Biden's AVERAGE lead down to +7.6, lowest for the primary season

[bluewater]

According to RCP POLLS tracker of AVERAGE major poll results, Joe Biden's is now down to a single digit lead of +7.6 over nearest rival Elizabeth Warren.

This is the smallest AVERAGE lead from the major polls to date in the primary contest.

Biden's AVERAGE support is currently at 29%, which is lower than the 29.3% he had on April 25th, the date he announced his campaign.
Over the last 2 months, Biden's support has been fluctuating in the 26-30% range.

Warren's AVERAGE support has broken the 20% level for the first time, and now stands at 21.4%.

Sanders' support stays relatively flat in the 16-17% range over the last 6-7 weeks.

See all the polls and the Trend line tracker for yourself at RCP POLLS:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

As I always say, the polls are what the polls are.

[Lulu KC]

1. Interesting n/t

[empedocles]

2. The more Biden gets knocked down, the better trump's relative chances are.

[HeartlandProgressive]

3. So Warren's rise is not coming from Sanders' supporters.

Interesting at this point in the race.

[TidalWave46]

4. Amazing to me he is still holding just about the same slice of the pie...

He did when he announced. I'm glad that it looks like Warren will be the one challenging him. Still some time left. I'm not counting out a Buttigieg or Harris surge.

[bluewater]

5. So far Biden's floor has been about 26%

His trendline looks something like a rollercoaster ride, with a sharp initial climb, then downswings and upswings that eventually levels off in the 26-30% range.

Biden's floor seems to be at about 26%, he's hit that a few times now, but has not dropped lower yet.

Chart shows it best, I think:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

[bluewater]

7. The Democratic Partry has to attack Warren? um, no...

[jcgoldie]

8. Warren En Fuego!

[MineralMan]

9. Or, Biden maintains substantial lead of +7.6, despite competition.

Lots of ways to say things, aren't there?

[BannonsLiver]

10. I suspect this OP is a response to 3-4 really good state polls for Biden today

The narrative on Biden the OP has attempted to craft here has taken a real beating the last couple weeks. When that happens the efforts to parse numbers usually ramps up as we have seen in this OP.

[MineralMan]

11. I think you're correct in that.

Every state participates in the general election. Every state matters. I want the strongest possible candidate in each and every state. That's what I want.

[Peacetrain]

12. Ding ding ding ding ding.. we have a winner

[bluewater]

13. I suspect the op is due to the results of a series of major national polls

The polls are what the polls are.

Attempting to ignore how the primary race is tightening is just silly.

[BannonsLiver]

19. No need to apologize

We’re all welcome to our narratives here.

And as I always say, the narratives are what the narratives are.

[bluewater]

14. Or, the race is OBVIOUSLY tightening

Lot's of ways to say things, aren't there?



The polls are what the polls are.

People can see the trend in the polls for themselves at RCP POLLS tracker:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

[MineralMan]

15. Yes, and then, there is that big green area under the polls

that shows Biden's lead. It's been green down there all along. Sometimes there's more green than others, but it's always green. I watch the polls, too.

[bluewater]

17. um, Biden's lead was once 33.4% on May 10th... now 7.6%

As recently as September 1st Biden's lead was 14.2%, today it's 7.6%.

The solid green graphic at the bottom of the chart clearly shows the downward trend of Biden's lead.

Anyone can see that for themselves at RCP POllS at the bottom of the chart, mouse over that to see the exact numbers for each date:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html


The primary race is obviously tightening.

facts are stubborn things

[Skya Rhen]

21. I distinclty recall someone recently saying that polls don't mean anything, this early. Hmmmm....

[HeartlandProgressive]

22. obviously not you

didn't you post 4 polls today?

[Skya Rhen]

23. Obviously not me - I relish in all of the polls. My preferred candidate remains in an enviable

position.

[NYMinute]

16. This will change when the couple of recent outliers drop off. nt

[bluewater]

18. You mean the Morning Consult and HarrisX online panels polls?

Those are always high for Biden.



but, remember, the polls are what the polls are.

You cannot cherry pick which polls you want to pay attention to.