The Ground Has Shifted

[peggysue2]

Interesting Op-Ed over at TPM by Josh Marshall. From Marshall's concluding remarks, I think he sees (as I do) a head-to-head primary match ultimately between Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren. This from the beginning of the piece:

For months now I’ve been in a back and forth with readers over what many have wrongly interpreted as support for Joe Biden. That’s not really right. It’s more like Biden Realism, which I’d describe as a focus on Biden’s apparent strengths despite many people’s wish that they weren’t strengths. The primary polls themselves are inherently volatile and heavily driven by perceptions of electability. That’s not the case with general election polls, which focus on voters who by definition don’t care about “electability.” Those polls have been very, very consistent all year. Specifically, Joe Biden is the only Democrat who consistently bests President Trump by big margins. Most of the others are closer to a tie. The exception is Bernie Sanders who has usually been between Biden and the rest of the pack.

Some people claim those numbers mean next to nothing more than a year from the general election. They’re wrong. When one candidate consistently does significantly better, it suggests they pull an electoral coalition that is different and larger than the others. The fact that things can change does not mean they will change or (more importantly) that they will change to conform to your hopes. But something has shifted over the last month.

Biden Realism. I like that. Seems spot on, too.

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/prime/the-2020-dynamic-is-shifting

[AtheistCrusader]

1. I do think it's going to come down to Biden and Warren. Or a joint ticket.

I think who leads the ticket is up in the air at this time.

[Eliot Rosewater]

2. Warren would make a great president. Joe too.

[peggysue2]

4. That's how I see it shaping up as well.

We shall see.

[DownriverDem]

9. Not joint

Biden is our best candidate to win the Electoral College and beat trump. Biden has wide support. trump does not want to run against Biden. I don't see Warren as VP. She is more needed in the Senate and she does that job well. I see Biden running with a strong, progressive, Dem woman. They would make a winning team. Beating trump is all that matters.

[Thekaspervote]

3. Thx for posting! I have always liked josh marshall.. he was always well liked by the Obama WH

[peggysue2]

7. I agree on Marshall

He writes well and is politically astute. As I read the op-ed, I found myself shaking my head. And I can well imagine the readership comments because the community is liberal to very liberal. Biden is gauged--by and large--at the site as being far too moderate and old school. I don't agree with that assessment; I see Biden as a pragmatic liberal. With years of experience, he understands how the legislative system works--its strengths and limitations.

But then, as Marshall states, the reality on the ground is reflected in the polling. It is what it is, aka Biden Reality.

[DownriverDem]

10. Many folks

lean more left than the country on DU. They don't like being told this either. We have to win the Electoral College to beat trump. That means state by state. We have to win the middle voters. I wish those more left would understand how to win elections. You have to win the most votes. You have to appeal to a wide variety of voters. You have to win the middle.

[peggysue2]

14. Absolutely agree, Downriver

[Tarheel_Dem]

5. Nevertheless, the fantasies will persist. Some don't REALLY believe the foolish arguments they...

put forth against Biden, they just like starting a fight. A very wise soothsayer has repeatedly told us "the polls are what the polls are".

[Peacetrain]

6. Peggy we are a two candidate household.. Biden for me.. Warren for hubby

You would think it would be the other way around but we had once talked about how great it would be if they were running mates.. but now I understand that can never happen because of the underlying ageism that has crept into our discord (both over 70).. even on the debate stage.. but so be it.. it is what it is.. but I think that the final will come down to the two of them..

[peggysue2]

8. That is a surprising split

My husband and I are on the same page with our support of Joe Biden. That being said, if Warren were to take the nomination, we'd both vote for her. My only criticism of Warren is that I'm simply not convinced she can take down Donald Trump, that her reach and appeal simply isn't wide enough to pull in the numbers we'll need to clobber the Republicans and fully repudiate Trump and Trumpism.

We shall see!

[Cha]

11. Thank you for this from Josh Marshall, Peggysue!

I see him on twitter standing up for reality a lot.

I'm not surprised by this "Biden Realism" piece.. and very much appreciate it.

For months now I’ve been in a back and forth with readers over what many have wrongly interpreted as support for Joe Biden. That’s not really right. It’s more like Biden Realism, which I’d describe as a focus on Biden’s apparent strengths despite many people’s wish that they weren’t strengths...

Thank you!

[Kahuna7]

12. I have long admired Josh. He's smart, honest and fair. nt

[Cha]

13. So have I, Kahuna!

[peggysue2]

17. Most welcomed, Ma'm

Breath of fresh air, I'd say.

[Cha]

18. Yes, most Refreshing!

[Indykatie]

15. I Subscribe to Several Online News/Political Sites - Josh's TPM is the Best

I believe Josh hold History degrees and I think that infuses his view of life and politics. One which I rarely disagree with. His points here on Biden are spot on. Biden fares very well as the 1st or 2nd choice of the other candidates. That's indicative of his broad appeal within the party.

If you do twitter Josh's a must follow. People who are unfamiliar with his style sometimes miss the keen sense of irony or sarcasm.

[peggysue2]

16. Agreed!

I'm a prime member at TPM because I really enjoy Josh Marshall's slant and knowledgable approach. And the WAR discussions (all things Trump/Mueller related) in The Hive kept me half-way sane over the last 3 years. For the most part the discussions on various topics are lively, well-reasoned and offer a perspective from a variety of backgrounds and points of view.

Good stuff! DU and TPM are my first stops in the morning.

[Cha]

19. KICK!

[Gothmog]

20. I agree with Josh

[Gothmog]

21. Here is why I like Joe

Link to tweet