New Hampshire poll (Monmouth)

[brooklynite]

Link to tweet

So, if Warren wins Iowa and New Hampshire, and Biden wins South Carolina and Nevada.....

[BeyondGeography]

1. If he loses the first two states forget NV

[Indykatie]

2. Imagine the noise and excitement If Mayor Pete Beats Bernie in NH.

[BeyondGeography]

4. Pete is going to be heard in this campaign IMO

And that’s a good thing.

[Celerity]

12. oh hell YES! I will be all over THAT!!

[brooklynite]

5. Disagree - South Carolina AA vote will be a recovery opportunity

[BeyondGeography]

6. I was talking Nevada

SC will remain his firewall.

[brooklynite]

7. But SC comes before NV, so will give him momentum...

[BeyondGeography]

9. It's a week later

Always has been. NV is 2/22, SC 2/29.

[Celerity]

13. here is the order

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries#Primary_and_caucus_calendar

February 3: Iowa caucuses
February 11: New Hampshire primary
February 22: Nevada caucuses
February 29: South Carolina primary

March 3: Super Tuesday (Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia primaries); American Samoa caucuses; Democrats Abroad party-run primary for expatriates features a March 3–10 voting period.

March 10: Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, and Washington primaries; North Dakota firehouse caucuses (identical to a party-run primary)

March 14: Northern Mariana Islands caucuses

March 17: Arizona, Florida, Illinois, and Ohio primaries

March 24: Georgia primary

March 29: Puerto Rico primary (Former governor Ricardo Rosselló approved the Puerto Rican Senate's bill to change the date to March 29 instead of June)

April 4: Alaska, Hawaii, and Louisiana primaries; Wyoming caucuses

April 7: Wisconsin primary

April 28: Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island primaries

May 2: Kansas primary; Guam caucuses

May 5: Indiana primary

May 12: Nebraska and West Virginia primaries

May 19: Kentucky and Oregon primaries (Oregon legislature considering move to March 3 or 10)

June 2: Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota primaries

June 6: United States Virgin Islands caucuses

June 16: District of Columbia primary (bill proposing a move to June 2 has been put forward)

[Indykatie]

8. Are you Saying Biden Should Drop Out If He Doesn't Win IA or NH?

The difference in delegate counts for Warren and Biden will be in single digits given their close results in IA and NH. I don't think any credible candidate should drop out after IA and NH, 2 small states that look nothing like the Democratic party. I see the first real test as being SC since NV is also a caucus and usually a very messy one.

[BeyondGeography]

10. Nope, just IMO that he won't win NV if he drops the first two

[Demsrule86]

11. Biden will get as many delegates as Warren if the numbers hold and it is within the margin of error.

She is next door to New Hamshiire...if she doesn't win..it might be serious...but not for Biden.

[democrank]

3. Interesting....

Buttigieg gaining steam as well.

[NurseJackie]

14. The BS campaign has cratered!