles’ heel in the primaries: African-American voters. Like Hillary Clinton in the early stages of the 2008 nominating contest, he’s riding high in that demographic right now. And like her, Biden is vulnerable to a viable young African-American challenger in the early state of South Carolina and in subsequent southern and urban states in which black voters are a large (and in some states a majority) portion of the primary electorate. Totally aside from the substantive impact of Harris’s challenge to Biden’s record on school busing and racial justice generally, it’s not good for the former veep that two of the strongest performers in the first round of debates have been Harris and Cory Booker, who represent a generational and a racial contrast to him. They are both gunning for Biden in South Carolina, and if one or both begins to carve into his African-American support, he’s in serious trouble.

Yes, of course, I could again be underestimating Biden’s strength, and of course he can recover. But these perceptions were broadly shared not only among dispassionate political observers but among those watching Biden with bad intent. In the weeks and months just ahead, he will be challenged at all his vulnerable points again and again. And to stanch the bleeding and repel the sharks it will attract, he will need to display more skill and sheer with-it-ness than he did in Miami.

snip


Another example of why I have the mindset I currently do (and this was a perfect foretelling of what happened overall in the debate, and no, not just the colloquy with Harris):

IMHO is is the antithesis of a 'safe play' to place all our eggs into the Biden basket at this point, as it is far, far too early to make broad, systemic assumptions of the type (ie. Biden and Biden alone is the only hope we all have) you are so fond off. That day may indeed come, but it surely has not remotely arrived yet.

[Demsrule86]

89. I find debates meaningless..and the attacks on Biden were unfair ...well she opened the door and

may be sorry...however,your post lacks a means of winning. Biden will take rust belt states no other candidate will IMHO . you use right wing talking points too...which is sad.

[Celerity]

90. I did not use RW talking points at all, that is simply false

done here

we are never going to agree

[UniteFightBack]

74. How about it's a dose of REALITY. nt

[Celerity]

88. you do not define my reality, sorry

[UniteFightBack]

92. Just be careful to not prick that bubble your 'reality' resides in. nt

[Eyeball_Kid]

62. Harris might pull in the Obama coalition.

I wouldn’t be so dismissive. Many things can change with the wink of an eye.

[treestar]

93. In a way we are just amusing ourselves right now

things can change in October 2020 as we have seen.

[Recursion]

71. And if she carries Florida the Rust Belt doesn't mean a damned thing (nt)

[Demsrule86]

81. Pretty big risk that...Florida is trending red. And we lost a sitting Senator in Florida in 18.

Trump won in the electoral college through the rust belt...and won't win without it...consider Trump could win Florida and still win if he takes MI, WI and PA...but Florida won't help him if he loses those three states.

[Turin_C3PO]

42. It's hard to know.

My feeling is that Joe Biden has the best shot at winning those types. But Warren and Harris may very well have the ability to attract them also.

[Demsrule86]

50. No, Warren is from the East Coast and Harris from the West Coast...they won't win.

I live in Ohio...Biden even has a chance here...none of the other candidates do.

[tishaLA]

43. IMO this election will be about exciting voters

and getting them out rather than trying to attract the squishes, although the squishes went with Democrats pretty much across the board in 18, so there's no reason to think they'd suddenly be OK with tRump.

We'd be better working to keep younger, more diverse voters engaged with politics, registered, and to the polls

[Eyeball_Kid]

60. IMO, Harris is capable of becoming wildly popular.

She has a voice. She projects herself with just the right mix of intelligence, moral outrage, and yes, vulnerability. She can touch millions like no one else can. And Buttegieg did himself and all Dems a favor with his outspoken support of Harris.

[Thekaspervote]

67. Californians aren't sold

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/17/opinion/kamala-harris-criminal-justice.html

[Demsrule86]

85. This is not a new article but given the recent stories in Wapo, Intercept and the AP ths needs to be

posted. This is very disturbing. I suggest you make this an OP...I will be your first 'rec'. I would do it but you found this very important article.

[Demsrule86]

82. Funny how things can change in 24 hours...

[IluvPitties]

61. I trust she will be able to if she is our nominee.

[Recursion]

70. If she brings AA voting back to 2008 or even just 2012 levels, we win (nt)

[Curky]

75. Obama showed that African Americans can attract Independents

And win the Presidency twice.

[Demsrule86]

83. Obama was a rock star....very gifted.