Why Black Voters Prefer Establishment Candidates Over Liberal Alternatives

[Gothmog]

I personally believe that Iowa and New Hampshire are essentially meaningless. These states are 90+% white and do not represent the demographics of the party. The primary process does not really start until South Carolina where the voting population reflects the demographics of the party as a whole.

I found this article from 538 to be very informative https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-do-black-democrats-usually-prefer-establishment-candidates/

So here are a few explanations for why black voters have tended to side with the establishment wing of the Democratic Party. I have tried to order these explanations from strongest to weakest (in my view, at least):

1. Establishment candidates typically have existing ties to the black community
This will sound tautological, but an establishment candidate is … well … established. A candidate who is part of the establishment wing of the Democratic Party likely has fairly strong ties to major constituencies in the party, such as labor unions, women’s rights groups and, of course, black leaders and voters. So when black voters backed Gov. Andrew Cuomo over Cynthia Nixon in New York’s Democratic gubernatorial primary last year, or Andy Beshear over Adam Edelen in Kentucky’s Democratic gubernatorial primary earlier this year, that was not shocking. Not only did Beshear and Cuomo spend years developing their own ties with the black communities in their states, but their fathers did, too. (Steve Beshear was governor of Kentucky, Mario Cuomo the governor of New York.)

Clinton in 2016 and Biden in 2020 similarly entered the primaries with longstanding ties to black voters. It’s worth considering if the story here is not that establishment candidates are smarter in appealing and connecting with black voters during the campaign, compared to anti-establishment candidates. Maybe it’s that the establishment candidate in a race is likely to be the person who enters the campaign with the strongest support among black voters.

2. Black voters are pragmatic
White Democrats are significantly more likely than black Democrats to describe themselves as liberal. Perhaps that’s the simple explanation for why most black voters eschew more liberal candidates. But scholars of black voters argue that the liberal-moderate-conservative framework does not apply well to predicting the actual policy positions and voting behavior of black Americans.

I agree with the conclusion of this article

But even if Sanders or Warren gets more support among black voters in 2020 than the Vermont senator did in 2016, I tend to think Biden will remain fairly popular with black voters overall — because of his ties to Obama and other black leaders and the perception that he can defeat Trump. So there is a very real possibility that black voters will play the same role in the 2020 presidential primary that they have played in Democratic politics over much of the last four years: blocking the path of the liberal left as it attempts to dethrone the party’s establishment.

[guillaumeb]

1. I agree with your starting paragraph.

Eliminate single state primaries in favor of a multi-state process where 5-10 states are in play.

[Blue_true]

13. Here is my take on early states.

South Carolina and Nevada will fight to keep Iowa and New Hampshire first and not let other states grab that "first" mantle.

Here is why.

Eventhough Iowa and New Hampshire get the lion's share of attention early on, South Carolina and Nevada get a buttload of visits also (we are seeing California and Texas get more now that they have moved way up).

South Carolina and Nevada get a lot of venue rental expenditures, hiring by campaigns and other expenditures by candidates and news organizations that visit the later states whole Iowa and New Hampsirr are on deck. So SC and NV are making money all along. Then Iowa and NH vote, then the klieg lights turn fully on SC and NV, opening the cash spigots wide open through the vote in those states.

If diverse, big population states like New York, Illinois, or Florida muscle IA and NH out of first, then SC and NV lose a ton of influence and more importantly, money spent in them.

The reason above is why I believe the four early states will fight as one to retain their positions. States like Florida and Illinois have no reason to try to move up, they get more pop by holding back and participating in regional primaries with states in their immediate geographical region (like the 2016 SEC primary, where several southern states voted on the same day).

[DrFunkenstein]

2. Thank You For The White-Splaining How Black People Vote

Massachusetts liberal John Kerry won 88% of the Black vote, the highest percentage of anyone who was not Barack Obama. Including both Bill or Hillary Clinton.

But thanks for the spin!

[Gothmog]

6. You do know that the author of this article is Perry Bacon?

Mr. Perry Bacon is African American

[Blue_true]

14. Wow, you just keep stepping in it.

"The person who wrote the article is Black, so he knows all Black people's mindset". Not exactly "Killer Mike supports Bernie Sanders and Killer Mike is Black, so how he views Bernie is how all Blacks view Bernie", maybe not exactly, but pretty darn close.

[Gothmog]

16. How is Killer Mike's endorsement working for sanders?

I trust Perry Bacon and 538 on this subject

[Blue_true]

17. The point that I was making is that trying to characterize a whole ethnic group's thinking by one

member of that group's thinking is wrongheaded and frankly, intellectually lazy.

[Gothmog]

24. Again how is the support of Nina Turner who voted for stein working for sanders?

[OilemFirchen]

23. Holy shit.

Gothmog responded to the reactionary presumption of "White-Splaining" by pointing out that the author is a black man.

Looks like you're swimming in it.

[Tom Rinaldo]

30. THIS n/t

[yardwork]

32. But that's not what the poster said.

How is it "whitesplaining" if the author is black?

Nobody said that the author speaks for all black people.

[UniteFightBack]

43. Well then what color person would you like the article to be written by. nt

[Blue_true]

45. It wouldn't matter if the person actively steeps himself or herself

in all cultures and makes an earnest effort to understand the challenges of each culture.

What we have today is people are too comfortable with building clusters from within they take a mindset that anyone who is naturally not part of that cluster can't possibly understand the constraints of those within.

[Demsrule86]

11. Kerry lost...and was attacked by the left during the primary. He was views as establishment.

[DemocracyMouse]

12. Kerry's loss was due to being Swift-boated. It was part of the rise of

Republican tactics promoted by Carl Rove: lie and gaslight your way to victory. Never mind your integrity.

And here's the reality. Af American interest in Warren is deepening:

Warren at She the People, MSNBC:

[Demsrule86]

18. Michael Moore and others laid the groundeork fot this...they attacked

Kerry first which made it easier for tne pugs. A Candidate attacked on the right and the left will generally lose.

[DemocracyMouse]

22. No, sorry. It was a very deliberate campaign by disgusting Republicans in a

moral free fall.

[Joe941]

26. +1

[guillaumeb]

76. Well said. eom

[Cha]

84. Maybe you should educate yourself on

who wrote the article, Funkenstein.

[Thekaspervote]

3. Good read from 538!!...thx for posting

[zentrum]

4. Interesting.

[BlueMississippi]

7. This is true of most minorities but AA in particular

They are not easily fooled by unicorns and pixie dust.

This is mainly because they have a lot more to lose due to their lack of privilege. The ultra-left whites who voted third party, stayed home or voted for Trump didn't suffer much from the Trump presidency - but Hispanics and AAs have borne the brunt of the pain.

[Blue_true]

19. Good points.

Very liberal Whites ignored the warning signs and logged a "protest" vote or stayed home. When Trump won, those very liberal Whites went home to homes in predominantly safe neighborhoods, police would not be kicking in their doors accidentally and shooting them when they took action to protect themselves from people that could have well been armed robbers. The liberal Whites didn't have to worry about ICE coming to their jobs or homes and putting them in handcuffs, even though they are here legally or are citizens outright. The liberal Whites didn't have to worry most of the time about racists setting on them late at night on a train or bus home. The White liberals didn't have to worry about a guy driving hundreds of miles to kill the first of them and as many of them that he laid eyes on. So yeah, Susan Sarandon can posture about a "revolution" because as a wealthy and prominent White woman, she does not remotely see the struggles that a Black or Hispanic, or Muslim person faces in America under Trump.

[Gothmog]

25. A vote for Jill Stein was a vote for trump

[MichMan]

81. Turnout is what is important

The 2016 demographics don't appear to support that assertion

"When analyzed together, reported turnout by age, race and Hispanic origin differed in 2016 as well. In comparison to 2012, younger non-Hispanic whites between the ages of 18 to 29 and between the ages of 30 to 44 reported higher turnout in 2016, while voting rates for the two oldest groups of non-Hispanic whites were not statistically different (Figure 5). Meanwhile, for non-Hispanic blacks, turnout rates decreased in 2016 for every age group. For other race non-Hispanics and Hispanics of any race, voting rates between 2012 and 2016 were not statistically different for any age groups."

[link:https://census.gov/newsroom/blogs/random-samplings/2017/05/voting_in_america.html|

[emmaverybo]

8. Thanks for presenting this article. Let it be said that both Warren and Sanders have had

ample time in their political careers to establish relationships with black leaders and communities
had they tried, despite their not being seen as, or identifying themselves as, “establishment” political figures. Just was not a big part of their agenda. Warren is now trying to make up that lack.


Biden got into politics because of the civil rights movement. You can find him way, way back railing
against the Reagan administration on their complicity with apartheid in South Africa.

[Skya Rhen]

9. Thanks! I couldn't have said it better, myself...

[BlueMTexpat]

33. Just to point out ...

that "ample time to establish relationships will black voters and communities" doesn't really apply to Warren.

She only became "political" in the mid-90s. And when she did become "political," she chose to become a member of the Democratic Party.

... Warren's first foray into public policy began in 1995 when she worked to oppose what eventually became a 2005 act restricting bankruptcy access for individuals. Her national profile rose during the late 2000s following her forceful public stances in favor of more stringent banking regulations after the 2007–08 financial crisis. She served as chair of the Congressional Oversight Panel of the Troubled Asset Relief Program and was instrumental in creating the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, of which she served as the first Special Advisor under President Obama. ...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elizabeth_Warren

In a comparatively short time, she has made more impact in political policy that positively affects ALL citizens, e.g., anyone who uses the banking or financial system, than several who have been in politics for decades. And she is continuing to do so.

She is a very effective US Senator: https://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/elizabeth_warren/412542/report-card/2018

And she is very supportive of civil rights. Here's her speech in support of Black Lives Matter at the Edward M. Kennedy Institute in 2015. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/sep/28/senator-elizabeth-warrens-speech-black-lives-matter

...
I have often spoken about how America built a great middle class. Coming out of the Great Depression, from the 1930s to the late 1970s, as GDP went up, wages went up for most Americans. But there’s a dark underbelly to that story. While median family income in America was growing - for both white and African-American families - African-American incomes were only a fraction of white incomes. In the mid-1950s, the median income for African-American families was just a little more than half the income of white families.

And the problem went beyond just income. Look at housing: For most middle class families in America, buying a home is the number one way to build wealth. It’s a retirement plan-pay off the house and live on Social Security. An investment option-mortgage the house to start a business. It’s a way to help the kids get through college, a safety net if someone gets really sick, and, if all goes well and Grandma and Grandpa can hang on to the house until they die, it’s a way to give the next generation a boost-extra money to move the family up the ladder.

For much of the 20th Century, that’s how it worked for generation after generation of white Americans - but not black Americans. Entire legal structures were created to prevent African Americans from building economic security through home ownership. Legally-enforced segregation. Restrictive deeds. Redlining. Land contracts. Coming out of the Great Depression, America built a middle class, but systematic discrimination kept most African-American families from being part of it.
...

She is trying to make herself known to ALL voters ... and that means concentrating on the early primary states for the time being. But - per the polls - she IS gaining ... and steadily among AA voters as well.

[Gothmog]

40. Here is some recent polling on South Carolina

Link to tweet

[PhoenixDem]

10. Well-written piece n/t

[lamoustel]

15. Explains the recent polls in SC. Strong showing for Biden!

[Gothmog]

42. Here is a new South Carolina poll

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

85. Here is the latest SC polling

Link to tweet

[oasis]

20. 100% on board with the article.

[madville]

21. How does South Carolina reflect the demographics of the party as a whole?

In South Carolina, 50% of Democratic primary voters are Black. Nationwide about 25% of Democratic primary voters are Black. I could buy that NH, IA and SC combined together average out to a realistic representation.

[Tarheel_Dem]

27. Great article. Black voters know we don't have the luxury of voting for pie in the sky & unicorns.

It's not a bad thing to vote one's hopes & dreams, but "pragmatism", and even "incrementalism" aren't necessarily bad things either.

[honest.abe]

28. I think its all about trust.

Black voters want someone who they know very well and have a long track record helping black America. Just saying the right words is not good enough. They have been screwed over too many times in the past by fast talking politicians. They need someone they can fully trust who clearly understands and cares about their issues.

[Gothmog]

29. Biden Tries To Build Super Tuesday Firewall

Link to tweet

[DrFunkenstein]

31. Yikes, That's Not a Good Sign

Especially with his lack of cash on hand. I'd say he needs more volunteers, but he should probably be inspiring more to volunteer.

[Gothmog]

35. Meanwhile in the real world

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

63. Is Joe Biden actually underrated now?

Link to tweet

Among black voters in the Quinnipiac poll, Biden took 44% to 10% for Sanders and just 8% for Warren. (South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg received less than 1% of the black vote in South Carolina in the new Q poll. Ouch.)

Of the UNF poll, Dr. Michael Binder, faculty director of the Public Opinion Research Lab, said: "Buoyed by his support among African American voters, Biden has an established lead far above the other contenders in South Carolina."

Biden's lasting strength in South Carolina and with black voters is mirrored in his improving performance in national 2020 polling as well. Biden was in danger of losing his edge over Warren in national 2020 surveys as recently as a few weeks ago. Now? He averages more than 7 points over Warren, according to the polling database maintained by Real Clear Politics.

To be clear: Biden is still not where he wants to be in Iowa or New Hampshire. And his fundraising needs to get drastically better. But his continued strength in South Carolina -- and the persistence of support from black voters even amid online predictions of his imminent demise -- suggest that Biden may have more strengths than he is getting credit for at the moment.

[Gothmog]

34. Biden Expands Lead In South Carolina

This makes me smile https://politicalwire.com/2019/10/06/biden-expands-lead-in-south-carolina/

A new Fox News poll in South Carolina finds Joe Biden captures 41% support among Democratic primary voters, followed by Elizabeth Warren at 12%, Bernie Sanders at 10%, Kamala Harris At 4%, Tom Steyer at 4%, Cory Booker at 3% and Pete Buttigieg at 2%.

[Tom Rinaldo]

36. Iowa and NH are flawed, not meaningless. And so, in a sense, is SC.

The white vote in Iowa and NH is disproportionately large, to a very significant extent, in those states than is either the electorate as a whole or the Democratic base. To a significant degree the opposite is true of SC regarding the Black vote.

I wholeheartedly support having SC and Nevada front ended in the primary/caucus cycle. In fact I would like for Washington DC to vote immediately after NH, if not before. Iowa, NH and Washington DC are small population contests to campaign in, which makes it possible for Democratic candidates who previously lacked a major national profile and the big league funding that goes with it to get a toehold in the race that they can subsequently expand upon.

While I don't want relatively lily white states like Iowa and NH to dominate the Democratic selection process there are some (probably unpopular) observations that I think should be made. Over the last few decades Democratic Presidential candidates have usually been competitive in Iowa and NH in the General Election. That has not been true for deep southern states like SC. Establishing strength in a swing state in not a bad thing.

A very strong case can be made, for better or for worse, that it was the strong loyalty of southern state African American primary voters that won the nomination for Hillary Clinton in 2016. But Hillary Clinton failed to carry any of those states in the General Election. And overall turn out by African American voters in the General Election dropped in 2016 relative to 2012, which was one (among many, Jill Stein for example was another) of the contributing factors to Trump winning the Presidency.

Minorities, especially African Americans, and even more so African American women, have been loyal and strong and indispensable for Democratic presidential victories. Their voices in the nominating process deservedly must be front and center and listened to. But Democrats don't win with minorities alone. A hell of a lot goes into picking a winning presidential candidate, and sometimes with certain people in certain years, an "establishment" identified candidate may not be the most likely to win the actual General Election.

[Hortensis]

37. Biden is a lifelong liberal. Jefferson and Madison were liberals.

Liberals, liberal ideals, liberal personality are all real things.

None mean a faction within the broad liberal majority who dominate the Democratic Party, much less others outside who see the liberal Democratic Party as their problem.

Liberals believe in equality and in representative government OF THE PEOPLE, not of "people who agree with me." Those who see majority choice as a problem to be denied and smashed are not, whether they're on the dissident left or today's right.

Liberals haven't changed from the day a liberal wrote this national mission statement to now:

"We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed,...

If Jefferson spoke for you, you're liberal. Conservative personalities don't really get it, and neither do extremists.

[Gothmog]

38. Biden now at 50% with Black voters in South Carolina

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

39. Poll: Biden holds 24-point lead over Democratic field among black voters

Last edited Mon Oct 7, 2019, 12:48 PM - Edit history (1)

Link to tweet

Former Vice President Joe Biden is the top pick among black voters, with a 24 point lead over his closest competitor in the 2020 Democratic primary field, according to a new poll.

A Hill-HarrisX survey found that 36 percent of registered black voters said they want Biden to be the party's nominee, followed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) with 12 percent support.

No other candidate received double-digit support. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) tied for third place, garnering 8 percent each.

[MichMan]

80. While he has a big lead, that also means that 64% are either undecided or prefer someone else

In spite of Biden overwhelmingly having the highest name recognition.

Also, the poll results don't add up to 100% ??

[Gothmog]

41. Joe Biden is at 61% with African American voters

Link to tweet

[UniteFightBack]

44. Thank goodness AA folks vote with their HEAD. nt

[Gothmog]

65. Biden has 154 endorsements from current or former black or Hispanic elected officials.

Link to tweet

[Blistering Sun]

46. I'd take exception to the idea that the so-called "establishment" candidates...

don't represent the liberal wing of the party, when that's clearly NOT the case.

Since when do leftists get to supplant liberals as "liberals?"

The amount of "re-framing" being done around political terminology amounts to gaslighting AFAIC.

I realize this is 538's verbiage and not your own. I enjoy reading your posts!

[emmaverybo]

52. +1000,000

[Gothmog]

53. How the Democrats' shift to the left indirectly aids Joe Biden

There is a difference between Extremely Liberal and Liberal. A significant portion of the base of the party is not extremely liberal. Here is some interesting polling

Link to tweet

Former vice president Joe Biden is embracing his role as the leading moderate in the 2020 Democratic presidential primary field. He has at times adopted an almost curmudgeonly tone about his opponents’ embrace of more progressive policies, preferring a nostalgia for the way things were back in the good old days of, say, 2015.

It’s an approach that, at first, seems at odds with where the party is going. We’ve noted previously that Democrats are increasingly likely to identify themselves as liberals, a trend that probably helps explain why so many of the 2020 candidates have embraced progressive positions — and why more progressive candidates have entered the race.

Polling, though, suggests that this may not be a foolproof strategy. For one thing, a crowd of more progressive candidates (an admittedly nebulous designation) will compete for the same voters, freeing Biden to vacuum up support from moderates. But polling also shows that Democrats overall aren’t necessarily prioritizing a candidate who espouses progressive policies. The data below are from a recent CNN-SSRS poll: More Democrats think it’s important for a nominee to work with Republicans than to support liberal policies.


.....

I am in the Liberal to Slightly Liberal categories. I consider Joe Biden to be a Liberal but not in the Extremely Liberal category which explains why Joe is doing well with the base of the party. I live in Texas which will be a battleground state if the nominee is not a far left liberal. I know many members of the party who are in moderate to conservative categories who are still strong Democrats and who work hard for the party. We have made progress in turning Texas blue. We will need moderate and conservative Democratic voters to turn Texas blue.

BTW, I enjoy your posts also.

[Gothmog]

55. The Democratic Party is a big tent party and not all liberals are the same

The classifications are based on how voters self-identified as in response to the polling cited in the article. The pollster came up with categories for voters to self-identify. The Democratic Party is a big tent party that includes many different types of liberals and also includes moderates, conservatives and persons who do not identify as being either liberal or conservative. The polling cited above merely reflects how Democratic voters identify themselves.

There are more than one flavor of liberals. In Texas, I am consider an extreme liberal by the GOP types who I know including some partners in my firm. I have friends and children who make me feel like a conservative. For example, all three of my children are irked at me for going to a private Biden fundraiser and getting my picture taken with Joe Biden. To make my middle child happy, I have made a donation to Warren. I have friends in the local and state party who both more and less liberal than I am.

Right now, I am supporting a candidate running for one of the six Texas congressional seats being targeted by the DCCC (Sri Preston Kulkarni) who is attempting to mobilize the Asian vote in my county. Historically Asian voters in my county did not vote or voted republican. Sri's campaign is talking to these votes in 16 different languages and bringing them into the Democratic Party. These voters tend to be liberal on social issues and becoming an important part of the Democratic base of the party in my county. I have met a good number of Yang Gang types among these voters and I admire the dedication of these voters.

I am supporting Biden for a host of reasons including the fact that Biden is the most electable candidate that the party has. I do not consider myself to be an extreme liberal and so neither Warren nor sanders appeal to me. I do really like Harris, Klobuchar, Beto and Mayor Pete but I will vote for the nominee of the party in any case.

Again, I am a member of the Democratic Party which is a big tent party that includes many different types of liberals, moderates, conservatives and voters who do not identify as either conservative or liberal.

[Gothmog]

57. Again, the pollster came up with these categories and voters self-identified

I also am not a fan of Democratic Socialism and if the party nominates someone in that category, we can forget about Texas being a battleground state. I and a number of real hardcore Democrats have been working hard to turn Texas blue. Right now, Texas will be a battleground state for the Presidential race if we nominate Biden or another moderate. In 2018, we flipped two Congressional seats from red to blue (Lizzie Fletcher and Colin Allred). Colin and Lizzie are being targeted by the GOP and we will have to work hard to defend these seats. I have already donated to Colin and will be donating to Lizzie

In addition the DCCC and the Texas state party have identified 6 additional congressional seats that could be flipped. I have donated to Sri Preston Kulkarni, Kim Olson and Wendy Davis. In addition, Texas Democrats picked up 12 seats in the Texas state house in 2018 and we need to flip 9 seats in the Texas state house to control the Texas house and the 2021 redistricting session.

If Warren is the nominee, I am convinced that Texas will not be a battleground state and it is clear that we will have trouble flipping any seats and may lose Lizzie's and Colin's seats. I doubt that we will be able to flip the Texas state house and will see some horrible redistricting.

[Gothmog]

59. We are not in disagreement

The Democratic Party is thriving because it has a large and diverse base. I disagree with the concept that one is a bad democrat if they do not support MFA or other similar programs. The party picked up 40 congressional seats in the midterms with candidates who are not extreme.

We have to defeat trump. I agree with Joe that the country cannot stand 4 more years of trump.

[Hortensis]

47. The "Democratic establishment" IS liberal.

We liberals dominate the Democratic Party in large numbers. Out of 235 members, both of the 2 large Democratic house ideological caucuses, nearly 200 together, are liberal. 27 conservatives make up the blue dog caucus, and a handful of others are dissident LWers extreme enough to be increasingly illiberal and proudly identify separate from all the rest.

Don't be fooled by hostile MSM calling that small percentage of farther-left dissidents and sorta-socialists "liberal" and the rest of the party "moderate." That's just today's version of subverting understanding of who Democrats are than Gingrich's 1990s' "radical liberal commies."

We are the liberal party, and most black Democrats are, or align with, moderate liberals. Not "moderates." Moderate liberals.

[Hortensis]

49. Lol, how'd I miss your post? A simple +1000 would have done.

Including appreciating Gothmog's posts. A lot.

[Hortensis]

51. :)

I am very proud, especially in this era!, to be liberal.

[Gothmog]

61. The most important number in the CNN 2020 poll isn't the one you think it is

You can not win the Democratic nomination without significant African American voter support

Link to tweet

Biden is ahead because he is consolidating his support among non-white voters, a key voting bloc among whom he already had a very clear edge over his primary rivals.
Here's how the numbers by race break out in the new CNN poll:
Whites

Biden 27%
Warren 23%
Sanders 15%

Non-Whites

Biden 42%
Sanders 16%
Warren 13%

That's striking stuff. And while Biden has long led among non-white voters, his support has surged since earlier this fall when he was taking just 28% of their vote in a hypothetical Democratic primary ballot.
Why is his support among non-white voters -- and the suggestion that support is increasing as actual votes near -- so important for Biden and his chances? Because non-whites have been the decisive voting bloc in each of the recent contested Democratic presidential primaries. In 2008, Barack Obama beat Hillary Clinton because of his massive edge over her among black voters. Eight years later, Clinton beat Sanders because she crushed him among African Americans and Hispanics.

[Gothmog]

62. Black vote in SC in new Qpac poll:

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

64. Biden does best among African America voters

Link to tweet

[Jakes Progress]

66. This idea ignores one truth.

15 minutes after Warren gets the nomination, Barack Obama will begin campaigning with and for her. He will be with her so much you would think he was the VP candidate. And Joe Biden - who will be privately miffed and angry - will blanket South Carolina with campaign with support. I don't expect a Democrat like Joe to pull a Bernie and sulk publicly.

Of course it goes the other way too. 15 minutes after Booker or Harris or Biden gets the nomination, Warren (and Obama) will be all over the campaign trail. I expect Bernie to do his thing again, but this time we would have a true progressive in Warren to mitigate the bitterness.

[Gothmog]

68. Warren cannot get the nomination with only white voter support

So far Warren is not doing well with African American voters. Warren will not be the nominee without African American and Latino supprt

[Jakes Progress]

70. Your own words.

"So far"

[Gothmog]

89. African American vote share in this South Carolina @YouGov poll:

Link to tweet

[Jakes Progress]

90. You are the one who said "so far".

Biden cannot win the general.

[Cha]

67. Good news.. "establishment" are

"Liberals", too!

[Scurrilous]

69. K&R

[Gothmog]

71. Look at Joe Biden's support

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

72. This polling explains a great deal

Link to tweet

[Hortensis]

73. Why the headline's denial of our establishment's liberal principles?

That's a very insidious undermining of understanding of who we are. Bernie Sanders says we're mostly like Republicans, hardly any difference. That would be true if our mainstream was conservative adn only a faction on the farther left was liberal. But it's a lie.

Our party is overwhelmingly dominated by liberalism, and of course that includes our "establishment," our "base," and the faction being called liberal here but who believe in the same principles and goals as the rest.

[Gothmog]

74. African American voters are pragmatic which helps Joe Biden

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

75. 'I know Joe's heart': Why black voters are backing Joe Biden

Link to tweet

Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms endorsed Biden this summer and recently joined him at a meeting with other black mayors from the South who are considering which candidate to back. She vouched for Biden’s commitment to the black community even if he says things that seem in poor taste, such as his comments early in the campaign in which he fondly recalled being able to work with segregationist-era senators early in his career.

“The larger context of it was that you have to work across the aisle with people you don’t like, people who you don’t agree with,” she said. “I do it each and every day as mayor of Atlanta in a red state.”

Bottoms is a prominent surrogate with black voters, stumping for Biden in South Carolina and at historically black colleges. She’s among a few high-profile African Americans associated with his campaign, including campaign co-chair Cedric Richmond, a Democratic congressman from Louisiana and the former head of the Congressional Black Caucus.....

Richmond credits Biden’s popularity with black voters to their ability to discern authenticity and the vice president’s relatability that transcends race.

“If they look at his life, they understand although he’s white, he’s had a life full of some very big ups, but some humongous downs,” Richmond said, adding that Barack Obama’s decision to choose Biden as his running mate sends a strong signal to black voters.
“We don’t want to lose,” Richmond said. “He’s our best chance and he was vice president to Barack Obama. The person he trusted the most was Joe Biden.”

[aikoaiko]

77. At least this is an admission that Biden is the "establishment" candidate.

So many people tried to reject that term when it applied.

[Gothmog]

78. If Joe Biden...isn't on the ballot in 2020, many older black voters might just stay home,

Link to tweet

[aikoaiko]

79. I thought older black voters are the base.

If they don't vote, then they are not the base.

A lot of people don't get what they want in a candidate.

[MH1]

86. Yes and no. Because of racism, barriers are higher for black voters.

Barriers = disincentives to get to the polls.

If the nominee is someone who thinks racism isn't important, the incentives might not outweigh the disincentives for the struggling older black voter.

On the other hand, a more traditional - aka "establishment" candidate who is trusted by the black community, is more likely to be perceived as presenting stronger incentives. ALSO and very important: the establishment candidate who is paying attention to race, will know how to work the Democratic machines in the cities to help these voters turn out. On the other hand, a candidate who is playing to a different "base", may care less and probably knows less.

I don't excuse anyone for whom it's easy to vote, who fails to get their ass to the poll. But I have seen some of the difficulties some people face and anything we can do to help them get to the polls, only helps our candidate. And I won't blame someone who risks getting fired from their job for being late if they don't vote ... when some lily-pure-conscience whiner either can't be bothered or can't sully themselves to vote for the Democrat who wasn't their first choice.

[Gothmog]

82. How Black voters can win the nomination for Biden

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

83. Dissecting 'the black vote'

Link to tweet

Myth No. 1: Black voters are liberal.

One of the defining phenomena of contemporary American electoral politics is the black electorate’s large and enduring support for the Democratic Party, which has concurrently moved leftward.

Its presidential candidates have received an average of nearly 90% of the black vote for the past six decades. Many conclude that black voters’ liberal preferences, carried over from economic and racially progressive policies of the civil rights movement and Jesse Jackson’s presidential campaigns of 1984 and 1988, led this shift.

But black voters’ support of Democratic candidates is a function of electoral pragmatism — voting in a risk-averse fashion to preserve gains, instead of ideologically in hopes of immediate transformative change — not devotion to left-wing ideology.

In surveys, more than half of black Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents prefer a public option for health care over Medicare-for-all, and two-thirds of black Americans favor charter schools and choice programs, which run counter to party orthodoxy.
Only 28% of black Democrats consider themselves liberal, according to the Pew Research Center, while 70% identify as moderate or conservative. And black liberal Democrats constitute just 17% of the left wing of the party, Gallup found.

[The Valley Below]

87. I'm struggling to accept that Joe Biden, a life-long liberal doesn't count as a "liberal"

according to the author of this piece.

I don't accept the re-framing. Not a bit.

[Gothmog]

88. There is liberal and extreme liberal according to polling data

Link to tweet

Former vice president Joe Biden is embracing his role as the leading moderate in the 2020 Democratic presidential primary field. He has at times adopted an almost curmudgeonly tone about his opponents’ embrace of more progressive policies, preferring a nostalgia for the way things were back in the good old days of, say, 2015.

It’s an approach that, at first, seems at odds with where the party is going. We’ve noted previously that Democrats are increasingly likely to identify themselves as liberals, a trend that probably helps explain why so many of the 2020 candidates have embraced progressive positions — and why more progressive candidates have entered the race.

Polling, though, suggests that this may not be a foolproof strategy. For one thing, a crowd of more progressive candidates (an admittedly nebulous designation) will compete for the same voters, freeing Biden to vacuum up support from moderates. But polling also shows that Democrats overall aren’t necessarily prioritizing a candidate who espouses progressive policies. The data below are from a recent CNN-SSRS poll: More Democrats think it’s important for a nominee to work with Republicans than to support liberal policies.


.....

[Gothmog]

91. Here is some recent polling

Link to tweet