New narrative-busting HarrisX poll: Joe Biden's lead goes from 12% to 14% after debates

[Curky]

If you go to the 538 website, you will find the latest HarrisX poll in which Kamala Harris support increased significantly, but Joe Biden's lead over Bernie Sanders actually went up a bit after the debate.
if the narrative that Biden was horrible and Bernie Sanders did okay we're true, then the gap between Biden and Sanders would have narrowed. It didn't.
Importantly, Biden now has 28% total first-choice of voters compared to 27% before the debates.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

[WheelWalker]

1. Resistance is futile.

[marylandblue]

4. Yeah, that makes me feel better about Biden.

[Uncle Joe]

22. ...

[marylandblue]

2. I'm not sure how this busts any narrative.

Biden supporters said the debate would help Biden and hurt Harris. Well it helped Harris and +1 for Biden is not statistically significant, so they were only half right.

The story around Sanders seems to be that his loyal supporters will be forever loyal and he'll get nobody else. It still looks like that

[RandySF]

3. 2% is statistical noise.

[Thekaspervote]

5. Thx!! His support among AA voters went up 18% after the debates

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287177473 You can find it in comment number 42. Or see Sam stein Twitter feed

[highplainsdem]

6. Great news! And I see Cory Booker, despite his attacks on Biden, is at 2%.

Though maybe I should say that's because of his attacks on Biden, because they seem to be backfiring...

[Celerity]

7. HarrisX is a C+ rated poll by Rasmussen, they are ones that Rump quotes as they show him over 50%

It is skewed with a really high Rethug/conservative bias, only 4 other non-banned polls on 538 have a higher RW bias

[Curky]

9. You are confused

Scott Rasmussen no longer works for Rasmussen reports, which he founded. He left that company and found it Harris x.

Your claim that Harrisx has a conservative bias is unfounded as far as I know.
Rasmussen Reports messed up the midterms, but at the time it was no longer owned by Scott Rasmussen. He was working elsewhere.

[Celerity]

13. 'Your claim that Harrisx has a conservative bias is unfounded as far as I know.'

You have a funny definition of 'unfounded'

It is skewed with a really high Rethug/conservative bias, only 4 other non-banned polls on 538 have a higher RW bias

per 538

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/





Sorry about the Trump daily tracking thing, I conflated 2 different polls, my bad

[thesquanderer]

8. re: "Biden now has 28%...compared to 27% before the debates." - No, 29% before debates.

Where did you see 27? The pre-debate HarrisX says 29.

[Curky]

10. You are right but only 1% loss

No big deal at all.

[thesquanderer]

11. Ah, it's "importantly" if it's up by a point but "no big deal" if it's down by a point. Got it! (nt)

[Curky]

19. It's important either way

But you think it's important in a negative way, and I say it's important in a positive way. After allegedly bombing big time, Biden drops a statistically super insignificant 1%.
I had the same opinion if a Biden +1 scenario.

[thesquanderer]

20. Actually, I think a one point difference in either direction is pretty insignificant.

I never said it was important. I only pointed out that you said it was important when it was one point up but no big deal when it was one point down. I just chalk it up to human nature.

[tishaLA]

12. So Harris' numbers shot up, Biden's dipped a bit

and this is narrative-busting?

[Thekaspervote]

14. Morning consult shows Harris has already lost 5 of the 8 pts gained post debate

[tishaLA]

15. The OP isn't about the Morning Consult poll

Hope this helps/

[thesquanderer]

16. Those two Morning Consult figures for Harris are not directly comparable

See the post at https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287181483#post23 and posts that follow

(It's about Biden, but the same applies to Harris)

[Curky]

18. The narrative is not that Biden dipped "a bit"

The narrative is that Biden bombed big time.
You don't bomb big time and lose 1 %.
Find me a pundit who said Biden was a tiny wee bit flawed in the debate.

[tishaLA]

23. Find me a pundit who said

his numbers would drop precipitously

[thesquanderer]

17. Here's the post-debate Morning Consult update, with historical chart

Chart ends at June 28.
Green bar at top is Biden.
Black bar in the middle is Sanders.
Blue bar on bottom is Harris.

]

Create your own comparisons at https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/

[Cha]

21. Well Kick then!

[flamingdem]

24. I thought he'd come through this

will flyin' colors!