It's interesting that Predictit still has Warren leading Biden 45-26

[Alhena]

https://www.predictit.org/markets/1/US-Elections

That's a pretty amazing disparity when you think about it. A poll today shows Biden leading Warren by 17 points, and we're not at the start of the campaign by any means. And yet, when people put down their hard-earned money to bet, Warren is an overwhelming favorite.

Not sure what to make of that, but it is interesting.

[DrToast]

1. My guess

The media is in love with Warren and people are betting that will pay off eventually.

[jcgoldie]

3. Or...

Warren is surging in the polls and Biden has stumbled through 3 debates while his poll numbers have remained stagnant and there are 5 + months and NINE debates remaining before the first votes are cast.

[left-of-center2012]

6. Biden has stumbled through 3 debates ?????

No.
That's not true.

[jcgoldie]

7. Its a subjective standard I suppose

Most people see what they want to see. I saw borderline incoherence. We'll see what happens. The betting markets that this OP refers to are not infallible but also not to be laughed at... that is people's money not just their opinions being tracked.

[George II]

2. Isn't Predictit a bookmaking site?

[Alhena]

4. I think it's in a grey area

apparently they have some sketchy research grant or something that lets them get past online gambling laws.

[ritapria]

5. Why Predict has Warren ahead

There is a growing consensus that Warren will rack up big victories in Iowa and NH and ride that momentum to a close second in SC - wrapping up the nomination with crushing victories on Super Tuesday - particularly in CA ….. She has the media fully on board …. I believe Biden would be a much stronger candidate in the general because of his appeal to working class voters ..

[blm]

9. I believe Warren has the best message for working class voters and

has the talent to deliver it using the language of common sense.

[LincolnRossiter]

8. I've had it put to me in a way that's easy to understand.

The polls show where the race is today.

The prediction markets show where people think the race is going.

The two can be quite disparate this far out, but should reconcile as the race approaches culmination and there's less and less time for something to dramatically change.

Biden is certainly leading now--at least in a national sense. But as you and others have pointed out, perceptions about longevity, upcoming debates (where Warren is, frankly, much better than Biden), advantages in early states that give the sense of momentum, and a biased media all tell at least a plurality of bettors that his lead is tenuous. A stronger than expected showing in Iowa could flip that around in a matter of hours. I watched the predictit market take Kavanaugh's chances of confirmation from 65%, down to about 11% just as Dr. Blasey Ford wrapped up, up to over 80% after Lindsey Graham's defense and Susan Collins' wavering--all in a matter of a few hours.

[TidalWave46]

10. 2020 Presidential Winner

Trump 43
Warren 32

Which Party Wins The Presidency In 2020

Democratic 57
Republican 47

From the link in the op.