'I don't see any path for Biden to win the nomination without South Carolina'

[brooklynite]

Politico

ROCK HILL, S.C. — Joe Biden’s front-running presidential bid will live or die by the black vote. His campaign tacitly acknowledged it this week.

Advisers to the former vice president began lowering expectations about winning both Iowa and New Hampshire — where more than 90 percent of the primary vote will be cast by white voters — and directing attention toward South Carolina and the South, where black voters will cast a majority of the primary vote in a handful of states on Super Tuesday.

It doesn’t mean Biden is conceding the first two nominating contests, just that his campaign views South Carolina — where more than 60 percent of the primary voters are African American — as the one early primary it absolutely cannot afford to lose.

It’s the clearest evidence yet of his campaign’s theory of the case, which is rooted in Biden’s strength among black voters — a vestige of the former vice president’s service in the Obama administration. African Americans back Biden by outsized margins in both the Palmetto State and nationally, which makes South Carolina the linchpin of Biden’s early-state strategy.

[DownriverDem]

1. Biden's support

runs deep and wide. I"m not black and support Biden all the way. Please do some research. DU does not reflect the country. It is more left than the country. Don't be fooled.

[brush]

16. True. I don't get why this OP is here. There is no chance Biden won't do well in South Carolina.

[thesquanderer]

19. but "doing well" is not the same as winning.

Expectations for Biden in SC are high. I don't think it's a must-win state... but if he happens to lose Iowa/NH, then it might be a must-win state. No matter how well he does in SC, if someone else pulls ahead... 3 contests in and no victory would put a big dent in his "presumed most likely winner" status.

[brush]

24. Let me re-phrase then. There is little chance Biden won't win South Carolina.

This post is bordering on sh_t stirring. The AA demographic, dominant in Dem circles in SC, is stacked in Biden's favor.

That's just reality but doesn't mean the race will be over. Other candidates will win/do well in other states. Super Tuesday which will follow shortly after SC will include California this year with its huge delegate cache and will be pivotal in who emerges with a lead in delegates. Harris should do well there and will most likely have already done well in SC. Warren's strengths are in other states on Super Tuesday and she will emerge with a sizeable delegate count.

The race is hardly over and Gov. Cuomo of NY is trying to move NY's primary up to Feb. so stay tuned.

[George II]

45. As it stands now, Joe Biden is the only candidate who will win any pledged delegates in SC.

Everyone else will be shut out except possibly one or two district delegates that might be won by another candidate.

[LanternWaste]

2. We often don't see that which doesn't validate our narrative. By choice.

Part of the human condition.

[pangaia]

6. True of Biden supporters as well. of course.

I am going to venture that I see that happening at Du the most with Biden and Sanders supporters... I could be werong,, and who cares anyhway, I'm having my Am coffee OJ and All-Bran.

[Demsrule86]

7. I find it happens the most with Warren supporters...she isn't trending and isn't ahead.

But you would never know that here.

[pangaia]

8. Of course you do. You are a Biden supporter.

See, proves my point..






almost awake...

[Demsrule86]

12. Or your response proves my point...I look at polls...she isn't trending...at 2% in term off AA vote.

But still some claim all sorts of things about her...my candidate like it or not tops the polls and has for months.

[Demsrule86]

22. I don't think his brain is slow...he knows his stuff... I have a son who stutters so I have seen the

mind racing but the tongue a bit slower...my son is mostly over it...but sometimes in moments of stress. As for the others, I will support any candidate. I just happen to think Biden is the best to take MI, WI and PA...which ends Trump's chances for a second term. All the Candidate's policy is Democratic policy (all good IMHO) so I don't care about it this year...just want to win. And if we don't get the Senate, we won't get any new policy through anyway, but we can stop the judges even if we don't get the Senate. And we can stop the worst of the GOP shit and the murderouse EO's...and get Trump's small hands off the nuke buttons... That is a BFD.

[pangaia]

27. I am a 'former' stutterer" ---in public school and undergrad school it was pretty bad..

Still very, very occasionally.. and almost unnoticeable-
I'm not so sure that is the issue. Maybe so...

"I just happen to think Biden is the best to take MI, WI and PA.." I would agree with you there, from what little I know.

"...which ends Trump's chances for a second term." I would not agree with you there. I seem to be one of the few who either see or are willing to admit or who THINK they see that the fascists will not stop at legal, constitutional means to take full power.

They have been after this for some 50 years and are now positioned to succeed. Their 'jackbooted' thugs are in place all over the country from town clerks to VP.- not long before they own the courts, police, military, election boards, the PRESS! It is like a cancer. It is what keeps the Chinese government in power. The will NOT let Hong Kong get away with it. And neither will the republicans let democrats succeed, not without a vicious, battle. And it may very well be a bloody one.

[Demsrule86]

42. Stealing close elections is easy...but overwhelming big victories not so much...we have to win big

and Biden can do that.

[brush]

17. This OP postulates something there is no evidence of. There is little doubt Biden will do well in SC

This is bordering on sh_t stirring.

[Demsrule86]

23. Bordering?

[brush]

25. I'm trying to be nice.

[pangaia]

29. Wait, are you going after me as well as the OP?

[brush]

30. Re-read it. Seem pretty clear to me the OP is the problem.

[pangaia]

31. That's what I thought. So I didn;t know why you replied to me...

[still_one]

4. Another "unamed advisors" from Politico. It was only a few weeks ago some "unamed Democrats" were

saying Biden was going to spend less time campaigning because of his "gaffes"

That didn't seem to happen, but of course Politico doesn't come out and just say that they are a political National Enquirer

[JI7]

5. Biden knows how imporant south Carolina is for him

[crazytown]

9. And if he wins it by a lower margin than HRC?

[George II]

15. OH NO - if he doesn't there will be clamoring for him to drop out! Fact is, though....

....he won't win by as much, because there are so many candidates this time around, only two last time.

But as of today, using RealClearPolitics' RCP Average, Joe Biden will win all 54 pledged delegates. He's the only candidate with more than 15%.

[still_one]

18. Exacatly. So many "concerned" folks about Biden. Right after he got in many of those concerned

said his current lead was only because of “name recognition”

That didn’t seem to stick well, so then they moved to his “gaffes”, age, health concerns, implying that “I know you aren’t a racist, but....”, and on and on

I wonder what will be said and f he does well in Iowa and N.H.?

[peggysue2]

40. They'll say the 'establishment' put their thumb on the scale

Or the numbers must have been skewed. Or there were highjinks with the votes. Or . . .

Whatever.

Biden is the frontrunner, the candidate with a target on his back. Case closed.

[still_one]

43. No doubt

[Peacetrain]

10. Not to worry.. VP Biden is doing fine.. so is Sen Warren..

in Iowa.. but between you me and the wall.. the person to watch with great interest coming out of Iowa not named Biden and Warren is Buttigieg... I know his poll numbers are not reflecting it.. but gosh is he getting a lot of positive feedback over the coffee with the seedcaps at the cafe..

[Demsrule86]

26. He has to deal with the police chief thing in order to climb in any but small white states. I still

think he lacks experience. He is not getting AA support.

[Peacetrain]

37. No he is not getting the support of the AA community, you are right about that

and it is something he will have to address.. I know he is trying, but those things take time.. and people look at where you have stood over an extended period of time.. that is why people get so confused about VP Biden.. He has a long long history because he has been in office since he was 29, and the assumption was that it would be a down side.. when actually, people can look at his record over the years and it is a positive... so keeping that in mind, this may not be Mayor Petes year, but he is young and has the opportunity to develop that long record people can then depend on ...

[George II]

11. A week ago someone said that Biden couldn't win the nomination without winning Iowa and NH....

Then I pointed out that Clinton won Iowa by a fraction of a point and was beaten by 23 points in New Hampshire. We all know what happened in July 2016.

Now it's South Carolina.

The "path to win the nomination" is a candidate getting either 50% of the pledged delegates during the first ballot at the convention, or 50% of all delegates during any subsequent ballots. Anything short of that will not be a "path to win the nomination."

[Drunken Irishman]

44. Obama also won Iowa and lost NH...

[honest.abe]

13. You can say that about any of our candidates.

To win the Democratic nomination a candidate must win the black vote and at the moment Biden has the upper hand.

[comradebillyboy]

14. Biden seeems to have a comfortable lead in SC. Is he in danger

of losing it? A lot can happen between now and the primaries. I hope he's not too complacent.

[George II]

21. As of now he's the only one over 15%, so he will win ALL 54 pledged delegates.

[comradebillyboy]

33. I suppose Politico is just trying to stir things up. nt

[George II]

39. It's what they do.

[underthematrix]

28. Does anyone notice we have the angry white voter

on both the right and left? It seems to me both Warren and Sanders appeal to this group which may be a large of white Democratic primary voters. Are other people seeing this or am I seeing something that's not borne out by your personal experience or news reports?

Even though I'm supporting Biden, I really like Warren too.

[aikoaiko]

32. Joe made great memes with Obama.

[LongtimeAZDem]

34. From RCP:

RCP Average 7/9 - 8/12 Biden +23.7
Post and Courier 8/9 - 8/12 Biden +19
Monmouth 7/18 - 7/22 Biden +27
CBS News/YouGov 7/9 - 7/18 Biden +22

[George II]

41. Early states:

41 Delegates, Iowa: 7/9 - 8/4 26.0 18.0 14.0 13.5 (Biden, Warren, Sanders, Harris)
24 Delegates, New Hampshire: 7/9 - 8/6 21.0 14.7 19.3 9.0 (Biden, Warren, Sanders, Harris)
36 Delegates, Nevada: 6/6 - 8/16 30.0 15.3 15.3 8.7 (Biden, Warren, Sanders, Harris)
54 Delegates, South Carolina: 7/9 - 8/12 38.0 12.7 14.3 12.0 (Biden, Warren, Sanders, Harris)

As of today:

Iowa - Biden 24 delegates, Warren 17 delegates, 0 for everyone else
New Hampshire - Biden 13 delegates, Sanders 11 delegates, 0 for everyone else
Nevada - Biden 18 delegates, Warren 9 delegates, Sanders 9 delegates, 0 for everyone else
South Carolina - Biden 54 delegates, 0 for everyone else

Totals after the first four states - Biden 109, Warren 26, Sanders 20

THAT is a path to victory for Biden.

[5starlib]

35. Black voters are being downgraded

I don't know why voters in IA or NH are more supreme than voters in SC. I'm sick of the low-key racism. How come it's okay for Liz and Bernie to NOT do well in SC, but it's a killer if Biden doesn't do well in IA or NH?

[dsc]

36. This is why I think Harris has a better chance

than Sanders at this point. She can turn the SC vote, he can't. Biden could well lose both Iowa and NH to Warren but that would still leave SC and other southern states where Biden is strong. Harris can do what Obama did to Clinton, I don't think Warren can.

[NYMinute]

38. It is all about delegates

Biden could lose IA and NH by a few points but in delegate count he will not be behind by much.