Harris surges to third place in national poll after debate

[DonViejo]

By CHRISTOPHER CADELAGO 06/30/2019 08:39 AM EDT

The number of Democratic primary voters who pick Kamala Harris as their first choice for president doubled after the first Democratic debates, vaulting the California senator into a third-place tie in a new poll.

The latest Morning Consult survey found Harris increased her standing to 12% in the poll, which was taken after the debate ended through Friday, up 6 points over the last week. Harris’ upswing came after she confronted Joe Biden over his history opposing school busing for desegregation, a dramatic moment that dominated news coverage afterward.

Harris hadn’t moved much since entering the race on Martin Luther King Jr. Day — while two rival Democrats, South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Elizabeth Warren passed Harris. After the debate, Harris pulled ahead of Buttigieg and into a tie with Warren.

Harris’ surge, which also netted her more than $2.5 million in donations as the second-quarter deadline approaches, came largely at Biden’s expense, the poll found. The former vice president, who maintains a large lead over the field at 33%, took the biggest post-debate hit, dropping 5 points after the Miami exchange over race and busing to end desegregation.

Sen. Bernie Sanders held steady in second at 19%, but the poll found he was the only major candidate to see a measurable drop in his favorability, which fell 7 points, to 67%, since the last Morning Consult survey.

###

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/30/kamala-harris-democratic-debates-1390740

[ucrdem]

1. Now it's -5 points.

When all is said and done I suspect Biden's net loss will be even smaller.

[UncleTomsEvilBrother]

2. I think you're right.

At the risk of making a few people mad, Biden's record on Civil Rights is better than any other candidate's in the field. That includes Harris; however, his decision to vote against the federal law is something he is going to have to handle with a nuanced approach.

[Kahuna7]

6. Definately. nt

[Demsrule86]

3. He didnt lose anything...and the bump will be short lived IMHO.

[ucrdem]

4. Harris made a big splash, I'll give her that.

But I think it was a long-term miscalculation. The press corps is loving it of course.

[Demsrule86]

5. We can't forget they helped elect Trump and can't be trusted in these matters.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

9. THIS!!

Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[Demsrule86]

7. She did and I think it was a mistake also.

[coeur_de_lion]

8. too bad she had to step on Biden in order to get there

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

10. Biden opened the door for Kamala to walk thru w/ his comment about workin w/ segregationists.

Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[ucrdem]

12. And she handed him his ticket to Pennsylvania Ave.

Busing. Like it or not he's on the side of the people on that one.

[chimpymustgo]

16. On the side of WHICH people? As a young black girl in NC who was BUSSED, I have

some bad memories of racist shit - but also some good ones of people I got to know. Kamala came out strong, as did i.

[ucrdem]

18. Thanks for that!

I'm glad you came out strong. Kamala seems to have had a positive experience too. Her program has since been scrapped as have most others but it's still opposed by most voters and if Biden makes it the general and gets painted as the guy who pulled the plug on forced busing, he won't have any trouble winning swing states.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

24. You might be right, but that's what debates are for... will listen to Kamala's argument for busing

first and then decide. So far, I haven't heard any details of her busing plan.


Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[Demsrule86]

13. She took it out of context...OP out about her time as DA and AG...I know you saw it...

It got me curious...so I look at various sites...both recent and older...there is trouble there.

[coeur_de_lion]

15. So sorry but that is bullshit

No one opened a door. I am not even sure how I feel about Biden's remarks but they were not an invitation for her to bash him.

You don't see him bashing her do you?

This is not the way for her to win. If it is she won't get my vote.

[Blue_true]

22. Agree. He also mentioned what he referred to as "forced busing"

that same night of the next day. He opened the door. My belief is the "forced busing" comment is going to ultimately erode his African American support unless he comes out with a forceful statement about how he was wrong then. Without AA, it becomes a street fight between him, Warren and Harris, a fight that I think the Senators are better equipped to win.

[EffieBlack]

23. "Forced busing" is code language pushed by Lee Atwater

Forced busing is actually “forced desegregation” - when local governments refused to desegregate their schools and the federal courts had to order them to obey the law.

Opposition to “forced busing” was really just the northern version of southern massive resistance by segregationists who insisted the federal government had no right to come into their communities and tell them how to handle their “negro problem.”

Biden arguing that he was opposed to “forced busing” because desegregation should have been left up to local communities is a non-starter. He needs to back off that argument but quick.

[Blue_true]

25. I agree with every word you wrote.

I am a southerner and got to see, for a brief time, segregation up close. I would play with kids during the summer and we would become strangers once school started, even as we were neighbors. A lot of effort was put into maintaining segregated schools and forced busing of both Blacks and Whites was part of that effort, but when it finally came time to integrate schools, racists like Atwater turned busing into something that had never happened, that was a lie, there was more busing to keep schools segregated.

[Hoyt]

26. Perfect.

[emmaverybo]

27. Exactly what prosecutors do--wait and jump in with the full plan. NT

[Cha]

20. Biden can handle.. he has

broad shoulders.

[coeur_de_lion]

21. Still doesn't excuse her

but you’re right.

[emmaverybo]

28. I can't excuse her because her surge is not earned. Biden has spent a life-time supporting

civil rights. But now Harris will have to bear more scrutiny of her own record. Let her speak to her own accomplishments and mistakes.

[highplainsdem]

11. Compared to the MC poll right after the debate, Harris lost 5 points and Biden gained 1.

Biden was at 32% in the Morning Consult Poll immediately after the debate, while Harris was at 17%.

A couple of days later, Harris lost much of the bump she got from the debate (she lost 5 of the 8 points she'd momentarily gained), and Biden is starting to recover in that poll.


Nate Silver tweet on the earlier poll:

Link to tweet

[Demsrule86]

14. Thanks for this...I was confused with the dueling MC polls one of which seems to have just

disappeared. It showed her five points higher...did't want to show the decline between the first polls and the one above maybe...she is losing her bounce...planned attack turned some off and new (to me and I bet others) oppo on her time as a DA and AG.She opened the door...

[Celerity]

19. apples and oranges, 2 different polls, the 538/MC collab was completely seperate from the MC normal

daily poll.

The collab 538/MC poll in your link is the one Biden dropped by 10 points from the pre debates snapshot to post both debates snapshot.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1287&pid=182062


If you doubt me, feel free to contact the 2 people involved at 538



Aaron Bycoffe

https://twitter.com/bycoffe

email [e-mail]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/contributors/aaron-bycoffe/

Aaron Bycoffe is a computational journalist for FiveThirtyEight. He previously worked at The Huffington Post and the Sunlight Foundation.


Julia Wolfe

https://twitter.com/juruwolfe

email [e-mail]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/contributors/julia-wolfe/

Julia Wolfe is a visual journalist for FiveThirtyEight.


cheers

[Thekaspervote]

30. Thx for posting! I have seen similar numbers as well

[Demsrule86]

17. For now...

[Cha]

29. She must be so proud!