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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!

Sun Aug 18, 2019, 11:15 AM

 

"Above all, the mistaken belief that Democrats won in 2018 by gaining Republican support..."

Worth reading: https://www.salon.com/2019/08/17/this-political-scientist-completely-nailed-the-2018-blue-wave-heres-her-2020-forecast/

This hampers efforts to counter Donald Trumpís destructive impact on a daily basis, and spreads confusion about both Democratic prospects and strategy in the 2020 election prospects. Above all, the mistaken belief that Democrats won in 2018 by gaining Republican support (aka winning back 'Trump voters') fuels an illusory search for an ill-defined middle ground that could actually demobilize the Democratic leaners and voters who actually drove last year's blue wave.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Reply "Above all, the mistaken belief that Democrats won in 2018 by gaining Republican support..." (Original post)
Garrett78 Aug 2019 OP
TwilightZone Aug 2019 #1
Garrett78 Aug 2019 #3
TwilightZone Aug 2019 #6
Garrett78 Aug 2019 #8
onecaliberal Aug 2019 #2
lark Aug 2019 #4
Garrett78 Aug 2019 #5
lark Aug 2019 #9
brooklynite Aug 2019 #14
Garrett78 Aug 2019 #16
Beartracks Aug 2019 #7
brooklynite Aug 2019 #15
ucrdem Aug 2019 #10
LongtimeAZDem Aug 2019 #11
Thekaspervote Aug 2019 #12
in2herbs Aug 2019 #13
Garrett78 Aug 2019 #18
LongtimeAZDem Aug 2019 #19
SharonClark Aug 2019 #17
Demsrule86 Aug 2019 #20
ucrdem Aug 2019 #21

Response to Garrett78 (Original post)

Sun Aug 18, 2019, 11:22 AM

1. Salon propped up Jill Stein and spent the cycle bashing Clinton.

 

Pardon me if I take what they write with a massive pile of salt.

Besides, I don't know of anyone who says we won by gaining Republican support. We won by getting Dem turnout up and by appealing to independents, as well as Democrats.

We won in 2018 because we ran on issues that are important to *everyone*, not just people we like and not just Democrats or those on the left. Issues-based campaigns won in 2018 and they can win again in 2020.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to TwilightZone (Reply #1)

Sun Aug 18, 2019, 11:25 AM

3. Regardless of your thoughts on the messenger, the message is worth reading.

 

And the message is being expressed by the person being interviewed by Salon, not Salon itself.

Also, many times before I've posted articles about the myths about so-called "independents." Studies have made clear that "independents" tend to be highly partisan. They aren't "middle-of-the-road" voters as many people mistakenly assume.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Garrett78 (Reply #3)

Sun Aug 18, 2019, 11:37 AM

6. The assertion about Republicans is the author's, not that of the person being interviewed.

 

It's also nonsense. No one is claiming we won because of Republican support or that of Trump voters.

He also conflates Republicans with "middle ground". The terms are not remotely interchangeable. Targeting independents and moderates (or everyone, for that matter) is not the same thing as targeting Republicans.

Just because independents tend to be partisan doesn't mean we shouldn't try to appeal to them. Alienate them and we lose. Simple math.

Screw everyone to the right of me is not a winning strategy.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to TwilightZone (Reply #6)

Sun Aug 18, 2019, 11:42 AM

8. You're missing the point.

 

The vast majority of "independents" are just as set in their ways as those who identify with a party. In fact, studies have shown that today's "independents" are more partisan than the average party-affiliated voter was a few decades ago. They simply like calling themselves "independent" for any number of reasons. It isn't because they're on the fence and ripe for the picking.

Many people have suggested that the key to winning in 2020 is winning over Trump voters.

This is a quote from the person being interviewed:

The explanation, of course, is that it was this giant turnout of core constituencies, that either are Democrats or favor Democrats ó theyíre independents who favor Democrats ó and they have a huge turnout explosion. So it's not the same pool of voters changing their minds and voting Democrat after voting Republican because of the issue of health care. It's a whole different pool of voters.

They might have many reasons that they cite, and probably this is not the reason they would cite. But what made them enraged and show up is Trump Inc., the negative partisanship. I don't know why Nancy Pelosi, the DCCC or many of these moderate members are convinced that moderate Republicans crossed over and voted for them. I have the data for some of these districts and the data tells a very different, very clear story: If Republicans voted in huge numbers, they voted for Republicans.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Garrett78 (Original post)

Sun Aug 18, 2019, 11:24 AM

2. If anyone thinks republicans are going to vote for a dem, I've got a bridge...

 

We ARE in the majority. Itís time to start doing things Main Street Americans desperately need to be done.
If I were to vote in a presidential
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Response to Garrett78 (Original post)

Sun Aug 18, 2019, 11:26 AM

4. I mde lots of calls and knocked on many doors for the FL Democratic party in 2018.

 

I didn't get one drumpf voter who said they had changed their minds, not one. Ii did get some peeps who said they were Republicans and hung up on me. I did talk to some Independents who either hadn't voted in 2016 or who actually voted for drumpf and were contrite. Every one of them said they'd vote Democrat as long as drumpf was in office and vote Democrat at every level to deny him support. True trumpers are racist haters, Nazis, KKK, White nationalists, totally ignorant, criminals, fascist oligarchs or some combination of these and they won't be moved. t's the people who were somewhat ignorant, not full on reich wingers, but took a chance that might be able to be moved.
If I were to vote in a presidential
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Joe Biden

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Response to lark (Reply #4)

Sun Aug 18, 2019, 11:31 AM

5. And the people who might be moved are few and far between. A campaign can't be run based on...

 

...turning out the sporadic "buyer's remorse" voter. The campaign must be focused, primarily, on turning out the base in greater numbers than we saw in 2016. Unfortunately, Clinton (after a quarter century of ruthless attacks) had become extremely polarizing. And then there was Russia. So, I like our chances in 2020, but we have to get over this notion that winning over more "white males" is the key to victory.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Garrett78 (Reply #5)

Sun Aug 18, 2019, 11:44 AM

9. I agree.

 

We only targeted Dems and non-affiliated but voted Dem in at least one of the last 2 elections at 90 days out and registered and voted Dem in at least one of 2 last elections during the last 45 days. Target Dems, but talk to the others when they appear seems to be the best way to go. Oh, and why in the world would any Democrat target white males who voted for drumpf anyway, that would be stupid, frustrating and a total waste of time. White women with some college is a fertile field, however, with many who did vote for drumpf now sorry for the choice.

I, of course, am a blue dog Dem, regardless of the fact that I'm 67, white, female and some college.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Garrett78 (Reply #5)

Sun Aug 18, 2019, 12:30 PM

14. False...

 

IN Ohio, Hillary Clinton exceeded Barack Obama in safe Blue areas like Cleveland. The reason she lost was that hr votes in the Red Counties was substantially lower than Obama. Nobody expects to win the entirety of Republican voters, but a marginal number of more moderate Republicans van make the difference.

Newly elected Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin (MI-8) told me a story about being asked why she was campaigning in rural Counties, which the previous Democrat had lost by 90%. She replied that her goal was to lose by 70%.
If I were to vote in a presidential
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Joe Biden

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Response to brooklynite (Reply #14)

Sun Aug 18, 2019, 12:37 PM

16. One was new and replacing 8 years of Bush. The other was under attack for 25 years.

 

And was replacing 8 years of a Democratic administration. It's apples and oranges.

And over the 8 years of the Obama presidency, racial resentment welled up to the point of explosion.

Jamelle Bouie wrote a relevant piece about this: https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2016/11/why-did-some-white-obama-voters-for-trump.html
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Garrett78 (Original post)

Sun Aug 18, 2019, 11:37 AM

7. Did Republicans win, ever, by purposely seeking Democratic support?

 

Just curious.

========
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Beartracks (Reply #7)

Sun Aug 18, 2019, 12:31 PM

15. Yes, Ronald Reagan.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
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Response to Garrett78 (Original post)

Sun Aug 18, 2019, 11:46 AM

10. Michigan and Wisconsin have open primaries.

 

As do many other states including NH and SC. And don't forget November 2020.
If I were to vote in a presidential
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Response to Garrett78 (Original post)

Sun Aug 18, 2019, 11:50 AM

11. Except that's exactly how we elected Kirsten Sinema in Arizona

 

The results from traditionally Republican strongholds like Sun City and the county islands went for Sinema by larger than characteristic percentages; health care was the most frequently cited reason.
If I were to vote in a presidential
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Joe Biden

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Response to LongtimeAZDem (Reply #11)

Sun Aug 18, 2019, 12:14 PM

12. Agree!

 

I read the article the OP referenced, some paragraphs twice. She makes some very salient points.. bottom line, one overwhelming take away...when Dems vote in overwhelming numbers Dems win.

Health care is a big issue, so agree letís pound away on that and turn AZ blue
If I were to vote in a presidential
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Joe Biden

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Response to LongtimeAZDem (Reply #11)

Sun Aug 18, 2019, 12:18 PM

13. IMO Sinema is such a lite-democrat she might as well be a Repug. Look at her voting record.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to in2herbs (Reply #13)

Sun Aug 18, 2019, 12:44 PM

18. And there's a world of difference between a statewide race in a red state...

 

...and winning the presidency. Sure, spend some time targeting rural voters in certain states. But the primary focus has to be on turning out the base in larger numbers than we saw in 2016. If you do that, it will have an impact on every state (including the much-discussed PA, MI and WI trio).
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Garrett78 (Reply #18)

Sun Aug 18, 2019, 12:48 PM

19. Of course there's a difference, but the OP specifically talked about 2018

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Garrett78 (Original post)

Sun Aug 18, 2019, 12:38 PM

17. Excellent article and food for thought

 

I posted about this article yesterday and I'm glad Garrett78 has posted about it today.
If I were to vote in a presidential
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Response to Garrett78 (Original post)

Sun Aug 18, 2019, 12:50 PM

20. They did gain Republican votes...which is why 40 moderates won the house...another BS article by

 

Salon I see...they simply won't accept the facts.
If I were to vote in a presidential
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Response to Demsrule86 (Reply #20)

Sun Aug 18, 2019, 01:19 PM

21. +1,000,000

 

The current Salon wins no profiles in courage, that's for sure.
If I were to vote in a presidential
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