Corn Pop & Pop Corn: Post-Debate (3) Poll Analysis

[UncleNoel]

Last edited Thu Sep 19, 2019, 10:15 AM - Edit history (2)

Good analysis of where we stand on Presidential Pimary polls since the third debate on VOX:

[link:https://www.vox.com/2019/9/18/20872216/warren-biden-yang-democratic-presidential-polls|

Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren are the top two candidates in the presidential race, according to most polls taken since last week’s debate.

Of the five national polls taken since then, all show the former vice president continuing to lead, and four show Warren in second place — and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders in third. (The fifth poll shows Sanders in second and Warren in third).

A poll from NBC News and the Wall Street Journal shows Warren 11 points ahead of Sanders, but polls from HarrisX, SurveyUSA, and YouGov show her leading him by 1 to 4 points, and a Morning Consult poll shows her trailing Sanders by 2. On average, that’s a 3.2 percent margin for Warren over Sanders. That’s bigger than before, but it’s not clear whether it will hold up (or expand) in the coming weeks.

As for the other candidates, the worst news is for California Sen. Kamala Harris. Every new national poll shows her clearly falling behind the top three candidates. In fact, she’s barely ahead of South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg in two polls, tied with him in a third, and trails him in the other two.

And beyond the top five, Andrew Yang, Beto O’Rourke, and Cory Booker all have about 3 percent support each in national polls since the debate — a slight improvement for all three but not enough to bump any of them up to the top tier of candidates.

The big picture is that the debate may have solidified the shape of the field — with Biden in first and Warren and Sanders probably in that order behind him.

But one big question going forward is whether Warren will manage to put some distance between herself and Sanders, emerging as the clear second-place candidate rather than essentially tied with Sanders (as polling averages currently show).

RCP is still showing the average with one pre-debate poll. If we drop that poll and only have the six post-debate polls (updated to include Florida Atlantic University) plus one HarrisX poll from 538, we get the following:

(I left out the lower tier candidates; the polling there is also interesting, but I am focusing on the upper and mid-tier candidates.

Post-debate (3) Polling Data [Hope I got it all correct--done on the run]

Average: JB 31, EW 20, BS 16, Harris 6, Buttigieg 6 (Biden +11)
HarrisX (LV) 9/15-9/18: JB 34, EW 18, BS 14, Harris 5, Buttigieg 5 (Biden +16)
FOX (LV) 9/15-9/17: JB 29, EW 16, BS 18, Harris 7, Buttigieg 5 (Biden +13)
Economist 9/14-9/17: JB 26, EW 21, BS 14, Harris 6, Buttigieg 9 (Biden +5)
SUSA 9/13-9/16: JB 33, EW 19, BS 17, Harris 6, Buttigieg 5 (Biden +14)
FLAtlanticU 9/12-9/15: JB 34, EW 24, BS 14, Harris 4, Buttigieg 5 (Biden +10)
NBC/WSJ 9/13-9/16: JB 31, EW 25, BS 14, Harris 5, Buttigieg 7 (Biden +6)
Morn-Cons 9/13-9/15: JB 32, EW 18, BS 20, Harris 6, Buttigieg 5 (Biden +12)

This clearly shows Biden well ahead despite the Corn Pop, and Warren not so much closing the gap as the Pop Corn show of the media hype. In fact, Sanders cannot be ruled out here as Sanders and Warren are playing leapfrog for second place. More power to her, though. While I am a Biden supporter, I respect Warren and her supporters. She is strong, smart, and knowledgeable and would make a great President. I worry though about her electability.

As for Biden, his durability belies the narrative that his lead is fragile. It is, in fact, solid.

I like statistics. Though not an expert, I worked with Morris Dees years back when he was first beginning the Southern Poverty Law Center. I did over a hundred attachments to a federal court redistricting suit for the state legislature demonstrating racial bias in the gerrymandered Alabama legislative districts ([E.D.] Nixpn vs Brewer). We won the case and 15 Blacks were elected in the redrawn legislative districts. The first time Blacks were elected to the legislature since Reconstruction after the civil war. I also presented a paper written with Amrit Lal, Black Power Alabama, to the McGovern Committee on Party Reform in Meridian, Mississippi (Birch Bayh chairing). Almost got fired when the governor saw my testimony on TV. Eventually had to resign when thrown in jail by a Montgomery policeman who later became a body guard for Wallace during his jpresidential campaign. More on my involvement here:

[link:https://www.crmvet.org/vet/schutz.htm|

We went all the way with McGovern which is one of the reasons I am a moderated-left Obama-Biden Dem.

[DownriverDem]

1. When

are folks going to get it? Biden is our best candidate to win the Electoral College. It doesn't matter who we like if they can't win.

[Green Line]

2. When is right

Everyone is treating this like a popular vote election instead of an EC election. Joe can win the midwest, Warren can't

[UncleNoel]

3. The Rust Belt, the Black Vote

and the majority of Democratic and Independent voters.