Warren's base are Hillary supporters?

[crazytown]

It occurred to me. looking through the polls, that the demographic that most strongly supports Elizabeth Warren - older white college educated women, is the same group that identified most strongly with Hillary in 2008, and 2016. By way of contrast, Bernie's base is young non college graduate men. This is not Tump's base, by the way, which skews strongly towards older voters.

Sanders and Warren voters have astonishingly little in common
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/07/12/sanders-warren-voters-2020-1408548

Elizabeth, like Hillary, is a policy wonk with a strong commitment to women's issues. Warrens signature wealth tax is tied to universal childcare, pre-k, tuition free public college and student loan forgiveness. She may not wear her feminism on her sleeve, but Warren lives it. After town halls she is known for telling little girls "I am running for to be president because that's what girl's do".

And there's one more thing. Warren is a party loyalist. Despite a long friendship with Bernie Sanders that began before she entered politics, she announced for Hillary as soon as Sanders' path to the nomination became mathematically impossible. At the DNC Convention Warren was seated next to Chelsea Clinton, applauding Bill as enthusiastically as anyone else.

If this reasoning is correct, there is a huge divide between Sanders and Warren's candidacies, whatever their policy similarities. If Elizabeth's campaign falters, her base won't be feeling the bern.

[JI7]

1. Hillary's Base was Black Voters and other Racial Minorities and LGBT .

Warren is not really doing well with these groups. white college women supported HIllary more compared to some other white groups but minorities were her biggest supporters.

[crazytown]

2. Hillary inherited Obama's base

in the same way Joe has today, but has/had her own separate following. By way of contrast, Biden's personal base is small.

[JI7]

3. no, Hillary had Black voters before Obama had them. and HIllary had other minorities even against

Obama and kept them in 2016.

[crazytown]

4. Black voters had transferred to Obama by the South Carolina primary.

Hillary got 40% of the vote from then on ... they were her people.

[JI7]

5. my point is her support from black voters did not come from Obama

since they were with her until Obama won them over and showed he could be electable by winning Iowa.

[crazytown]

6. No - wasn't thinking that. The Clintons have always been friends of African Americans

but Obama made them his own.

Let's do a thought experiment - Suppose Obama & Hillary were in this race, Barak would win by a country mile, daylight second. Joe and Hillary would get next to no black votes, and might keep some LGBT voters, but Hillary would still have a base of white educated feminist women who would support her. And the point I was trying to make is this group will not be supporting Bernie anytime soon.

[JI7]

7. lol, that doesn't make sense. that's like saying if Hillary was running right now and those women

supported her over warren it means that they really aren't warren's base.


for example , Governor Bullock has little to no support right now. but his base would be older moderate type white men but right now they are with Biden . it just means there are candidates who often have the same base.

[crazytown]

8. I said older white college educated women are Warren's base

I stand by that. If you want to argue that that demographic were not Hillary's base, or the backbone of Hillary's base, so be it. We can agree to disagree. If you also believe that that demographic would flock to the Sanders banner, you are free mount that argument.

[JI7]

9. Clinton's support was stronger among other groups

[crazytown]

10. The title of the OP was Warren's base are Hillary supporters?

Not Hillary's base are Warren supporters?

EDIT: I am personally protective and respectful of Hillary's reputation and legacy. She is not a natural politician - she did not come alive amongst crowds, did not enjoy the cut and thrust of the media game, - but the people who know she say she is dazzling behind closed doors. The way I've always thought of it is HRC was under Benghazi Committee scrutiny from the day she said she was not going to sit around baking cookies. Her every word and move was x-rayed for signs of missteps or grist for GOP propoganda. She became very cautious, understandably so, but it meant you had to look closely, to pay attention, to see that she was just about everything you could want in a President of the Republic.

[JI7]

11. ok, i read the OP more carefully and i understand what you were saying. i thought you were

talking about Warren's chances to win the Primary based on this.

but yes, people assume Warren and Sanders have the same supporters but they don't . i think Warren's support is more comparable to someone like Buttigieg than Sanders since Buttigieg's support tends to be higher educated white people.

[crazytown]

12. Something I wrote above

EDIT: I am personally protective and respectful of Hillary's reputation and legacy. She is not a natural politician - she did not come alive amongst crowds, did not enjoy the cut and thrust of the media game, - but the people who know she say she is dazzling behind closed doors. The way I've always thought of it is HRC was under Benghazi Committee scrutiny from the day she said she was not going to sit around baking cookies. Her every word and move was x-rayed for signs of missteps or grist for GOP propoganda. She became very cautious, understandably so, but it meant you had to look closely, to pay attention, to see that she was just about all you could want in a President of the Republic.

[Recursion]

13. I don't think we have good enough polling yet to say that

These things will solidify more in the winter

[thesquanderer]

14. I think that Biden's base are ALSO largely Hillary supporters.

People who wanted the tried and true, proven, experienced, mainstream, not-too-left, and dare I say it, "establishment" candidate gravitated to Hillary last time, and I see them gravitating to Joe this time.

However, that portion of the Hillary base who supported her in large part because she was a woman will be tempted to look elsewhere. The women to choose from this time are Warren, Harris, Klobuchar, Gabbard, Gillibrand, and Williamson. Of those, Warren has generally been seen as the one with the best shot to actually win, which may lead her to draw more "we have to elect a woman" supporters than the others, among other reasons.

I actually see Klobuchar as the most Hillary-like of the bunch, in policy positioning and sense of pragmatism. OTOH, Clinton and Gillibrand have some well known bad blood between them, and Clinton and Williamson are on opposite ends of the touchy-feely spectrum, so they would be tougher sells.

[crazytown]

15. I would say Biden's base is largely Obama's base.

What I was trying to talk about in the OP was that the demographic that most strongly supports Warren - older white college educated woman, is unlike to cross over to support Sanders should Elizabeth's campaign falter, however similar their policies may be. The bad blood between HRC and Sanders is likely to have left an indelible impression with those women voters.

What I see in Klobuchar is the sort of sensible shoes caution of Hillary's campaign before Trump became the presumptive nominee. After that Hillary became bolder ... proposing Medicare for everyone over 55 for example. Hillary was always more liberal than her husband. If those on the left had being paying attention, they could have learnt something.