CNN Poll - Biden 43%; Sanders 13%; Harris 12% ** Best Chance to Beat Trump **

[Skya Rhen]

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/07/01/politics/2020-democratic-candidates-poll/index.html


Cf Paragraph 11

Also was reported live on CNN

[LibFarmer]

1. Everyone predicted this

The cheap shot at the debate gave Biden far more exposure and people understood it to be a cheap shot.

This took away exposure from all other candidates. Well done Senator Harris.

[Eliot Rosewater]

2. NOT a cheap shot FFS

[LibFarmer]

3. It was

It was deceitful involving mischaracterization of what Biden said.

[progressoid]

8. If you think this was a cheap shot, wait until the general election.

...assuming that Biden gets the nomination.

[Zambero]

71. We fully expect cheap shots and outright lies from Republicans

However, the circular firing squad approach is not helpful in a Democratic debate. Particularly during these times when so much is at stake for 2020.

[EveHammond13]

78. +1

[progressoid]

96. Let's get out the guitar!

[onetexan]

64. agree, bad judgement on Kamala's part. But i'm willing to forgive her...provided she doesn't do this

anymore. I'd like her to be Joe's VP choice.

[FakeNoose]

85. Yes I agree, this is her first time out and she's gonna make mistakes

Even Uncle Joe understands (I think.) He's giving her a pass and so should we.
But it had better not happen again, we won't be so charitable next time.

I want her to run on Biden's ticket too. I think they'd be dynamite together.

People forget that Kamala is only in her first term as a Senator. She doesn't know all the ins and outs of national politicking, but she's learning fast.

[onetexan]

88. u got it, hopefully it stops here and they can patch it up

[Honeycombe8]

106. It wasn't a mistake. She had to do something daring to break out of the pack & up her numbers.

It was a calculated move, complete with pic of her as a child ready to go. It worked. So gotta hand it to her for getting her numbers up. Whether it was enough, who knows. But if it worked once, she will do it again. Except others now know to expect that, so they'll be more prepared.

She did mischaracterize his past actions and work and stance on busing. So in that sense, it was disingenuous of her and not quite on the up and up. IMO.

So she didn't make a mistake. It was a planned attempt at making some time, and she succeeded. She's an adept prosecutor and I think an experienced debater.

[Demsrule86]

101. Now according to another post she is attacking him as sexist...

[LakeArenal]

103. What? Once? OWhat about Franken?

[Zambero]

69. Harris told Biden "I don't THINK you're a racist"

Instead, Harris might have considered using the "I KNOW you are not..." phrase instead. That would have put the rest of her words in a much better context. As it was, her choice of words implied that perhaps she could be wrong. Biden certainly did not expect to hear this sort of thing, and he didn't deserve it either.

[emmaverybo]

90. And misrepresentation of herself as benefitting from Federally mandated busing.

[mcar]

21. Not even close to a cheap shot

One has to wonder...

[Eliot Rosewater]

30. Joe didnt think it was a cheap shot either.

and all he had to do was admit his position on busing was wrong and he would have been applauded

[Butterflylady]

76. If Biden was in the lower tier would this even have come up

I think not.

[UncleTomsEvilBrother]

4. I think you're only telling part of the story...

...and, frankly, that can end up being the biggest turnoff of DEM voters. It's not going to be good for Biden if the situation be left as "cheap shot." If people continue to bring it up, we're going to have to confront the fact that he voted against a civil rights law in favor of state's rights.

Should the Biden camp counter attack? Yes, this is politics. This primary race is a long one, but it's not long enough for revisionist history, though.

[bluewater]

14. Predicted Biden dropping 10 points?

This might not be the poll you think it is.

The actual voter preference poll for the 2020 Nominee is here:

CNN Poll: Harris and Warren rise and Biden slides after first Democratic debates

By Jennifer Agiesta, CNN Polling Director

Sens. Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren have made steep gains after the first Democratic presidential debate, a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS. shows, with former Vice President Joe Biden's lead over the field shrinking to a narrow 5 points.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/01/politics/2020-democratic-candidates-poll/index.html

But again, it's early. Early polls are no guarantee who the eventual nominee will be.

[PunkinPi]

18. Umm...

Source --> https://www.huffpost.com/entry/elizabeth-warren-kamala-harris-electability-poll_n_5d18ca8ae4b03d61163d2743

[emmaverybo]

89. Upstaging your scene partners may facilitate a star turn and draw rave reviews, but

once you get known for it, you get known as a prima Donna. You may find yourself missing out on
future roles while other performers develop strategies to counter your cheap trick.

Better be a big star with a big following and in much demand to repeatedly get away with this old move.

[hlthe2b]

5. I think you may have heard wrong.. A previous post was far different

and here is what i find online:

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/democratic-primary-poll-july-2019/index.html

Biden scored 22% (down from 32% in May). while California Sen. Kamala Harris has jumped into second place at 17% (up from 8%).

That said, I really think these are fairly meaningless right now..

[hlthe2b]

15. I think I see what the OP was referring to: 43% say Biden has best chance to beat Trump

Overall, 43% of potential Democratic voters say Biden has the best chance to beat Trump in 2020, 30 points ahead of his nearest competitor, Bernie Sanders. Further, 6 in 10 potential Democratic voters say it is more important to them that the party nominate a candidate with a strong chance of beating Trump than it is that they nominate someone who shares their views on major issues.

(From the same CNN poll)
https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/01/politics/2020-democratic-candidates-poll/index.html

[Thekaspervote]

19. Thx that is what most matters.. of course just IMHO

[Celerity]

26. lolol

Candidate A could have 50% (or more) think s/he could have the best chance to win versus Candidate C (in the general)

but if Candidate B (who has less people picking them as 'best to beat Candidate C' than Canidate A's %) gets more votes in the primary and wins the nomination

Candidate A's 50% in the 'most likely to win category' is utterly irrelevant

[marylandblue]

52. +1 Also, voters perception of electability will change based on more exposure and poll results.

If other polls show Biden's lead shrinking, it undercuts his electability argument. If Warren and Harris outperform Biden again in the next debate, they will start to look like stronger opponents against Trump.

[PoliticAverse]

6. CNN Poll: Harris and Warren rise and Biden slides after first Democratic debates

https://pix11.com/2019/07/01/cnn-poll-harris-and-warren-rise-and-biden-slides-after-first-democratic-debates/

Sens. Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren have made steep gains after the first Democratic presidential debate, a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS. shows, with former Vice President Joe Biden’s lead over the field shrinking to a narrow 5 points.

The results indicate a significant tightening in the race for the Democratic nomination.

The poll, conducted after the two-night debate, finds 22% of registered voters who are Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents backing Biden for the party’s presidential nomination, 17% Harris, 15% Warren and 14% Sen. Bernie Sanders. No one else in the 23-person field tested hits 5%.

That represents a 10-point decline in support for Biden since the last CNN poll in May, while Harris, of California, has posted a 9-point increase, and Warren, of Massachusetts, has boosted her support by 8 points. No other candidates have seen significant movement since the last poll

Full poll results: http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2019/images/07/01/rel8a.-.democrats.and.healthcare.pdf

[Kind of Blue]

10. Thanks!

[thesquanderer]

16. This poll doesn't say what people here seem to think it says. 43% is NOT people supporting Biden.

43% is the measure of who people think has the best chance of beating Trump.

IOW, the question isn't "who would you vote for" but more like "how do you predict other people will vote."

The same poll says that 22% of the respondents would actually vote for Biden.

[Butterflylady]

83. That doesn't make sense.

Now let me get this right. 43% think that Biden has the best chance to beat the anal idiot but only 22% would vote for him. Why would you not vote for Biden if you thought he had the best chance of beating the anal idiot. The only thing I can think of is repugs were included in the poll.

[marylandblue]

99. One asks who want to vote for. The other asks who you think others will vote for.

Since my vote is only one among millions, I can safely vote for my favorite candidate, knowing that everyone else will pick the guy who will win anyway.

But it's a big psychout because if enough people vote for the "unelectable" candidate, you can get a surprise victory. On the other hand, if people go with the "electable" candidate over their actual preference, you can have a candidate nobody actually likes winning the primary and losing the general.

[thesquanderer]

100. No, the poll is just dem and dem-leaning voters. But it still makes sense.

43% of those polled think Biden has the best chance of beating Trump.
Only 22% of those polled actually intend to vote for Biden in the primary, as things stand today.
So presumably, they think that their candidate of choice can also beat Trump.
If you feel that any of a number of candidates are likely to beat him, you might as well vote for who you really like best, right?

It works the other way, too. I did a poll at https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287165957 , 32 Biden supporters answered, and only 7 of them said they would absolutely switch to another candidate if the polls started showing that some other candidate was stronger against Trump than Biden would be.

[Kind of Blue]

7. Link? Just saw another CNN poll that's quite different from yours.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/01/politics/2020-democratic-candidates-poll/index.html?no-st=1562012427

[bluewater]

11. Polling differnt things

this is NOT the voter preference poll for the 2020 Democratic Nominee.

This one is:

CNN Poll: Harris and Warren rise and Biden slides after first Democratic debates

By Jennifer Agiesta, CNN Polling Director

Updated 4:13 PM ET, Mon July 1, 2019


https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/01/politics/2020-democratic-candidates-poll/index.html

[Kind of Blue]

13. Appreciate the clarity!

[bluewater]

9. This isn't the voter prefernce for Democratic Nominee though

That one gives Biden a +5 lead

CNN Poll: Harris and Warren rise and Biden slides after first Democratic debates

Sens. Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren have made steep gains after the first Democratic presidential debate, a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS. shows, with former Vice President Joe Biden's lead over the field shrinking to a narrow 5 points.
The results indicate a significant tightening in the race for the Democratic nomination.
The poll, conducted after the two-night debate, finds 22% of registered voters who are Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents backing Biden for the party's presidential nomination, 17% Harris, 15% Warren and 14% Sen. Bernie Sanders. No one else in the 23-person field tested hits 5%.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/01/politics/2020-democratic-candidates-poll/index.html

But again, it's early. Early polls are no guarantee who will be the eventual nominee.

[True Dough]

12. You're right

This thread is causing confusion. Thanks for clarifying!

[thesquanderer]

20. It's confusing because people don't actually read the linked articles. ;-)

(Or sometimes posters don't include them!)

43% think Biden has the best chance of beating Trump.
Only 22% of them at this point actually intend to vote for Biden in the primary.
Presumably, they think that their candidate of choice can also beat Trump.

[True Dough]

25. I'd say that's a sound theory

Biden's name recognition is still carrying him. But we've only been through two separate debates featuring 20 candidates. Still plenty of time for Americans who only follow politics casually to become familiar with some of the up-and-comers.

[customerserviceguy]

57. Reading through the numbers

Buttigieg had a pretty good night, without any blowback potential from the way he handled it.

And Beto was a big loser.

[True Dough]

68. I can't see why there would be blowback over Mayor Pete's ownership of the AA community/policing

issue and the recent shooting.

He's inserting himself at the center of that controversy and vowing to improve relations and provide even greater accountability. It's a monumental task and, unfortunately, one that could cost him his shot at the presidency in 2020 if he doesn't handle it right or if time/further circumstances are not on his side.

If that's the case, I'll be rooting for Mayor Pete in 2024!

[customerserviceguy]

86. That's why I said, no blowback

Pete did not attack anybody, and he got a chance to show his intellect and compassion before a large audience. He showed an abundance of humility that many are not used to seeing from politicians.

Oh, and you mean 2028, right?

[True Dough]

93. I didn't mean to suggest that you meant there was any blowback

just that I can't fathom why anyone would take Pete to task over his handling of what's transpired to far.

"I couldn't get it done."

Those are powerful words of accountability, a rare occurrence with politicians.

And I meant 2024. If Biden does get the nomination (I'm not ready to concede that yet, at all), then he may not be able to fulfill two terms. We'll see.

[customerserviceguy]

95. I presume that if Joe Biden

gets elected president next year, that he will have a VP that will be ready for the job in either 2024 or 2028, that person will have a clear advantage over anyone else in the field. If Biden has not picked a candidate of that caliber, then he may very well not win in 2020.

[True Dough]

97. Pete will outshine any Biden VP pick

I believe it!

That's if Pete doesn't pull off the unexpected POTUS upset next year. Don't rule it out!

[Thekaspervote]

17. Another post debate poll June 30th

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/democratic_nomination_polls/

[Celerity]

22. this OP is profoundly misleading, as Biden is only at 22% in the headline

number, the 'who would you vote for' category

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/07/01/politics/2020-democratic-candidates-poll/index.html

The poll, conducted after the two-night debate, finds 22% of registered voters who are Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents backing Biden for the party's presidential nomination, 17% Harris, 15% Warren and 14% Sen. Bernie Sanders. No one else in the 23-person field tested hits 5%.

[wyldwolf]

24. No it isn't. His headline is completely accurate

Overall, 43% of potential Democratic voters say Biden has the best chance to beat Trump in 2020.

[Celerity]

27. that is NOT how the verbiage makes it look, it is very vague and unclear

it very likely could be seen or read as

** Best Chance to Beat Trump **

being an add-on 'see I told you so' declarative intensifier

[wyldwolf]

28. Perhaps to you. But he did ***highlight the money shot ***

[Celerity]

39. money shot my sweet FA

the money shot would be this

Harris plus 19 points net gain on Biden from the last poll



it is one poll, long way to go

[wyldwolf]

42. You could avoid all this if you'd just read the post title

Except for LBN, all DU forums are for editorializing. He highlighted what he felt was the most important part of the poll. If you feel mislead or slighted, that's your issue to deal with.

[Celerity]

44. the reason I posted was because I DID read the misleading, spun up title, roflmaoooooo

[wyldwolf]

47. the title was neither spun or misleading. It's exactly what the article states. roflmaoooooo

Overall, 43% of potential Democratic voters say Biden has the best chance to beat Trump in 2020,

Do you deny the article states that?

[Celerity]

48. keep on rolling with that

[wyldwolf]

51. that's all you got? C'mon. Tell us the article didn't state that.

[Celerity]

72. I brook no truck with the fact that in terms of that specific question, that was the data

I do take umbrage with the bury the lede attempt via a misleading and/or unclear titling.

I have seen posters in other threads who thought that MAIN number (ie. who would you vote for today) was Biden at 43% and Harris 31 points behind at 12% for the MAIN number (ie. who would you actually vote for) based off this OP. In reality she is only 5 points behind Biden in the all important main question of who they would VOTE FOR.

This OP should have said specifically that those results were to a very specific down-line question, not just toss up the numbers

CNN Poll - Biden 43%; Sanders 13%; Harris 12%

and then obliquely toss on

** Best Chance to Beat Trump **

which simply seems like a declarative intensifier (ie editorialising or cheer-leading) that is all so common on this board.

It confused people, it muddied the water, and that is the whole point of my posts on this subject.

[wyldwolf]

73. I think that 43% number bothers you and you would have rather it not be a real number

[Celerity]

74. I have no feelings either way about the 43%, I only take issue with the way it was

presented. It is a good number for Biden, versus the bad main one.

Data is data, it is a real as anything that can be numerically extrapolated from a set of questions asked to a set of people.

If only our actual votes were as reliably tabulated. I do NOT trust the Rethugs and their foreign helpers to allow a fair count, AND for damn sure I think they will try (and probably succeed, unfortunately) at suppressing millions of potential votes for us via false purging, poll tax-like games (FL felon shite) Voter ID games, caging etc etc etc.

[wyldwolf]

75. then your issue is with the owners and admins of DU. Go ahead. Report the post, LOL.

[Celerity]

81. why would I report the post? that is patently ridiculous

I have zero issues with the owners/admins either.

done here

all I am doing now is inadvertently kicking this thread

[wyldwolf]

82. you obviously feel there is an issue and the poster has somehow did something wrong

See if the admins agree.

[LanternWaste]

110. I get that reading comprehension can be hard.

That being the only real complaint with the piece, though creatively implied as though it's not on you.

[Celerity]

112. My comprehension skills are just fine, but thanks for the condescension anyway.

[Skya Rhen]

34. This "verbiage" is the exact one CNN used when they presented the poll live on TV.

Plus said "verbiage" is in paragraph 13 of the article.


I did not see a specific number for Buttigieg but it is under 5%, as CNN has reported.

[Celerity]

46. keep on flailing, your spin was NOT the actual title of the link at all

I did not see a specific number for Buttigieg but it is under 5%, as CNN has reported.

its right there in the poll which you are trying to spin off, he unfortunately dropped a point (probably to do with the shooting nigtmare)



if Pete falters, I am 90% probably sliding over to Harris btw

[Skya Rhen]

54. I never said that it was - it was the heading on CNN Live TV.

If you take a minute to look at the CNN video that I posted, you would see the heading, too.

Now I see Buttigieg's 4% - thanks for this...

[Celerity]

58. I already looked at the actual poll and saw the downline numbers

http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2019/images/07/01/rel8a.-.democrats.and.healthcare.pdf

[Kaleva]

29. "CNN Poll: Harris and Warren rise and Biden slides after first Democratic debates" is the headline

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/07/01/politics/2020-democratic-candidates-poll/index.html

I drew some ire when I wrote an OP, provided excerpts and a link to the article, but wrote my own headline.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287151065

[wyldwolf]

31. there is no rule in any forum but LBN that article headlines must be used.

I've been here for for 17 years and only occasionally do people get rankled over a DUer editorializing an article. But it is what a discussion forum is for.

[Kaleva]

33. That's what I said but I was accused of shenanigans.

Because I didn't use the actual headline.

[wyldwolf]

38. next time tell them, nicely...

Fuck off. Except for LBN, DU forums are one big editorial page.

Someone may disagree with your conclusions, but they can't say your technique is a foul.

[Kaleva]

49. I have two hides for being blunt. I don't need to add another!

LOL!

[wyldwolf]

53. I likey hold a DU record in that respect

[LanternWaste]

109. You're confusing "misleading" with "it doesn't validate my narrative" again.

[Celerity]

111. Project much?

[riverine]

23. You say CLEARLY in the headline

** Best Chance to Beat Trump **

and that is what I care most about.

Biden it is.

[Thekaspervote]

59. Indeed!!

[Eliot Rosewater]

32. Who cares? This is the kind of stuff that will DIVIDE us.

[JustThinking...]

35. And who the voters want to win matters how?

Sorry for the snark, still bitter over 2016.

[still_one]

36. States elect nominees and presidents, not national polls

[Skya Rhen]

37. Actual Video of CNN reporting

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/07/01/politics/2020-democratic-candidates-poll/index.html

[Curky]

40. Good news for everyone

In this poll.

[Skya Rhen]

66. Except for those 20 candidates pulling under 5%....

[RandySF]

41. I thought Harris was at 17%.

[Curky]

43. Well, pollsters sometimes differ

I'm a Biden supporter and I'm happy about the CNN poll, but I admit that pollsters often differ, sometimes significantly from each other.

[RandySF]

45. I mean the CNN poll.

[Celerity]

55. she is at 17%, Biden dropped 10 points to 22%, the OP's playing 'cherry-pick a category' games

and using verbiage that intentionally makes it unclear.

Harris gained a net plus 19 on Biden poll to poll in terms of who people say they will vote for


the OP is referencing a part of the poll that asks who people think will have the best chance in the general

[Thekaspervote]

60. Don't see it!

[Celerity]

63. maybe try a trip to the optometrist, some really great new specs out there

https://www.aceandtate.com

[Cha]

50. To BEAT the Psycho! Thank You, Skya..

[Thekaspervote]

61. +1000

[colsohlibgal]

56. It Will Tighten

Some polls show one thing, others show something different. Results in the primaries are what matters.

I expect it to be a horse race.

[Skya Rhen]

62. I expect that Kamala's bump will subside sooner rather than later...

[iluvtennis]

67. My hope is for a Biden-Harris ticket after all of the primary hoopla is over. I'd also be happy with

a Biden-Warren ticket.



(pic from late last year/early this year)

[Demsrule86]

102. You could never trust her and wht does she bring to the ticket?

[iluvtennis]

104. Harris and Warren bring intelligence/smarts to the ticket and they add the female persuasion

to the ticket.

[Skya Rhen]

105. Susan Rice does all of that, as well - plus she and Joe respect each other...

[Demsrule86]

108. That is true...boy the right would have a meltdown...haha.

[Demsrule86]

107. I think Stacy Abams does all those things...and might bring us GA for the presidential

race and for the GA senate race as well.

[Peacetrain]

70. Well alrighty now...

[BigmanPigman]

77. I had a DU poll yesterday and "beating tRump"

won 74% over "policy" when choosing a primary candidiate.

"When choosing a Dem Primary Candidate do you vote based on the candidates' policies or their ability to beat tRump/GOP?"

Policy. 9 (16%)
Defeat tRump. 42 (74%)
Personality. 0 (0%)
Other. 6 (11%)

[Thekaspervote]

84. Thx for doing your poll bigmanpigman I voted in your poll for best chance to dump rump

[BigmanPigman]

87. The poll was locked so who knows what the final results would

be if it were up longer. It should have been posted under the "Primaries Forum". I am sure the number to beat tRump still would have been the highest by far. "Policy" is far behind which is interesting since we all focus on Policy during the entire campaign. The moron has changed Dem voters' priorities, I think.

[Kaleva]

94. Harris is tough, smart, prepared and is quite capable of beating Trump.

Heck, a number of our candidates can do it.

[shenmue]

79. Couple of other interesting articles

https://www.theroot.com/kamala-harris-now-tied-for-3rd-with-elizabeth-warren-in-1836010500

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/07/01/harris-warren-debate-poll-1392964

[pnwmom]

80. But only 22% are backing Biden now. You left that part out. nt

[bluewater]

91. Denial isn't just a river in Egypt

The long term trend is what it is.

People in denial today will have to face the reality that Biden will not be the nominee in their own time.

[ucrdem]

92. The fact is that in the GE Joe's positions including busing will carry swing states.

Primary polls don't show this at all but as Nov. 2020 looms closer and the talking heads have moved on from last week's blood sport reality will begin to sink in. Neither Warren or Harris can win the GE without a lot of walking back on this and other strategic positions and that's what they'll get nailed on if they get that far. Joe doesn't have that problem but now he's got to step over Kamala and Cory to get to the GE. That's unfortunate.

[highplainsdem]

98. K&R!