Poll: Disappointed if they become the Nominee

[bluewater]

Last edited Wed Jul 10, 2019, 05:57 PM - Edit history (4)

The Economist/YouGov Poll July 7 - 9, 2019 - 1500 US Adult citizens

Table #44. Disappointed if Democratic nominee

Are there any presidential candidates that you would be disappointed if they became the Democratic nominee?

Bernie Sanders 19%
Joe Biden 18%
Beto O’Rourke 14%
Kamala Harris 10%
Pete Buttigieg 9%
Julian Castro 7%
Elizabeth Warren 7%

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/al25duedar/econTabReport.pdf
(Look for table #44 at the link.)

The frontrunner, Joe Biden has a "disappointed if they became the nominee" polling of 18%, which was second highest behind Bernie Sanders at 19% among top tier candidates.

Elizabeth Warren was tied with Julian Castro at 7% for the lowest disappointment result.

So, ~18% would be disappointed if either Biden or Sanders became the nominee in 2020. What does that tell us? Are they the most polarizing candidates?

Someone might win the nomination, but also be polarizing and demotivating to 1 out of 5 Democrats!
Such a nominee would not be our best bet to win the General Election in 2020.

A consensus candidate, the person that can bring both the moderate and progressive wings of the party behind them, would be - in my opinion - "the most electable" candidate in 2020.

This poll indicates that Elizabeth Warren is our best bet to find such a consensus candidate. It's one major reason why I support her in the primaries.

[Dennis Donovan]

1. How about a link back to the Economist instead of the cloudfront link?

Anyone can upload anything to cloudfront.

[HerbChestnut]

2. Here you go.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/al25duedar/econTabReport.pdf

[Dennis Donovan]

4. That's not a link to the Economist

You copied the OP's link.

[HerbChestnut]

5. Link came from Real Clear Politics.

Maybe OP found the same one?

[bluewater]

3. clicking on the RCP Polls poll name : Economist/YouGov, that is the link it goes to

At RCP polls, when you click on the poll name, this is the link it goes to. So I think its legit.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

It's also the link that DUer highplainsdem gave me to correct a RCP Polls summary error, so they think it's legit too.

Did you miss this post by highplainsdem that shows RCP using the same link to another sub-table in the Poll results?

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287197131

I hope that addresses your concern.

[Dennis Donovan]

7. Clicking your link brings me to cloudfront...

...not The Economist.

[bluewater]

10. It's not my link, its RealClearPolitics' Link

Goto RCP Polls

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

Now click on the poll name.

It brings you there.

I hope that addresses your concerns.

[highplainsdem]

9. I got the link I posted from the article about this at The Hill:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/452414-poll-biden-leads-2020-democratic-field-by-5-points-followed-by-warren-and

[bluewater]

11. highplains dem, you gave me the cloudfront link that RCP leads to.

You posted this to me:

highplainsdem (20,949 posts)
16. 5 point lead. Warren at 17%, not 18%. Link to PDF file of the poll:

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/al25duedar/econTabReport.pdf


See page 149 for first choice among Democratic primary candidates.


here is a link to your post showing that:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1287&pid=197123

RCP goes directly to that link too. So what is the issue exactly? Does anyone think RCP linked to an inaccurate page about the polls internals?

[highplainsdem]

13. ???? I'm not objecting to how you found your link, or saying it's different from mine. I was just

explaining where I found the link. I hadn't clicked on the RCP link before I posted about this.

[bluewater]

17. I was unclear on that. Thanks.

I was also speaking to the other person that raised a question about the link, saying anyone could post to cloudfront.

I mentioned you because you gave me that link to cloudfront, which is also the link RCP gives directly, and to stress that I consider both you and RCP to be reputable sources on this link.

Sorry, I should have worded my reply more clearly. I know you have no problem with the link, I didn't mean to imply that you did.

[KPN]

14. Here you go. You have to click on the June 30-July 2 poll (Economist Tables July 1 2019).

[link:https://today.yougov.com/topics/economist/survey-results|

The poll surveyed 1500 US Adults but did not ask or report on the Democratic nominee disappointment question for registered Republicans.

Interestingly, Biden has the highest disappointment rate among Independents, Warren the lowest. Also, among races blacks had the greatest percentage who would not be disappointed if any ofthe current candidates were nominated.

Some interesting results in this survey data. Have a look.

[Honeycombe8]

6. I think that partly indicates unknown candidates. Castro has the lowest...

at 7%. Or ties. Now, come on....most people don't know who he is, even. So they picked someone they KNEW they didn't like.

This poll only applies to the frontrunners, I think. People who are nationally known. That's probably only Biden & Sanders at this point.

[HerbChestnut]

8. That's probably fair.

Also, when candidates become front runners they tend to get piled on by media organizations and rival campaigns. That typically lowers their favorables and would increase the number of people who would be disappointed if they were the nominee. This type of poll will be more useful in December and January.

[highplainsdem]

16. Agree completely. This poll number mostly indicates how disappointed the supporters of the two

candidates who've been the top two candidates in most polls for months would be if their favorite's top rival became the nominee.

That question also showed a plurality wouldn't be disappointed by ANY of the nominees.

[bluewater]

20. The polls indicates that Warren is our best bet for a consensus candidate

If people are concerned about uniting the party behind the person who can bring both the moderate and progressive wings together, this poll indicates that Warren might be our best bet.

At 7%, she has the lowest "disappointed if she's the nominee" polling of any of the top tier candidates.

[highplainsdem]

21. We won't need to worry about a "consensus candidate" unless we have a brokered convention.

And if we end up with a brokered convention we're going to have all sorts of problems, and I can promise you that any candidate put forward as an ostensible consensus candidate will disappoint a lot more than 7% of Democrats.

[bluewater]

22. A consensus candidate is a unifying personality that can get out the largest vote in 2020.

The term "consensus candidate" is in no way limited to brokered conventions.

A consensus candidate is the person that can not only WIN the nomination, but also united all Democrats behind them, and get them to turn out and vote in 2020.

Someone might win the nomination, but also be polarizing and demotivating to segments of the Democratic base. Such a nominee would not be our best bet to win the General Election in 2020.

A consensus candidate, the person that can bring both the moderate and progressive wings of the party behind them, would be - in my opinion - "the most electable" candidate in 2020.

This poll indicates that Elizabeth Warren is our best bet to find such a consensus candidate. It's one major reason why I support her in the primaries.

[highplainsdem]

30. The polls so far indicate she doesn't have nearly as good a chance of beating Trump as Biden has.

I voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016. I also supported her in the 2008 primaries. I don't consider Warren as strong a candidate as Clinton was, and her resume definitely isn't as impressive. I also considered Hillary more likable, and whether or not DUers ever want to hear that word, people do often vote for the candidate they like.

I've just never viewed Warren as presidential or a national leader. Great policy wonk, yes.

And I will of course vote for her if she's the nominee.

[Honeycombe8]

25. I don't think she's nationally known that much, yet. That's why she's at 7%.

People looking at the list would zero in on the ones they know, and of those two or three, the one they disagree w/the most.

She's well known to most Democrats, but this is a poll of 1,500 random adults.

I have an independent relative who knows what she looks like and that she's who Trump calls Pocahontas. That's all he knows.

[bluewater]

26. John Delaney is at 17% and Marianne williamson is at 27% disappointed if they're nominated.

So, no, I don't think Warren is at 7% because she isn't as well known as the rest of the field.

Only 7% of those polled (the lowest percentage for all 20+ candidates) would feel disappointed if Warren gets the nomination because people like her and she is the least polarizing in her positions.

[Honeycombe8]

28. Then the poll doesn't mean much, hate to say.

Because Biden and Harris consistently poll as beating Trump lately, while Warren is in a dead heat w/him (not beating him).

So the numbers don't make sense.

Whatever. It's early yet. It's an odd thing to ask "which one would you be most disappointed with?" Because everyone will likely say someone who is not the candidate he supports...so that would be at least 10 others he'd be disappointed with.

And only 7% mention Castro...who most people in the nation don't know, and of those who do, don't know much about him. He doesn't have a national presence yet.

[zipplewrath]

18. Probably an inverted bell curve

A front runner is likely to have alot of people that don't wanna see them succeed.
The less well known one is, the less opposition one might have.
Somewhere they might vaguely know but think you're just too new or inexperienced, so then your negatives start to go up again. Some far outlier with 0.1% support might be well known to the highly engaged and they really don't want that person to be the nominee.

[Honeycombe8]

29. It's an odd question. Because a person is likely to be disappointed with multiple ones....

those who are not the candidate a person supports. And of those who aren't his candidate, there are most likely multiple ones they'd be disappointed in getting the nomination.

It's an odd question that is irrelevant, I think.

[zipplewrath]

31. It is odd

It's usefulness is mostly in adjusting perception. To have 30% support and be "leading" is also to have 70% that would prefer someone else. To a candidate the information would be useful in the sense of whether they have a chance of "winning over" voters. If there is a large percentage that DON'T want to see you as the candidate, you have a real problem.

It is a variation of the "favorable/unfavorable" poll question. It's good to have a high favorability number. It is as important to NOT have a high unfavorable too.

[Honeycombe8]

32. This is a more irrelevant question than "unfavorability."

Because THIS question is about over 20 candidates, MANY OF WHOM A LOT OF PEOPLE DON'T EVEN KNOW. So asking a person to choose one among 20+, without filtering out those the person doesn't know anything about, is TOTALLY meaningless.

Unlike asking a person how he views ONE particular candidate: Favorable, Unfavorable, Not Sure. (Now THAT's a relevant question.)

[DownriverDem]

23. My Focus

Personally, I want Biden. I still say a strong progressive Dem woman running as VP would be a formidable ticket. We have never had a woman VP. She would be in a national position and aligned to be President. Folks see Biden as someone who has both the experience in Congress and the White House. Winning the Electoral College and beating trump is all that matters. This is my focus.

[wyldwolf]

12. "Is Elizabeth Warren our best bet for a consensus candidate?"

In the highly unlikely scenario of a brokered convention?

[LanternWaste]

15. I'd guess name recognition is still a thing. Even in the negative.

"What does that tell us?"

Tells me that name recognition is still a thing. Even in the negative. Difficult to be disappointed in someone who doesn't exist.

(that is, if Name Recognition is still being used as the excuse d'jour for poor polling)

[at140]

19. Don't know if Warren is best concensus

But she is definitely the most knowledgeable about finance, banking, Wall Street issues. Why is that so important at this time? Because we are headed towards even bigger financial crisis than 2008-2009 one. Unless that crisis is avoided, people are going to lose jobs, homes, and pensions.

[zentrum]

24. I've heard that

Last edited Wed Jul 10, 2019, 05:23 PM - Edit history (1)

....people walk into one of Warren's rallies interested and they walk out excited and energized.

They walk into one of Bernie's the same in or out. They got just what they expected.

And they go into a Biden rally interested and a little excited and walk out flat.

[OKNancy]

27. I'd be disappointed if our candidate was one who I thought couldn't win

One who couldn't win the electoral college. One who didn't have good support with the African-American community, or have a geographical advantage. Also one who could be easily be labeled a socialist because it's been shown that label is a real loser.

[Tarc]

33. That over half would be disappointed in a white male is telling.