Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumDoes Iowa still matter?
or New Hampshire? I know a win in one of both of the 2 early states can mean a boost for a candidate, but in the long run, do they matter, since subsequent primaries and caucuses are very different demographics.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Sneederbunk
(14,289 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
nsd
(2,406 posts)1. They come first. Anyone who wins one or both is marked as a winner and a serious contender. Obama's win in Iowa in 2008 was ENORMOUSLY important -- he might not have won South Carolina without it.
2. Both are swing states. Doing well in California, despite its varied demographics, isn't a great indicator of general election success. Doing well in Iowa -- again, think Obama in 2008 -- is.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
NastyRiffraff
(12,448 posts)I forgot about Iowa being a swing state; I always think white rural conservative.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
LonePirate
(13,414 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
LonePirate
(13,414 posts)If Iowa were not the first state to vote, it would mean almost nothing because it is an old, white, rural state that looks nothing like the current Democratic Party. We would be better off if we ignored Iowa completely.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
nsd
(2,406 posts)Only Kerry in 2004 (by less than 1%) and Clinton in 2016 lost it. Even Dukakis won the state in 1988. How is Iowa is not a swing state or a good target for a Democratic candidate?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
LonePirate
(13,414 posts)Swing states are decided by a small number of points, typically 5 or less. The 2016 election proved that CO, IA, OH and VA are no longer swing states.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
nsd
(2,406 posts)The particulars of that election -- Russian interference, Comey letter, etc. -- mean nothing in your estimation? That's what we should go with?
Just take Iowa, Barack Obama won by 9 points in 2008 and by nearly 6 points in 2012 (enough to make it "non-swing state" by your criterion). But you're willing to give it up just because of Clinton's performance?
That doesn't make sense.
ETA: In 2012, Obama won PA, MI, and WI by more than 5 points each. (His margin in MI was nearly 10 points). Should we have assumed in 2012 that these were no longer swing states and could be assumed safely Democratic? Some people did and, as I recall, that didn't work out too well. One election doesn't mean anything.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
LonePirate
(13,414 posts)The governor and both Senators are Republican.
Both chambers of the state legislature are Republican (the State Senate easily so) after the blue wave election in 2018.
As mentioned above, the state is whiter, older and more rural than the national average, let alone the average of core blue states.
Iowa is not a swing state. It should not be the first in the nation to vote during primary season. The eventual Dem nominee should not spend one second or one dollar in the state once the primary is over because it is a safely red state in November 2020.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Honeycombe8
(37,648 posts)I can't think of any, but I'm sure there are some.
I wish it wouldn't be Iowa, because I think those caucuses skew things.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Gothmog
(145,086 posts)Neither state represents the demographics of the party. I tend to think that the South Carolina primary better represents the demographics of the party followed by the Super Tuesday primaries
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
NastyRiffraff
(12,448 posts)Still, it seems they do give a boost to whoever wins. nsd made some good points about Obama's win in Iowa and being swing states.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
SidDithers
(44,228 posts)Sid
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Gothmog
(145,086 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
SidDithers
(44,228 posts)Sid
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
wyldwolf
(43,867 posts)Especially Iowa.
Majority white states with majority white voters setting the voting trends for the rest of the country.
I think SC should have their primary on the same day Iowa does.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Turin_C3PO
(13,952 posts)Why not?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
wyldwolf
(43,867 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Turin_C3PO
(13,952 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
NastyRiffraff
(12,448 posts)but Iowa & New Hampshire fight like Mama Bear protecting her cubs when they're "first" statuses are threatened.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
wyldwolf
(43,867 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Chitown Kev
(2,197 posts)Now that Harris is doing much better in Iowa, I could see black voters using Iowa to vet black candidates...and the same could apply to any other minority, I guess...so...maybe
To me, Iowa was more of a bellweather to Obama than it should be to Harris because Obama is from the region and some Iowa voters (in the Quad Cities region) already knew and liked Obama...if Harris finishes strong in Iowa...
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
George II
(67,782 posts)...greatly diminished. I never could understand why it gets all the play that it does in the media. Iowa's delegates are only 1.1% of all the pledged delegates.
By Super Tuesday, more than 1/3 (36%) of all pledged delegates will have been chosen. March 3 is 35 times more important than February 3.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Gothmog
(145,086 posts)I have heard that one of the counties will have a war room for voter protection up and operating
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
customerserviceguy
(25,183 posts)and especially joining clumps like Super Tuesday, maybe not. But, funding is more important than ever, since a candidate needs to run ads on TV, on billboards, on radio and now on the Internet, and doing at least OK in Iowa and New Hampshire gives a candidate a chance to keep the money spigot flowing.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
brooklynite
(94,490 posts)Doesnt matter if the Democrats there are reflective of the national Party. What it does is it provides an opportunity for lesser known candidates to show their capabilities through one-on-one campaigning with voters. Conversely, it shows the ability of a campaign team to turn out voters through something other than high cost advertising (see: Howard Dean)
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden