CNN just reported in their new poll that Biden still has the best chance to beat Trump...not even

[Demsrule86]

close. So if we pick a different candidate, we will have a very difficult time winning a general and Trump could well get four more years. Mayor Pete, has 0% AA vote. was the only other interesting thing reported...except that Biden still leads Harris in the AA community. One other interesting thing is...Harris was not picked as best to handle health care, the economy and a range of other issues.

"Kamala Harris' jump in our poll is almost assuredly because of the debates. We know this in part because Democrats overwhelmingly say she did the best of any candidate and because she saw a large jump in our poll.

But she's weak on the issues when compared to the other top candidates. Only 10% of potential Democratic primary voters say she is best to handle health care. That drops to 6% on the climate crisis and the economy. On all of these top issues, three other Democrats do better than she does."

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/democratic-primary-poll-july-2019/index.html

[SouthernProgressive]

1. This extrapolation can not be made.

"So if we pick a different candidate, we will have a very difficult time winning a general and Trump could well get four more years."

There is a serious lack of understanding of polls.

[Demsrule86]

8. It is true...the rightwing is salivating for either Warren or Harris who have taken positions that

will limit their chances of winning a general...sure I support both in a general..but that is our reality IMHO.

[SouthernProgressive]

29. This is an opinion based in personal understanding.

"So if we pick a different candidate, we will have a very difficult time winning a general and Trump could well get four more years."

Not something that can be called "true." Polls are a snapshot in time.

[Demsrule86]

56. An opinion based on polls ...the states we need...an informed opinion if you will.

[SouthernProgressive]

57. "an informed opinion if you will."

[ooky]

82. Its an opinion I think a lot of people share.

Telling 130 million people you are going to fuck with their health care without knowing what you are doing is pretty risky. Not a risk I want for our party to take.

[gldstwmn]

105. Telling 130 million people the NRA is okay is equally as dangerous.

[LanternWaste]

111. What leads you to allege "equally"?

[Demsrule86]

119. My brother in law belongs to the NRA...and votes Democratic every election...separating members

from the NRA organization is not a bad thing...and where has it got us to demonize every member of the NRA...a loss of the Senate if you ask me. And it looks like we may lose our shot at Arizone this year because of this sort of thing. When I lived in Georgia, we had the last Democratic governor in office...he made some mistakes and ended up pissing off groups of people he needed...and in the end he tossed those voters he needed to win out of the big tent that made up his support. We have done the same thing and it shows in the Senate and in presidential elections...so now we run on busing and reparations...yeah that is the ticket ...to no where.

[gldstwmn]

123. Bless his and your hearts...

[Demsrule86]

128. So funny...well bless you heart too honey...got to add the honey.

Last edited Tue Jul 2, 2019, 05:41 PM - Edit history (1)

[gldstwmn]

131. The NRA is a money laundering front for Russia and God knows who else.

They have basically been the enabler of every mass shooting in this country for the last 20 years.

[Thekaspervote]

135. No one is arguing that!! Most members are skeet shooters, hunters and competition shooters

You can “kill” the messenger if that works for you but those are facts. No, I don’t like guns and am not a member. A president has to govern all, the people. Not just democrats... an indirect quote from President Obama.

[Demsrule86]

143. Great point...my brother in law is a doll ...and a loyal Democrat and a hunter who is a member of

the NRA...this lockstep search for purity is going to cost us multiple elections.

[gldstwmn]

150. Purity? Like those rings the Jonas Brothers used to wear?

I can deal with flawed. What I can't deal with is a Democrat running for president espousing a philosophy from the last century that the NRA is okay. I accept the Mueller Report findings that they are a money laundering front for the Russians who interfered in our elections. Maybe someone should ask Biden is he accepts the findings of the Muller Report?

[emmaverybo]

167. Had to add from the last century, didn't you? We can have strong gun control without

alienating voters. Biden is using this election year’s smart politics. As to NRA corruption, that does
not involve the skeet shooting, duck hunting, competition hobbyists.

Biden has written strong gun legislation in the past. He handled the issue under Obama. He believes in it. Knocking NRA members does not get us there.

[gldstwmn]

168. Does Biden accept the findings of the Mueller Report?

I'm more convinced than ever someone needs to ask him.

[emmaverybo]

170. Because we accept that higher-ups in the Catholic Church covered up for pedophile priests,

should we vilify members of the Catholic Church? Makes no sense.

[Demsrule86]

179. Good analogy.

[Demsrule86]

178. That is kind of a silly comment as he has called for impeachment.

[Demsrule86]

175. Busing espoused by your candidate is from the last century...and I dislike the organization but that

doesn't mean that every member is evil.

[gldstwmn]

147. If you give them your time and money you are complicit and support their agenda.

For me you either support the findings of Mueller/Russia or you believe the NRA is okay. There's no middle ground.

[Demsrule86]

176. Exactly...purity at its best or worst...

[Cha]

187. +1!

[Demsrule86]

140. I don't disagree...have told my brother in law that...but the people that are members like my

brother in law who hunts for food on the table are not all bad people and I sure won't turn any votes away.

[gldstwmn]

155. You're alienating more. It's a net loss.

[Demsrule86]

159. So we should only go for certain people...you know without the Senate we get no judges and

no policy. You have to appeal to all the voters... I fail to see why including Democrats who hunt (my brother in law want new gun laws) is somehow a net loss. If you take a look at our history, you will see, we don't win without a big tent approach.

[gldstwmn]

163. We should embrace candidates that most closely align with our 21st century values.

The race to the middle has gotten us absolutely nowhere. Working with Republicans should be pretty low on our list of priorities at this point. The number of registered Democrats outnumbers Republicans by 12 million people. What we should be focusing on is getting them to the polls.

[Demsrule86]

177. The country is center left and we will lose every election as we did in the 80's .

[Thekaspervote]

134. He did NOT say nra is okay. He said it's members.. there is a difference even if you don't think so

[Demsrule86]

145. Exactly right...he is trying to expand our numbers in terms of voters...Kicking everyone out of the

big tent only hurts us.

[Demsrule86]

87. We can look at the states we need and see who has won there recently...and consider what it

would take to win those states...we need a 50 state campaign with a moderate nominee and candidates tailored to the districts they will run in. As it stands now, it is unlikely we will take the Senate. If you examing the historical record,we only win with a big tent approach. We had a 60 person majority when Obama entered the white house comprised of conservadems and progressives...now we have few conservadems and we have no senate majority and not really a great chance in 20.

[spooky3]

50. Gene Robinson had a good column taking issue with that, today:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/never-trumpers-have-a-decision-to-make/2019/07/01/1f1e9c6a-9c2f-11e9-9ed4-c9089972ad5a_story.html?utm_term=.be9628c4bf00

[Demsrule86]

60. I don't agree at all.... I see little support for MFA or other issues that many of our candidates

are running on...My thinkinig is Trump will win if we run on issues like busing, MFA and some of the immigration policy proposed during to the debates...Biden can win the states we need...none of these issues endorsed by Harris or Warren will play well in MI,WI and PA.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

30. Seriously!! When has CNN been reliable when it comes to polling?!

Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[SouthernProgressive]

33. Today, Biden would be our best bet to take on Trump.

The Presidential election is not being held today.

The additional grand claims being made about this show a lack of understanding of statistics.

[Demsrule86]

65. I have no idea which polls are valid or better than other polls...just posted what was out there.

Did you see that Sen.Sanders had a good haul in terms of campaign donations...24 million...impressive.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

144. Sure did, thanks. That's really all you can do is post information... the only poll that matters

obviously will be the one provided by primary voters on the day they cast their votes at the polls.


Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[Demsrule86]

180. So true.

[gldstwmn]

103. Thank you. Biden's people seem to think if they repeat over and over

he's the only one that can win it will be like clicking your heels together ala The Wizard of Oz. Not so. We can and should vote for the candidate who appeals to us most.

[Demsrule86]

120. Biden's supporters have made the case more than once. I have yet to see Harris supporter make

the case as to how she wins the rustbelt.

[gldstwmn]

122. It helps to read their posts.

[Demsrule86]

129. Granted my life has been hectic...but I certainly didn't miss all of them if they were as abundent

as you imply. I have been around today...and haven't seen one.

[gldstwmn]

130. Obama won the Rust Belt.

Why can't Harris? Is it because she's a woman?

[oasis]

132. Obama's authenticity won them over. nt

[Demsrule86]

138. I would agree with that...and Obama was a rock star...few have his political talent.

[oasis]

151. Biden's personal history played large part in molding his

"regular guy" image. Not all of our candidates have the ability to project that with such ease.

[Skya Rhen]

173. Ooooh!!!

[gldstwmn]

133. Harris, Warren, Buttigieg, Sanders, Beto all come across as pretty authentic to me.

[Demsrule86]

139. I think Warren's stunt with the busing was not authentic.

[oasis]

157. "TeeShirtgate" nt

[Demsrule86]

158. That is too funny and true!

[Demsrule86]

137. Biden helped with the rust belt...I believe that is part of why he was chosen.Hillary did better in

the rustbelt in 08.

[gldstwmn]

146. If the national popular vote interstate compact

goes through this will not be an issue.

[Demsrule86]

148. You think it will be in place in 20? So your reply as to how Harris and others win the rust belt

is ...no worries, they won't have to? The compact will be in court for years if they ever get enough states that is and fun fact, the GOP owns the courts at the moment...perhaps a plan just in case the er compact doesn't materialize should be contemplated for winning in 20.

[gldstwmn]

152. I thought the DU line was that the judiciary was going to be the thing to save

us from Trump? Is there any indication the compact won't be in place in 2020? Also if we can flip Texas the Rust Belt isn't really an issue. We're unlikely to lose all three anyway. The soybean farmers are really pissed at Trump.

[Demsrule86]

162. Yeah, It is highly doubtful the compact will be in place in 20...and we have a 5-4 court at the

moment favoring the GOP...as for it being a line about the judiciary. If Trump remains in office, it is unlikely that Ginsberg can hang on for another term...and the court goes from 5-4 to 6 -3...which would be an unimaginable horror.

[gldstwmn]

164. Biden couldn't even get a hearing for Merrick Garland.

[Demsrule86]

165. Everything is Biden's fault I guess...how dare he not get a hearing for Merrick Garland!

I am not sure but I think Biden might behind the flooding her in Ohio...just saying...

[Skya Rhen]

174. Garland will get redress under President Biden.

[Demsrule86]

182. There will be no redress under any nominee...and if we don't take the Senate, it will happen again.

There is nothing we can do about it.

[Skya Rhen]

183. True...

[Demsrule86]

189. Yes...the idea that anyone could have gotten Garland a haearing is ridiculous...McConnell made

up his mind and had the upper hand...it was not a voting issue obviously or we would have won in 16.

[Demsrule86]

185. The only president we will have that is not 'president' Trump is President Biden...because he can

beat Trump in 20... judge or not...just stopping Trump is meaningful to me.

[Thekaspervote]

136. Agree!!

[thesquanderer]

160. Yes, the OP completely misinterprets the poll.

The poll absolutely did not say that Biden has the best chance to beat Trump.

What it said is that Democratic and Dem-leaning voters believe that Biden has the best chance to beat Trump. That is, what they polled were these people's guesses about how OTHER people would vote.

There are indeed polls where voters of all stripes (not just Dems) are asked who THEY would vote for in a head to head matchup... i.e. Biden vs. Trump, Sanders vs. Trump, Warren vs. Trump, etc. Those polls do in fact tell you, if the election were held today, who would likely beat Trump, and by about how much. And those polls DO favor Biden.

However THIS particular poll is not one of those.

There is a big difference between asking how someone will vote, and asking about someone's perception about how other people will vote.

Further, the conclusion drawn from the premise (i.e. "So if we pick a different candidate, we will have a very difficult time winning a general" ) is not justified by the premise. Even if you accept that Biden has the best chance of winning, logically that simply doesn't mean that other potential candidates don't also have an excellent chance of winning.

Even in terms of this poll of how people think other people will vote, just think about if you were asked the question, "Who do you think has the best chance of beating Trump?" What if you think that three candidates have a nearly equal, excellent chance of beating Trump? Well, the survey doesn't allow for that, they questioner will come back with something like, "well, just pick one, the one you think has the best chance, even if only by the smallest amount." If someone thinks Biden has even a TINY advantage over anyone else, he's the one who gets named. So even being on top in a poll like this, which tells you who people think others are most likely to vote for, says nothing about the degree of difference between one candidate and another, so you certainly can't leap to thinking that ANY other candidate will have a "very difficult time winning."

But if you want to get a better idea of who's likely to beat Trump head-to-head, from polls that ask who THEY would vote for as opposed to who they think OTHERS will vote for, here are the most recent ones (note they are pre-debate):



...though even that is imperfect, as it is national, and as we know, popular vote doesn't win elections. You'd have to look state by state for the highest accuracy. Though a sufficiently large spread is likely beyond the possibility of being skewed the other way by the electoral college.

I doubt any of these five candidates would lose any state that HRC carried... if those voters chose Clinton over Trump, it's hard to imagine many of them choosing Trump over any of these possibilities, though there is the variable of those who have turned 18 in the previous four years and who weren't in the voting pool last time. But assuming they don't swing toward Trump, the winner will likely be determined by who can carry Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Anything else is a bonus. And if you look at the head-to-heads for those states, we usually look pretty good there, too... and not just with Biden. See my post of those figures here.

...though again, those are pre-debate figures.

But of course, the election is a long way off, and things can change...

[I M Charlie]

181. This is what the person polled believes

it is not a statement of fact. It may or may not reflect reality. It is just an opinion.

[ucrdem]

2. Harris may have won the perception battle on Thursday

but if she thought she'd get a walk-back from Joe on busing she miscalculated big time. And already the chickens are coming home to roost.

[Demsrule86]

7. I think so...she wanted an apology so she could continue her assault...let her run on busing...

it is a loser of an issue.

[onetexan]

35. Kamala wanting an apology for a manufactured issue

Is ridiculous. She dug herself into a hole that now has spawned into a wierd and difficult situation to dig herself out of. Even the african american community doesn't support her on the whole busing situation.

[ucrdem]

45. Exactly. The chatter after the debate was inane.

They were soooo eager to see blood in the water. Well they saw it but it wasn't Joe's.

[Skya Rhen]

52. I am so proud of Joe for refusing to apologize for things that he is falsely accused of doing.

Takes a lot of character to not fold to pressure...

[ucrdem]

59. He's a pro, no doubt about it.

He took about as many hits as I've seen a pol take after Thursday but you know what? I had a feeling he was going to get the beat-down treatment one way or another and he probably did too. So he put his head down and plowed through. I don't think we'll have to wait long to see who comes out ahead.

[Demsrule86]

61. If someone had told me one of our serious candidates would bring up busing, I would have laughed

in their faces...truth is stranger than fiction.

[Demsrule86]

66. Yeah Busing? Are you kidding Kamala?

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

32. Looks like you may be right... I'm a little surprised by the push back, but, such is politics.

Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[ucrdem]

48. hey thanks

I sure hope so!

[Demsrule86]

67. Indeed...you never know.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

86. So true!! At first, I thought ol' Joe was toast after that exchange over busing... now I'm thinkin'

it may be Kamala who's toast... guess time will tell.

Continued good luck to your candidate.


Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[Demsrule86]

149. And to yours whom I believe has a better chance to win the rust belt than Harris.

[gldstwmn]

114. They sure are:

https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us07022019_umfj23.pdf/

After Democratic presidential contenders duked it out over two nights of debates, former Vice
President Joseph Biden hits his lowest number yet in the Democratic primary race with 22
percent of the vote among Democrats and Democratic leaners, virtually tied with California Sen.
Kamala Harris who has 20 percent of the vote. Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren follows at
14 percent, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is at 13 percent, and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg
gets 4 percent, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University National Poll released
today. No other candidate tops 3 percent.

[ucrdem]

116. A week ago it was Warren, a month ago it was Pete.

Yes, his polling is taking a hit, but that's to be expected. The press was determined to make it a horse race and outdid themselves posting crap about Biden and puff pieces about his rivals. Who all three back Bernie's plan to abolish employer-based insurance. So I don't begrudge Kamala her 15 minutes and hope she enjoys it while it lasts.

[Demsrule86]

117. +1000

[ucrdem]

118. I was going to say "get back to me on Super Tuesday"

but thought it sounded too snarky. So I'll say it to you!

[Demsrule86]

121. Yeah...I love that snark...I know what you mean...I have been just roasted for stating that I think

Biden still wins the primary despite Harris's and the media's best attempts to destroy him...I took MSNBC off my DVR, I was so irritated. It is as if we have no right our opinion...well I did some research on Sen. Harris...posted some of it as you know, I think this is going to be a factor and soon.

[Indygram]

3. Canvassers on the ground tell a far different story

I don't believe the polls. They are nothing but name recognition at this time.

[Demsrule86]

6. I don't agree with that.

Canvassers talk to a limited number of voters...in my area, we only call on Democrats too.

[Indygram]

42. Beto canvassers talk to EVERYONE and in Texas, Beto is beating Trump w/moderate Republicans

No support for Biden at all.

This comes from someone who canvasses every weekend, all weekend. She used to be a Republican.

Future First Family
:large

[Demsrule86]

69. I like Beto and had high hopes for him, but he is not winning the polls...and he lost in Texas in 18

I also don't buy that canvassing is a good way to determine support and I have spent many hours canvassing.

[onetexan]

78. Don't agree w/ the no support for Biden statement. I'm in Tx, and i know plenty of people who do

Much as i love Beto, i do think he is one of the younguns who would make great VEEP candidates. I wholeheartedly support Beto for VEEP as well as a senate seat (run against Cornyn), OR an appointed role in Biden's administration.

[Demsrule86]

96. I agree with that.

[Cha]

110. Gracias for speaking up for Biden in Texas,

onetexan!

[gldstwmn]

107. That's a great photo. We can take Texas this time I think.

[SunsetDreams2]

4. It's too early to predict

No one is inevitable. We are going to have a fight on our hands no matter who the nominee is.

[Demsrule86]

11. I am hoping Biden emerges on super Tuesday...we don't need a drawn out battle...we need to

beat Trump.

[Honeycombe8]

5. I support Pete, for the time being.

He would be the best President, IMO. But I recognize he's not likely to get the nomination, and that the most likely are Biden, Warren, or Harris.

Because of the recent turn of events vis a vis Harris vs. Biden, I have turned my eyes toward Biden and Warren, neither of whom I like much for various reasons. But if those are the choices, I'll keep my eyes on those two. I'm a standard liberal, I think, on the politcal spectrum.

[Demsrule86]

15. I like Pete...I hope he works on repairing his problems with the AA community. He is very

talented.

[Honeycombe8]

19. They're not going to go for him.

It's pointless. There is a bigger religious factor w/that demographic, and they simply aren't going to go for a gay person. MAYBE if he were a racial hero of some sort, like Biden is viewed as, but Pete is not that.

Maybe he can run for governor of IN.

[Demsrule86]

23. Yeah, you are right...I have seen some truly ugly things on twitter...you Know my daughter is Gay...

and folks who think that everything is just peachy these days are wrong...I live in Ohio and could tell you horrifying stories...rights are being taken from LGBTQ everyday ( there is little protection is housing or at the workplace in many states) and there is a 16 % drop in support for gay marriage...this fight is not over. I fear for my daughter's safety should Trump win...we are seriously considering sending her to Ireland as we have the right of return should Trump win. We may all go...who knows?

[Honeycombe8]

34. I didn't know it was that bad.

I really don't even understand it. ??? But there it is.

[Demsrule86]

43. I don't get it either...Hud has put an anti-gay policy in place...right wing thugs

showed up at my daughters college unity meeting...with guns and signs talking about how Gay's should be executed and will roast in hell... Parent stood up when the college failed by showing up with cameras...which was very effective. Her Unity group has been disbanded as they could not get a faculty advisor...one actually said it was bad for her resume...we had some bottle throwing at the house my daughter and her girlfriend live in (we own the house), but the Police officer across the street actually caught one of them. He is a good guy...We have had LGBTQ murdered in Ohio in recent days. While I agree things are better than five years ago or 20 years ago...they are not great. Now with Trump's new rules about being able to refuse treatment of some folks based on your moral or religious beliefs...my daughter could actually be allowed to die should she get sick or be injured...pretty bad trend. We fear for her safety.

[marlakay]

93. I feel same way

Liz is next then Kamala.

But I of course will vote for any of them.

[Honeycombe8]

171. You think Warren could beat Trump?

I must admit I've been surprised by her campaign. I didn't like her at all before. Her voice grates on my nerves. But when I get past the voice, she is so well informed and determined...and she smiles sometimes. I like candidates who know how to smile & joke. It shows confidence and a good sense of humor.

[marlakay]

186. I have watched her and liked her a long time

Since Jon Stewart had her on daily show way way back before she thought of running for senator. I think it might have been her first time on tv and she was nervous then. She has come a long way but always very very smart.

[katmondoo]

161. His time will come, he is still young

[Honeycombe8]

172. True. If he can make Governor, it's a hop, skip & a jump to the Presidency. nt

[Kahuna7]

9. I know. 43%, 30% over the next highest, Bernie at 13%...So...

this doesn't really jibe with the support where Biden is only polling at 22%. Are respondents saying they want to lose? No. That's not it either. The same respondents say they want a nominee who can beat trump rather than one they agree with on the issues.

[Demsrule86]

12. This is why I think Harris's numbers are temporary.

[Kahuna7]

14. A sugar high. nt

[Demsrule86]

16. That is a great way to put it...hehe

[Kahuna7]

18. Hello...

I'm going to leave my comments as is, so as not to get into a flame war with KHivers. ( )...

[stonecutter357]

10. good let's go Joe !

[Demsrule86]

13. Yep...he is the best candidate to evict Trump the madman wannabe dictator.

[marylandblue]

17. I think that's the poll where 43% of the people thought Biden had the best chance,

which is not at all the same as him actually having the best chance. The same poll showed only 22% of people would actually vote for him. If the majority of people choose Biden over their own actual preference, we would have an "electable" candidate who nobody actually likes and therefore it could depress turnout. Electability is a self-defeating concept.

[Demsrule86]

21. That is not true...and if you think this than only 12% of people will vote for Harris and or Warren.

It means that this is most like a temporary jump for Harris and as more of her baggage comes out...down it goes or maybe she just stays where she is...this support of busing is going to leave mark.

[marylandblue]

40. Well I don't know if it's a temporary or permanent bump and neither do you.

At the moment many more people believe that Biden is electable than actually plan to vote for him, which indicates weak support. Also at the moment, other voters are splitting their votes among many other candidates, not just Warren or Harris. Of course this is likely to change over time, but neither of us can predict which way.

[Demsrule86]

44. Why do some always say this...no one said anyone knows anything for sure...we deal in opinions here

and I stand by mine...Democratic candidates have taken positions on healthcare, reparations, busing and immigration etc which could cause us to lose the general. I think Biden has not done this as much although his support for healthcare for the undocumented will hurt him along with the rest...a gotcha question for sure... I believe for various reasons, it is the right policy but don't run on it for heaven's sake. We are going to lose the general if this continues...we have to consider what is a winning issue and what is not.

[marylandblue]

58. Because you often state your opinions as absolute facts

together with much handwringing and fearmongering.

Also tend to misread or ignore information in the posts you are responding. In this case, you claimed something I said wasn't true. But your response makes no sense, since I posed a hypothetical that logically applies to any case where people vote based on electability rather than actual preference. Nonetheless you sounded absolutely certain I was wrong.

[Demsrule86]

71. I state my opinon same as you ...you take them that way...anything I post unless it is a direct

quote from someone else is my opinion...no more or less...you don't like my opinions. I assume everything I read is an opinion unlessthe poster tells me differenlys or we have quotes...so now you know where I stand.

[marylandblue]

80. You ask why some people point out you don't know something.

I gave you an answer. You can expect people to continue to pointing out your lack of knowledge as long as you couch your opinions as if they were facts with little or no supporting data. If you start off a post with "that's not's true..." most people will expect a fact to follow not an opinion.

[Demsrule86]

83. Ah, Now that is just rude...I don't agree with you so I have a lack of 'knowledge'. whatever.

I have supported my opinion with electoral college maps, Senate maps, polls and other things too...but you are looking for people to agree with you that anyone can't beat Trump. You have ignored completely my posts on the blue wall...and my question how else do we win if we can't rebuild it ? Please note that this post included a CNN poll and was not a vanity post. But since you find my opinions so bo uninformed and bothersome, I will not reply to you anymore.

[marylandblue]

91. Your choice as to responding, but I thought it was clear that

I meant my previous statement that we both lack knowledge of the future, so no offense was intended.

As for your discussion of the blue wall, I did respond on many occasions in the past, but you never answered back so I stopped trying. Everybody agrees we need to win back the blue wall. We can all read the map. I said so.

I questioned the idea that only Biden and nobody else could win these states. In most cases, you provided no support for your opinion at all. None. Sometimes you referred to the fact that you live in Ohio, but that doesn't mean much. How does living in Ohio tell you anything at all about increasing turnout in Milwaukee?

I also questioned the idea that you seemed to believe it doesn't matter any candidate says or does between now and election. You never really responded on this. If Biden does decline in the polls for any reason, where would his voters go? And whoever they go to, why would rust belt voters automatically reject that person ?

[Demsrule86]

97. Fair enough...I always respond but I have missed a few posts that last week or two...

Hubs is recovering from two spinal surgeries...and my sis in law who is handicapped (lives with us) fell last week and broke her leg in four places...she is a large woman and was not particularly mobile to begin with...she may not walk again...which breaks my heart as she is only 66 and a truly lovely person...66 seems pretty young to me these days. I will be 66 one day and it is scary that in one minute your life changes.

DU has been a lifeline...as I was stuck in the house pretty much since January. Hubs is better and has returned to work on the bright side. But I digress...since I obviously missed your posts...allow me to apologize. Have a nice day.

[marylandblue]

142. Sorry you've been going through such a difficult time. I hope everyone gets better.

[Demsrule86]

154. Oh God, it looks like I was asking for sympathy...I wasn't . We all have our crosses to bear...I

just felt bad for not answering you posts; I have missed a number of posts for sure ...and I wanted you to know it was not intentional...God knows I love an argument...

My husband is doing better and is back at work since you were kind enough to ask...it looks like a complete success (two spinal operations)...My sis in law...may never walk again...she was not very mobile before this...couldn't get up and down easily and used a walker even before she fell. They are having trouble with rehabilitation. They told me it may not be possible. She is only 66.

[Thekaspervote]

141. Thx for pointing out the numbers.. it's overlooked!

[Demsrule86]

156. Thanks for your great points!

[emmaverybo]

89. Nobody likes Biden?

[marylandblue]

109. Well it's a hypothetical, and perhaps stated in too extreme terms, so

let me try again

Suppose 55% of all voters and 90% of primary voters prefer Candidate A. But 70% of primary voters believe Candidate B is more likely to win. If primary voters go with the more "electable" rather than the one they actually prefer, they ironically end up choosing a losing candidate.

This sort of thing can happen IRL if primary voters overemphasize early poll data (which can change) or look at factors thought to make a difference, but really don't.

[Hoyt]

20. Christ, sounds like we ought to dredge up some old Dixiecrat who is not quite as abrasive as trump.

Do I need the "sarcasm" thingie.

[Demsrule86]

22. No, I think they are mostly dead...but Biden can win...I know people want to believe, we are so

liberal and all but the country is not liberal...center left at best and when we ran as liberals or were perceived as liberals in what was a centrist veering right country in the 80's, we lost every presidential election ...all of them. We need moderates or we lose and Harris, Warren and the lower tier candidates won't attract the voters we need. Biden can.

[Hoyt]

28. Sorry, I'm not ready to give up and go back. I'll re-evaluate when my primary approaches in March.

If Biden is still best bet to win, I'll likely go with him.

But, I'm not going to ignore this in picking a candidate:

"And the research literature continues to show that minority kids benefit from attending racially and economically integrated schools, sometimes quite significantly."

http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/07/kamala-harriss-call-to-bring-back-busing-is-bold-and-risky.html

Better education solves a lot of the problems in this country.

Maybe, Biden, can work with Harris -- like he worked with segregationists -- and come up with a policy proposal that improves educational opportunities.

[Demsrule86]

46. You pick your battles...this is a losing issue and this is one article also...how will minority kids

fare if Trump is reelected? If I were Biden I would not get involved with Harris, this is a bad issue for us and it is unlikely win over the voters we need...might work in a primary although I don't think it will but there is no appetite for this in the states we need to win.

[Hoyt]

49. The essence of the Democratic Party is equality. eom

[Demsrule86]

72. That is your opinion...and maybe it is even true...but running on equality will not win elections...

Voters want to know how we will improve their lives not ideology. I absolutely believe in equality...and I think beating Trump is the only way we can even begin to acheive it.

[IluvPitties]

24. He would humilliate Trump.

[Demsrule86]

47. Yes he would humiliate Trump.

[Iliyah]

25. Right now, the Democratic Party

reflects The United States of America. Diversity.

Be it religion and social matters, civil rights, rights in general, marriage equality (races, gender), and freedom of speech.

We will prevail.

[Demsrule86]

51. Really, Than why do we not have a good shot at the Senate? Why did moderates win the House back?

We don't even have a path to winning the presidency unless we manage to win back the blue wall...none of the issues you present while worthy will mean anything in a genral...healthcare (ACA with a public option), jobs, manufacturing...etc. We have to run on issues that matter to the electorate not just the most progressive part of the Democratic Party... This is how we lost in the 80's every presidential election by not winning moderate voters.

[marylandblue]

70. This is not the 1980s and Trump is not Reagan.

You can't drive with both hands clutching the rearview mirror.

[Demsrule86]

73. He is like Reagan...he took Obama's former supporters (Reagan Democrats), He ran on completely

different issues than the GOP party ...and the Senate is very telling...we have a very slight chance of winning it...we mount a fifty state strategy including moderates and some issues that maybe you don't like...or we will not win the Senate nor the presidency in 20 or beyond IMHO.

[motorcity]

26. CNN poll almost exactly 4 years ago: Clinton 59%, Trump 34%.

Trying to predict electability this far out is pretty tough. I went to a Biden rally in 2007, supported his presidential campaign and will vote for him if he is the nominee. He has aged a lot since I saw him though, understandably, and is far from campaigner he used to be.

Here is the poll I reference, from June 26-28, 2015:

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2015/images/06/30/trumpbushclinton.pdf

[Iliyah]

31. The election was stolen. I'm glad Pres Carter confirmed that.

[Demsrule86]

54. Well then I guess the ones showing Harris winning the debate should be discarded as well.

[ginnyinWI]

27. I will vote for the Democratic nominee, enthusiastically, whoever it is! n/t

[Demsrule86]

98. Me too.

[in2herbs]

36. In some out of the box thinking: the news the last few days seems to indicate that Trump's

dementia will be so bad by time of the 2020 election that he will not be the R candidate. If the D's are supporting candidate(s) in the primaries based on the fact that the D candidate can beat Trump and say that D candidate is Biden, if the news is true and Trump does not run, the Ds will be reduced to supporting a candidate older than Trump, and even tho Biden has no dementia you can bet his age will be on voters' minds.

Maybe we should be thinking what would the polls reflect right now if Trump was not going to be the R candidate. Who would be at the top of the ticket if the Dems didn't have to elect someone who could beat Trump but instead could elect someone with progressive ideas?

[treestar]

39. I don't think that's a big worry

The Dotard does not have dementia. He is just an idiot.

[highplainsdem]

37. That same poll showed that only Biden and Buttigieg had net favorable ratings when all voters

were asked for their favorable/unfavorable opinions.

http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2019/images/07/01/rel8a.-.democrats.and.healthcare.pdf

Compared to the previous month's poll, the favorable/unfavorable question asked of all voters found that:

Biden slipped from 8% to 5% net favorable.

Buttigieg stayed the same, at 3% net favorable.

Sanders went from 2% net favorable last month to 2% net unfavorable, his first time in the poll with net unfavorable.

Harris is 0% net with 32% favorable and 32% unfavorable. That's improvement for her from 5% net unfavorable last month, but she was between 1 and 4% net favorable in the three polls before that.

Warren has 2% net unfavorable, but she had a worse unfavorable rating last month, though she did have net favorable ratings in 2018 and 2016.

[treestar]

38. If Harris is the nominee the right will use this busing issue against her

I don't think busing is a great issue to have around our necks. She will have to backtrack. Fox will be going on about how she wants to bus your kids to school. Why did she have to bring that up? It just wasn't worth it. She handed the right wing something to use against her in the General that will be very hard to defend.

The right always picks up on these attacks from the primaries and runs with them. And busing is NOT a good issue for general voters. They are not all DUeres, or the left or policy people.

[Calculating]

41. Polls at this point are almost meaningless

Biden hasn't even debated vs Trump and we have NO idea how that would go. I also worry that the Trump campaign has had a ton of time to prepare their smear campaign vs him, similar to what happened vs Hillary.

[smooth64]

53. CNN wants Biden to be the nominee because

They think he's the weakest to go against Trump. Do not be fooled by CNN bull they and the rest of Corporate media want Trump for ratings

[Demsrule86]

55. No they don't...they have been savaging him along with MSNBC.

[Bradshaw3]

62. Headline is inaccurate and misleading

More respondents said they believed Biden had the better chance; poll doesn't show that "Biden has the best chance to beat Trump" as the headline claims. Whether or not he does is very much up to debate, especially this far before the election and we cannot assume, as you do, that another Democrat will have a difficult time beating rump. If Biden has another debate performance like the last one it could be said he would have a hard time winning.

Also, the average voter right now is not that informed about the candidates, certainly less than those here on DU. And guess what, Warren has increased her lead here among the very informed DUers who more than any group I can think of, want to send that asshat in the WH on his way.

[Demsrule86]

74. I consider that nitpicking.

Biden clearly has the best chance against Trump for the win we need...which is three rustbelt states...WI,MI and PA IMHO.

[Bradshaw3]

90. Headline is still misleading

Intrepreting people's opinions in a poll as a fact is misleading and inaccurate. Trying to minimize that does not make it any less so.

[True Dough]

63. Today is July 2, 2019

Let's see what the votes show in about a year from now. Much can change. I saw the other day that Trump was polling around 1 per cent in the Republican primary at this early juncture during his run.

We have the opposite of Trump: a handful of incredibly capable and dignified candidates who can assume the nation's top job in the White House.

[Demsrule86]

75. I would prefer a rockstar like Pres. Obama...I still only see Biden winning the states we need.

[True Dough]

79. That's nice

Other people see other things. What matters is what the majority of Dems envision a year from now.

[Demsrule86]

84. I hope we win in 20...that is my one and only goal.

[True Dough]

92. Is there a single DUer (other than a possible Russian bot or three)

who wouldn't feel the same way?

[Demsrule86]

99. I doubt it...we just have different idea on how we can do this.

[TCJ70]

64. I understand that some people stop considering anything past "BEAT TRUMP" this time around...

...but I want to know about what happens after that. I'm not of the mind that only Biden can win so for me I'll choose based on policy AND polling which shows that most of our candidates have a good shot at winning the GE. Simply winning is not enough for me.

[Demsrule86]

76. Most of our candidates do not have a good chance to beat Trump...that is the problem...oh sure they

could rack up the popular vote maybe, but we need three states to win the electoral college WI, MI and PA...and the positions taken in the primary by many of our candidates will be a huge issue for them in a general in the states we need to win. Biden remains the best person to beat Trump and it won't be easy...those of you who think otherwise are wrong. Trump is going to be tough to beat. When we lost the blue wall, we lost our path to the presidency.

[Bayard]

68. I'm starting to wonder about a Biden/Warren ticket

Could they resolve their differences enough to do that? I only say Biden for prez because he's already been vice-prez. He's not going to play that gig again. Warren is still young enough to be a terrific candidate for the office in 2024.

I think that would be a dynamite, winning ticket. I used to think Biden/Harris, but now--not so much. I'm actually not happy giving up even one vote in the senate.

Biden represents normalcy to most of America. They crave it. They'll vote for it.

[Demsrule86]

77. I like Warren better than Harris...but that is two east coast candidates.

[Bayard]

95. I think Biden can bring in the Midwest

[Demsrule86]

100. That is a good point...he helped Obama win the Mid West in 08 and 12...saw him

speak in Youngstown more than once. I would say particularly in 12, he and Bill Clinton saved Obama's candidacy. I think it is sad the Clinton has somehow been ostracized from our party a more loyal Democrat and more gifted politician is hard to find.

[dawg day]

81. In a year, everything might have changed.

No need to declare the primary election over months before the first primary.

[Demsrule86]

85. No one said it was 'over'.

[Andy823]

88. You do realize

that as the candidates thin out, others who are already beating trump, will see their numbers go up as to being able to win against trump. Bottom line is that the voters will decide who is the best all round candidate is to win and become president. When that happens I will be right there to support them, no matter which Democrat wins that may be.

[Demsrule86]

102. I base my belief on who can win the general on who can win in three states MI, WI and PA...Trump

is going for an electoral college win...I will vote for any Democrat in the general but I think some of the stuff they are running on will hurt them in a general particularly in the rust belt states we need. I remain convinced that Biden has the best chance.

[Gothmog]

94. Joe Biden is the most electable candidate that the Democratic Party has available

[Demsrule86]

106. I agree.

[gldstwmn]

101. 270 to win has our top 8 last I checked beating Orange.

Last edited Tue Jul 2, 2019, 03:42 PM - Edit history (1)

Biden is not the only candidate who can win and I'm getting really tired of this false narrative being spread. You cannot run let alone win a presidential race while in hiding.

[Demsrule86]

104. In what polls? We need to look at state polls...because we don't elect a president directly...who

can win in the rust belt...Biden was born in PA and has a connection. He helped Obama in 08 and in 12. We could win the popular vote and lose the election again if we are not careful. Some candidates have made it really tough by supporting reparations, busing, MFA and other non-voting issue.

[zackymilly]

108. There's more debates coming, and Biden still has time to snatch defeat from victory's jaws. nt

[Demsrule86]

124. I expect he will...the candidates agreed not to attack as I remember...but obviously that is no long

true. He was in a tough spot being the gentleman he is...I for one am glad he didn't attack her...and now she is apparently running on busing...hard to believe.

[world wide wally]

112. Biden gives us the best chance of winning the all important rust belt and possibly Florida

[Demsrule86]

125. If we win Florida Trump is toast...and Biden is the only one tied or up in Florida as I recall.

[gldstwmn]

113. Quinnipiac has Biden at 22% and Harris at 20% in a poll released today.

https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us07022019_umfj23.pdf/

After Democratic presidential contenders duked it out over two nights of debates, former Vice
President Joseph Biden hits his lowest number yet in the Democratic primary race with 22
percent of the vote among Democrats and Democratic leaners, virtually tied with California Sen.
Kamala Harris who has 20 percent of the vote. Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren follows at
14 percent, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is at 13 percent, and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg
gets 4 percent, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University National Poll released
today. No other candidate tops 3 percent.

[Kaleva]

115. But that number doesn't translate to rising poll numbers or strong support.

[Demsrule86]

126. We shall see.

[Eliot Rosewater]

127. More polls causing more division among Democrats. My thread of the same title should be

pinned here somewhere.

[Renew Deal]

153. Today

[gldstwmn]

166. Huh. I clicked your link and here's what it actually says:

Tldr: Harris gets big debate bounce, while Biden's lead dwindles
Our new CNN/SSRS poll shows movement in the Democratic race after last week's debate. Following a weak performance in last week's debate, Joe Biden has dropped 10 points from 32% in late May to 22% now. Following a strong performance, Kamala Harris has jumped from 8% in late May to 17% now.

Coming in third place is Elizabeth Warren at 15%. Just behind her is Bernie Sanders at 14%.

No other candidate polled above 5%, including big fundraiser Pete Buttigieg, who rang in with just 4%.

Here are a few other takeaways from the poll:

Harris has seen a significant jump among black voters, while Biden has fallen. Biden declined from 49% in a combined sample of our April and May polls to just 36% now. Harris rose from 6% to 24% in the same period.
Only 8 of the 24 candidates (those listed above) and Cory Booker, Amy Klobuchar and Beto O'Rourke received the 2% necessary to use this as a qualifying poll towards the September debates.
A clear plurality of Democratic primary voters and Harris supporters prefer keeping private insurance as a competitor to a government run system than eliminating it.
Biden is still listed as the most likely to beat Trump at 43%, though that is down over 10 points from a Quinnipiac poll in late April.
Only 10% of Democratic voters think Harris is best Democrat on the climate crisis, and only 6% think she is best on the economy or health care, which suggests a potential weakness in her candidacy.

[Demsrule86]

188. I used quotations as well ...and Biden still leads in AA vote...wait until AG and DA history comes

out...probably during the next debate.

[pansypoo53219]

169. or they are massaging the sheeple like in 2016. they wanted hillary vs trump, but it looked like she

would win easy. so the teevee gnewz made it a 'fair' figh†. of course, trump would be better for the ratings.....

[Cha]

184. We'll see if her debate performance

has staying power.

[Cha]

190. Thanks, Dems!

[ecstatic]

191. Brutally honest: Kamala is an excellent prosecutor. Politician? Not so much

and that's why my support for her wavers at times. She's never really clear in her answers on the touchy issues. She says different things to different audiences. Still, after the debates, I'm equally concerned about Biden's future. Right now, I think the most electable are Cory Booker, DeBlasio, and Bullock. None of them gets my vote in the primaries, but I think they're the most electable of the bunch at this time.