Morning Consult has some explaining to do

[Curky]

While the media reporting that Joe Biden lost 10% after the debate, Nate Silver quietly released two different Morning Consult polls conducted the exact same days (June 27-28), with the exact same methodology (LV) showing Joe Biden with 33% in one poll and 32% in the other.
Could it be that the debate cost Joe Biden 1%% and not 10%?

Morning Consult and Nate Silver (who are partnering together) are decent and very professional people, but they need to explain what the hell is going on a especially since the whole country is relying on just this one pollster at this point.






https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

[IluvPitties]

1. Biden did not lose any fans last Thursday.

The Media creates horse race narratives to get ratings.

[ucrdem]

2. Exactly.

All hail the latest Dem-defeater du jour! Oops we accidentally fibbed, sorry. The meme is out there and that's all that matters.

[onetexan]

12. yup, rather it only strengthened my resolve that he is without a doubt the best candidate

everyone else is VP material, except Bernie. He's history.
Sorry younguns, you'll have to put in your time and earn the torch. It's Biden's to carry at this do-or-die moment in history. There is just too much at stake to be trusting anyone else.

[Demsrule86]

3. As I expected. I wonder if Harris's bump will survive the story about how she refused to release

information that previous DA's had released in the case of victims of pedophile priests...when civil courts were the only avenue for such victims. There is much info out today on the internet about her time as DA and AG ...

[hlthe2b]

4. I reviewed some of MC's methodology immediately after the polls

On favorability:
Biden Pre- Favorability 76.5% Post Favorability 75.6%

Net favorable PRE Debate = 60.4% Net Favorable Post Debate = 56.5%

So, none to negligable change in favorability on the same date that they supposedly showed a 10% drop in SUPPORT


In terms of "support" rather than favorability:
Biden went from 41.5% pre-debates to 31.5% post- SECOND debate.
HOWEVER,
when you look at those polled and whether or not they actually WATCHED the debates:

The second wave of the poll was conducted from June 26 to June 27 among 2,041 respondents who previously responded to the first wave; it has a margin of error of +/- 2 percentage points. Of those respondents, 1,134 watched the first debate.
---> Just over half watched the first debate


The third wave of the poll was conducted from June 27 to June 28 among 1,399 respondents who previously responded to the first wave, including 428 who responded to both the first and second waves; it has a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. Of those respondents, 97 watched the first debate, 89 watched the second debate and 757 watched both debates.
--> 97/1399 watched first debate (0.69%); 89/1399 watched the second (0.6.3%); 757/1399 watched both debates (54%)


That is a problem and as Nate shows they had conflicting polls taken around the same time.

[Demsrule86]

7. No matter Biden did fine despite the hit jobs...now lets see how she handles the new story du jour..

about Pedophile priests and the the Catholic church ...and there are other stories of her time as DA and AG in the works...she made a mistake attacking Biden.

[hlthe2b]

9. She was effective and I'll not deride her, but if she does so again I don't think the response will

be so welcoming.

[Demsrule86]

10. I won't either but I was unaware until a post last night of her history as a DA/AG...I find it

disturbing and after her attacks on Biden, my guess in the next debates, it will be brought up. Some of it is well troubling ...I had no idea.

[Blue_Adept]

5. I love double-digit posters that know more about polling than pollsters.

Gets me fired up!

[Curky]

8. Okay. Do you admit that the debate took only 1% off of Biden support?

Or do you dispute that?

[Demsrule86]

6. Harris gets different 'bumps'?

[brush]

11. Isn't it too early to gauge results from the debates?

Usually we get fall out about a week later. I'll wait.

[Celerity]

13. he did lose 10 points in the Morning Consult poll from pre-debates to post debates

https://time.com/5617826/primary-debate-biden-harris-poll-slips-10/

The first Democratic primary debates appear to have cost Vice President Joe Biden some of his supporters – at least for now, one poll suggests.

Polling by Morning Consult and FiveThirtyEight before and after the two debates on Wednesday and Thursday suggests that support for Biden dropped by about 10 points among likely Democratic voters, when asked who they would choose if the election were held tomorrow.

Biden had previously enjoyed a healthy lead over the other Democrats. The polling prior to debates, which was conducted between June 19 and 26, suggested that Biden was supported by about 41.5% of voters. At that point, the polling showed Sen. Elizabeth Warren had the support of 12.6% of voters and Bernie Sanders had 14.4% of support. Biden appears to have slipped in the polls after each debate, his support falling to 35.4% after the first debate and to 31.5% after the second round.

Post-debate analyses suggest that Sen. Kamala Harris’ strong debate performance – coupled with her willingness directly attack Biden, including his civil rights record – posed a challenge for the former Vice President. In one of the most heated moments of the debate, Harris drew attention to Biden’s previous opposition to busing as a tool to promote school integration.

The poll also showed Harris gaining a significant number of supporters. While she had the support of just 7.9% of likely voters before the debate, (my add, she had 6.3% after the first debate) she had 16.6% of the the support afterwards. Other candidates appeared to experience smaller gains and losses, according to the poll. Sen. Bernie Sanders’ support rose from 14.4% to 17.3% after the second debate; Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s support grew from 12.6% to 14.4%.

snip


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/democratic-debate-poll/

[Curky]

16. You used the plural, "debates"

This thread is about articles such as this one, lying about the debate Biden participated in bringing him down 10%.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/450958-10-percent-fewer-democrats-say-theyd-vote-for-biden-after-first-debate-poll

I want to know how devastating Kamala's comment really was.

[Celerity]

18. I just used the verbiage of the first article on it I found yesterday (I posted it as an OP then)

Biden's Support Slipped 10 Points After Debates, Poll Shows

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287179900

Obviously we will see if the haemorrhaging of Biden's support is backed up by other polls as they start to roll in over the coming days Also we shall see if that over 10 point boost for Harris from post 1st debate to post 2nd debate is sustained.

[Curky]

19. And I used the article that lied

In The Hill.

[Celerity]

20. The Hills was very sloppy with its writing, but, at the end of the day, in that particle poll's data

set, Biden, as I said (not talking about the Hill postulations) did drop 10 points from pre first debate to post second. Harris had a huge gain (as she had actually lost support from pre all debates to post FIRST debate) from ust the sencond debate. Her move up of over 10 points came partially (it appears, as he did drop some) from Biden, and also partially from her simply being seen as the clear winner and a real player now.

I never set out to defend the Hill, btw, and I was always a straight-shooter in my links,and my wording.

You should contact Tal Axelrod (the author) at The Hill and have him clean up that article, it is a mess.

https://twitter.com/talstales

Send an email to the Editorial department: [e-mail]

cheers

[thesquanderer]

21. It was a different kind of poll, polling the same people at two points in time...

...intended to measure the impact of the debates, and is not necessarily equivalent in methodology to the standard weekly Morning Consult polls, so I think you can't draw a straight line between the numbers of one type of poll and the other.

Please also see my post at

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287181483#post23

[Celerity]

22. yes, and see my reply I literally just did to you there, lol (with the methodology)

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287181483#post72

[Dickbaker]

14. Polls tell us Biden attracts American voters

It was once my expertise? Let me tell you that both polls are reasonable if you look at the poll input. Important fact is that Biden is continuing to lead and all democrats should be optimistic that he and the appropriate partner will give us a new president in 2020.
Dick

[gldstwmn]

15. I'm not relying on Morning Consult.

[thesquanderer]

17. Figures may not be directly comparable. Please see my post in another thread linked here...

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287181483#post23