When the primary silly season is over, we have THIS to look forward to...

[wyldwolf]

... not that taking anything for granted. But...

Forecast Model Predicts Democratic Win In 2020

Rachel Bitecofer’s Negative Partisanship Model — which nailed the 2018 midterm elections — predicts Democrats will win the presidency in 2020.

“The leaking of the Trump campaign’s internal polling has somewhat softened the blow of this forecast, as that polling reaffirms what my model already knew: Trump’s 2016 path to the White House, which was the political equivalent of getting dealt a Royal Flush in poker, is probably not replicable in 2020 with an agitated Democratic electorate. And that is really bad news for Donald Trump because the Blue Wall of the Midwest was then, and is now, the ONLY viable path for Trump to win the White House.”

“Start with the numerical fact that Trump ‘won’ Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan with 47.22%, 48.18%, and 47.5% of the vote, respectively, after five times the normal number in those states cast their ballots for an option other than Trump or Clinton. This, combined with the depressed turnout of African Americans (targeted with suppression materials by the Russians) and left-leaning Independents turned off by Clinton (targeted with defection materials by the Russians) allowed Trump to pull off an improbable victory, one that will be hard to replicate in today’s less nitpicky atmosphere.”

With 270 votes needed to win in the Electoral College, Bitecofer forecasts the map as starting at 279 votes for the Democrats and 197 for the Republicans, with an additional 62 a tossup.

http://cnu.edu/wasoncenter/2019/07/01-2020-election-forecast/

[rampartc]

1. there is no "blue wall of the midwest."

our candidate is going to have make a few keepable promises to motivate the voters of Michigan, ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

we must start deciding what these people (and the rest of our citizens) need to earn their votes.

[DownriverDem]

2. Maybe not as you say

but I live in Michigan and trump is not supported here.

[Indygram]

3. Beto canvassers in red districts in Texas show Beto beating Trump with moderate Republicans

If Beto is the nominee he will turn Texas blue and help MJ Hegar take out Cornyn. There is NO path for Trump without Texas. No other Democrat can win in Texas. He also already has a state wide organization. He will also go to those rust belt states and LISTEN to the voters there, talk to them and win them over. That's how he campaigns. He will do that in more states than those too. The man is a TIRELESS campaigner. Beto can and will deliver historic downticket gains all over the country. He has been fully vetted and his baggage is minimal, mainly from when he was very young. Politically speaking, he is not controversial and has operated with authenticity. He nearly won Texas by talking about PROGRESSIVE policy positions.

[AlexSFCA]

4. I have no doubt Beto can win but why is polling so low in dem primary

Maybe his campaign is not scalable. He was so great in texas but I’m not seeing that in the primary.

[FailureToCommunicate]

5. What does this line mean: "...after five times the normal number in those..."

"...after five times the normal number in those states cast their ballots for an option other than Trump or Clinton."

"Option"? as in "Other" or "none" ??

Just hadn't heard that analysis angle before.