Some perspective on early leads in the polls

[bluewater]

From the 2007 Democratic Primary campaigns:

Rasmussen Reports Poll
June 25–28, 2007

Hillary Clinton 39%, Barack Obama 26%, John Edwards 13%, Bill Richardson 5%, Joe Biden 3%, Dennis Kucinich 3%, Chris Dodd 1%, Mike Gravel 0%, Undecided 9%

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2008_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries


President Obama did not lead in any national poll until Feb 1-3 2008.

To date, in 2019 no candidate has broken away from the field. The 2020 nomination remains wide open.

[wyldwolf]

1. Has anyone said otherwise?

[bluewater]

7. Some people have.

One just did in the post following yours.

[wyldwolf]

14. He confirmed Biden has the lead. He agreed that lead would shrink.

Just for the record, Gore led in 2000 at this time. Clinton led in 2016 at this time. If memory serves, Mondale led most of the way in '84. That doesn't mean Biden has a lock, but what happened in 2008 doesn't mean he doesn't.

[Honeycombe8]

2. Different now. Clinton was NEVER the runaway leader, like Biden has been this year.

That's what is unusual. Biden started out the gate so far ahead of ALL the others....and stayed far ahead. He goes up, he goes down, his lead has lessened quite a bit. But he has remained fairly well ahead consistently for months. Not once has anyone caught up w/him.

Of course, he's going down. When you're at the top, there's only one way to go.

[bluewater]

3. That is flat out wrong, sorry. Facts are Stubborn Things.

You are just wrong when you say this:

"Clinton was NEVER the runaway leader, like Biden has been this year.

Lets look at the facts:

The RCP Poll polling average lead for Biden is +14.3, and that includes a lot of pre-debate polling

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

Here are the polls for the same time period as now back in 2007:

Clinton +13 June 25–28, 2007
Hillary Clinton 39%, Barack Obama 26%, John Edwards 13%, Bill Richardson 5%, Joe Biden 3%, Dennis Kucinich 3%, Chris Dodd 1%, Mike Gravel 0%, Undecided 9%

Clinton +23 June 26–27, 2007
Hillary Clinton 42%, Barack Obama 19%, Al Gore 14%, John Edwards 10%, Dennis Kucinich 2%, Joe Biden 1%, Chris Dodd 1%, Mike Gravel 1%, Bill Richardson 1%, Unsure 6%, Wouldn't vote (vol.) 3%

Clinton +26 June 26–27, 2007
Hillary Clinton 47%, Barack Obama 21%, John Edwards 13%, Bill Richardson 3%, Joe Biden 2%, Dennis Kucinich 2%, Chris Dodd 1%, Mike Gravel 1%, Other (vol.) 1%, Unsure 7%, Wouldn't vote (vol.) 3%

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2008_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries

So, not to be disagreeable, but I did provide a link to all the polls showing this in the OP.

You are just wrong, Clinton was much more of a "runaway" leader than Biden has been.

Facts are stubborn things.

[StevieM]

4. Clinton didn't have that lead in early 2007. She went out and built it up in the first 6-9 months

of the race.

It wasn't given to her on a silver platter--she earned it.

[bluewater]

5. In every poll listed from January 2007 to Feb 2008, Hillary Clinton is leading.

This link shows national poll results in 2007:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2008_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries

In every poll listed from January 2007 to Feb 2008, Hillary Clinton is leading.

This makes the point that an early lead in the polls does not guarantee who the eventual nominee will be.

That is the point I am making about 2019.

[StevieM]

8. But my point is that she didn't have as wide a lead in early 2007 as she did in mid to late 2007.

My point is about not understating how impressive a candidate she was at various points in that race.

And that highlights your point even more. HRC had a modest lead, she built it up into a much bigger lead, and she still lost.

Biden has a smaller lead at this point, so in a sense he is even more vulnerable to slipping. On the other hand, he won't have the media relentlessly trying to destroy him the way that they did to Hillary in both 2008 and 2016.

[bluewater]

9. Hillary Clinton should be President now

We all know she was robbed.

And you are absolutely right:

"My point is about not understating how impressive a candidate she was at various points in that race."

She proved how impressive she is by winning the popular vote by 3,000,000 votes in 2016.

And I am not saying that Joe Biden isn't an impressive candidate in his own right now.

I am just pointing out that an early lead in the polls does not guarantee who the nominee will be, and that Biden's current lead isn't any greater than Clinton's was at this point in time.

Thank you for making your points about Hillary Clinton. I totally agree with them.

[StevieM]

12. I appreciate your kind words.

I agree that the Democratic race is wide open. I am still trying to decide between a few candidates, namely Harris, O'Rourke and Warren.

I tend not to think too much about the 2016 popular vote win. I worry that it lets James Comey off the hook and leads Democrats to underestimate how much damage he did. Without his repeated illegitimate actions we would have destroyed Trump.

[Honeycombe8]

10. Cherry picking numbers. Biden is DOWN to a 14% lead. He was at 30% lead.

Clinton never had that much of a lead. Her high point was a 28% lead, I think. Somewhere in that range. It didn't last long, either.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html

[bluewater]

11. When did Biden have a 40% LEAD? Please provide a link.

Never?

His highest polling result was in the 41-42% range, that was not a 40% lead. Are you claiming all his opponents only had 1% in some poll?

Please provide the link for your claim.

And as for your accusation of CHERRY PICKING, well, I have provide this link to an extensive list of national polls over and over again:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2008_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries

Sorry that the facts continue to disagree with you. Biden's lead now was no larger at all then Clinton's was in 2007.

Facts are stubborn things.

[bluewater]

13. Oh, you editted your post removing the 40% lead claim. Good.

But you are still wrong:

"Cherry picking numbers. Biden is DOWN to a 14% lead. He was at 30% lead.
Clinton never had that much of a lead. Her high point was a 28% lead, I think. Somewhere in that range. It didn't last long, either."

[This made more sense when you mistakenly had Biden having a 40% lead, a 30% to 28% comparison seems like a quibble, but let's examine that in any case.]

Clinton's biggest lead according to that RCP link was 27.8%, which you claim is smaller than Biden's lead of 30% which lasted longer.

once again, this is simply wrong.


Biden's BIGGEST lead lasted from May 10th to May 12th and was 26.8%

People can see this CLEARLY for themselves at the RCP trendline linked below:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

Look, I am starting to feel bad pointing out that you are wrong, but you are wrong.

Biden is not more of a "runaway" leader in 2019, than Clinton was in 2007.

An early lead in the polls is no guarantee who the 2020 nominee will be. The field remains wide open.

Facts are stubborn things.

[LanternWaste]

6. Last week, we're instructed polls ares meaningless this far out...

It does seem however, that those making that argument are willing to deny it when the polls validate their own choices (or when their narratives drive a poll).

I'm pretty sure though, the "polls ares meaningless this far out" meme will be immediately distributed to consumers again as soon as the polls invalidating choices are posted.

[wyldwolf]

15. Polls are quite meaningful this far out

1. They're a snapshot of what the electorate is currently feeling
2. They're drivers to make lagging candidates change their strategy.

Early polling is quite consequential. They don't often predict the last person standing, but they have. Of course, that isn't what they're for.