We are about to see a major shift in the primary.

[TidalWave46]

Sanders is done and Biden is about to fall.

Sanders: Sanders was already on a downward trajectory. His heart attack is going to end any possibility of a comeback. He will continue to raise very large sums of money but he is going to be relegated to the bottom tier of candidates. This will stop any possibility for him to gain any type of meaningful delegates. He will end up with almost none. This is really what he was in for anyway. Going into the convention with some clout. By the time the convention rolls around I am willing to bet that the only clout he will have will be his endorsement, and that will be pretty insignificant at that point.

I do think Sanders is going to stay in until the end. No career politician drops out when they are pulling in huge sums of money. Money is now his power.

Biden: Biden is about to go down to what we have been referring to as second tier candidates. Interestingly enough, considering the front-runner status he has held, that will really just bring more candidates up to the first tier.

This is about optics. Sanders heart attack is going to hurt Biden. It will make people second guess him as a choice. Image is everything. The tactic Trump is using will also have a great impact on Biden. It doesn't matter if people know it is fake or not. People don't want to go into the general with a candidate surrounded by controversy and scandal, and Biden is surrounded by both. His name is in the papers every single day and is attached to Trump. He is being cleared left and right but the coverage is still there. At the present time, I think people are completely done with "but her emails." That is too recent history.

Biden's fundraising haul wasn't all that good. It paints a picture at a time when he is getting hit from every angle.

We now have candidate after candidate, elected official after elected official, coming out to support Biden against Trump. Many are almost doing so more powerfully than Biden himself. Again, back to optics. People are even clamoring for others to come out and fight for Biden. While that should be expected, it doesn't paint a pretty picture. It portrays him as a seventy something year old man who needs help in a fight. People should stop that narrative. Specially when demanding other candidates jump in more forcefully. It has the image of Biden being weak and it is going to hurt him.

"He can beat Trump is not a good slogan." It is based off of so little and all people have to do is put a ding in that one piece of armor. Either by creating doubt or by others polling close to him in head to head match-ups with Trump. This narrative has been built up so much that many people don't think of Biden as someone presenting policy. More that he is simply someone taking on Trump.

Biden's only saving grace will be in an absolute drag out fight for delegates. How many can he get? He is polling great in some states. I think over the next two weeks we are going to see a pretty big dip in his polling. It's still going to leave him in the delegate hunt for those states. I don't think Biden is going to crater like Sanders who will not realize many delegates by the end of the process.



While I have great respect and admiration for many politicians, I don't do the fan club thing. Biden is one of my favorites but I can fully see what is happening and understand the impact of optics in politics. I think Biden has had a great career and if he goes down it won't bother me. He is a great guy and will be just fine in life. I would probably feel differently if we didn't have such a solid field.

My list of ones to watch:

Warren
Harris
Buttigieg
Klobuchar


While Warren will become the clear front runner over the next two weeks, look for the field to become closer as Biden and Sanders supporters shift to other candidates. Warren will be a great front runner but there seems to be a bit of nervousness with many who are eyeing her.

That's what I think.

[beachbumbob]

1. biden is not going anywhere my friend

and little focus has been placed on Warren yet by the media. Her message does not resonate with the center and MAIN voting block of democrats

[TidalWave46]

3. I disagree.

We are seeing that he isn't holding front runner status as he was. I believe that is now only going to get worse. His front runner status is already in question and that alone was a big part of the success of his campaign.

[emmaverybo]

12. Which polls show Biden no longer the front-runner? Please cite support for your claim that his

front-runner status is in question. What polls I have seen do show Warren leading by a point to two points in New Hampshire and Iowa, but recent Morning Consult poll shows Biden still leading with 32 percent of likely Democratic voters.

[brooklynite]

78. Here...

https://www.investors.com/politics/americans-back-trump-impeachment-ukraine-scandal-biden-probe/

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_US_100219/

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/eb2rrb9ofh/econTabReport.pdf

[emmaverybo]

89. The investors link concerning TIPP poll contains speculation, but does not show Biden as no longer

the front runner. Monmouth shows him a few points now behind Warren, though recent Morning Consult shows him holding the lead. I can not make out the info in the last link though I am sure others here can. So a mixed picture. But thank you for posting. You may have a whole different
take on what the data says.

[beachbumbob]

42. Where in Iowa and NH? The delegate count is minsicule. People who live in bubbles, especially

those at the outer edges whether liberal or conservative discount the center and what we think and do. What works on east coast and west coast liberals don't play all that well in the areas inbetween.

[DemocracyMouse]

48. Wait... I'm in the center and I LOVE 💕 Warren!

By center I mean rock hard sensible. Rational. Respects people with well-researched plans. Thinks of America as a balance of free enterprise and democratic oversight. The center. And it's what the center always has been, traditionally. We're in both a Blue Wave and a beautiful re-centering wave. Biden was too far to the right. Elizabeth, who I LOVE 💕 💕, is right smack in the golden center.

[lambchopp59]

11. I'm curious

Exactly which part of restoring an ethical judiciary, imposing tax on excessive lobbying groups, empowering workers and raising minimum wages, ending private prisons, clean energy and green manufacturing, affordable higher education and improvements in military housing doesn't resonate with Democrats?

[True Dough]

51. Well stated!

Warren's no radical.

[Thekaspervote]

35. Oh so true!!

[brooklynite]

77. based on the data, where he's going is apparently down...

...gradually, but consistently.

https://projects.economist.com/democratic-primaries-2020/

It would appear that, absent a change, Warren's line will pass him in November.

[Celerity]

106. this shows you are correct

I find the HarrisX and Morning Consult polls to be outliers, much of it to do with heir methodology (they use the same group (self-selecting in HarrisX's case, and also some are rewarded to participate) day after day


also

Biden's lead (in the A- rated IBD poll) over Rump has been almost cut in half since August, Warren's in half too

https://www.investors.com/politics/elizabeth-warren-overtakes-joe-biden-democratic-presidential-nomination-race/






Also troubling is this (and bear in mind I think Biden is more electable than Warren, and Warren gives Rump a far easier shot to win reelection.)



Joe Biden Caught In Ukraine Crossfire

Joe Biden's election prospects appeared to take a hit from allegations hurled by Trump that are at the center of the House Democrats' impeachment probe. A loose transcript of a July 25 call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed a whistleblower's claim that Trump asked him to investigate Biden and son Hunter's dealings in the country in 2016.

The October IBD/TIPP Poll found 57%-37% support for a Justice Department investigation of Biden and his son regarding their actions in Ukraine and China.

By comparison, Americans supported the House impeachment inquiry, 55%-44%. Half of Americans said Trump's Ukraine actions are an impeachable offense, vs. 46% who say they are not. Still, Trump's job approval rating rose 4 points to 43%, even as his biggest political scandal erupted.

[Thekaspervote]

116. Trump Biden Ukraine narrative isn't moving Democratic voters

Trump's Biden-Ukraine Narrative Isn't Moving Democratic Voters

https://morningconsult.com/2019/10/02/trumps-biden-ukraine-narrative-isnt-moving-democratic-voters/

• 55% of Democratic voters said Hunter Biden’s ties to Burisma Holdings would have no impact on their vote in 2020.

•32% of Democratic primary voters back the former vice president as their first-choice candidate, unchanged since mid-September.

• 41% of Democratic voters said Biden has the best chance to beat Trump, unchanged since a poll conducted after the Houston

[Celerity]

118. HarrisX and Morning Consult are outlier polls with poor methodology nt

[Tiggeroshii]

79. He has already gone further from where he started.

It's only a matter of how much more he will go.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

2. If that happens, expect one or two to break free of the pack and challenge Warren.

What you say might happen, and you make some excellent points.

Candidates, be kind to Biden. He is the elder statesman and is currently Taking One For The Team like a real warrior.

The tRump-Republicon strategy and tactic is to repetitively smear the target repetitively with lots of repetition, 60/24/7/12. By drawing their fire, Biden is absorbing negative associations, which means that the T-Rs are not repetitively spending that amount of time repeatedly on another Democrat.

Besides, Biden might well survive to be the candidate and would be a fine Democratic President.

The Democrat 2020.

[TidalWave46]

4. I agree with this.

"Besides, Biden might well survive to be the candidate and would be a fine Democratic President."

I don't view any of what I wrote as a shot at Biden or Sanders. It's just how I see the race at the moment. I appreciate you recognizing that.

I normally like to make predictions in politics. It's fun.

"If that happens, expect one or two to break free of the pack and challenge Warren."

I fully agree with this but don't even really have an educated guess as to who it will be. Someone is going to make the right waves at the right time. They will take advantage of an opening.

[blm]

8. That's where I am at. Not shooting at any of the candidates. Should

Biden be the nominee he will be relying on other candidates to be his spokespeople on camera and rally for him. Credibility is a factor.

It’s wrongheaded to attack any of them. I wish people could see that. There are several folks here who jump at any chance to attack candidates with claims that they can’t win against Trump or other such silliness.

[Demsrule86]

24. There are at least three threads right now attacking Biden by Warren supporters,

and the thing is Warren will not be the nominee as she doesn't connect with AA voters...a very important Democratic constituency. I would expect Harris to emerge should Biden not be in the primary. Also Harris move a bit to the middle...thus might have shot in the general... might I say. However, I still believe Biden will and should be the nominee. we have our best opportunity in the general with him.

[Thekaspervote]

117. Agree!!

[emulatorloo]

80. "It's wrongheaded to attack any of them. I wish people could see that. "

BLM, thank you for saying that. We need to stand behind all these candidates, we need to go into the GE unified and ready to fight.

[UncleNoel]

5. The Report of Biden's Demise has been Exagerated

This is a wish fulfillment, not a statement based on facts. Biden still leads and the WI and SC polls show his strength. Sorry to throw cold water on your theory, but Biden ain't going anywhere but up.

[TidalWave46]

7. I haven't read many reports of his demise.

It's also not a wish of mine.

[UncleNoel]

33. Tongue in cheek refering to this post.

But there have been articles tending in that direction despite the plain facts.

[Sherman A1]

6. Things will shake themselves out as they must do

I however disagree with your assessment and frankly it is far too early to tell.

[TidalWave46]

9. It's really no longer early. NT

[Sherman A1]

15. I disagree

Just like Christmas season has been pushed forward gobbling up Thanksgiving, Halloween and soon Labor Day so had the Primary Season.


The size of the Democratic field and the Media "Horse Race" hype are creating an impression that this all has to be decided right now and frankly it doesn't and it won't be.

[TidalWave46]

18. I don't think it all has to be decided right now.

Sounds pretty foolish and if you read my op you would see it argues directly against that thought.

[Sherman A1]

54. But

You just stated in your response that it is not too early?

Pardon my confusion......

[TidalWave46]

55. I'm not sure why you are confused.

The conversation seems pretty straight forward. I don't think it's too early to discuss the primaries. You then comment about how it doesn't have to be decided right now. Two completely different things. I've never insinuated anything needs to be decided right now. I think it's close enough to voting to recognize trends and to talk about them. That has nothing to do with making any kind of immediate decision. Doesn't even have anything to do with decision making.

[FM123]

27. I agree with you Sherman A1

[brush]

10. You might be right about Sanders because of the heart attack but Biden is not going anywhere.

His African American support is still strong and the only polls that really mean anything are the primaries. Iowa and NH are both 95% white and don't reflect the diversity of the Democratic Party. South Carolina's primary and the closely following primaries on Super Tuesday, with all their diverse constituencies, will reveal who is really the front runner for the nomination.

Best to stay tuned until then. The media hypes polls but like I said, the primaries are the real polls.

[TidalWave46]

13. The primaries aren't the real polls.

The polls are the real polls. They are really good to look at if you understand them. Even Biden has been using them as a part of his campaign tactic.

"Best to stay tuned until then."

No doubt about that.

[brush]

16. Polls are not votes and can easily be manipulated by pollsters with agendas. Only votes are votes.

[TidalWave46]

19. I've never argued to the contrary. NT

[TwilightZone]

14. Posters have been predicting Biden's "imminent" demise for months now.

I think it's a bit of wishful thinking for supporters of other candidates (not to mention, Donald Trump).

There doesn't seem to be much evidence or basis for the assertion at the moment.

[TidalWave46]

17. I have never predicted his demise before.

He is one of my favorite candidates.

I think the evidence is mounting and some are ignoring it. You call one claim "wishful thinking" and then claim there doesn't seem to be evidence. That is closer to wishful thinking.

I also don't see where I "predicted his imminent demise."

[Demsrule86]

20. Just another hit piece on Biden...more wishful thinking...how about this. Warren

can't be our nominee...she can't connect with AA voters. I would expect Harris to pull ahead if Biden is out.

[TidalWave46]

22. I don't see this as a hit piece on Biden.

Nor is it wishful thinking.

[LanternWaste]

23. That's your story and you're stickin' to it!

[TidalWave46]

26. Pretty easy to stick to. Really straight forward.

Question my character all you want. Really doesn't bother me.

[Demsrule86]

68. I see it as both.

[TidalWave46]

71. That is your thought to hold.

Not sure how one could see it as a hit on Biden but many now call themselves "fans" and not "supporters."

[emulatorloo]

82. That is not correct, no supporters of a candidate call themselves "fans"

“Fans” is a derogatory term used by supporters of one candidate to belittle the supporters of another candidate.

Welcome to DU, thanks for the thoughtful original post.

[58Sunliner]

25. Why can't Warren connect with AA voters?

Will AA voters not support a white woman? Her policies would benefit them. Of all the candidates she would probably benefit them the most. She supports federal legalization of pot, criminal justice reform. economic policies that would support working mothers, taxes etc...
So what does Biden support? Not pot reform, never heard about justice reform, etc... Biden has some of the most regressive stances of any candidate out there.

[Demsrule86]

45. I have no idea why...maybe because over the years she never reached out and now they

simply don't believe she would do much for them...or maybe they think she loses...or maybe Biden was there for years for them unlike Warren...but she is not getting the support...as for pot legalization and criminal reform...linking those issues to being Black is kind of a racist meme.... I wouldn't do that if I were her.

[58Sunliner]

86. Linking those issues is a statistical reality.

Black males are more likely to be stopped and searched and criminalized for pot possession. Harsher sentences, etc.. Decriminalization would get rid of the burdens on our system as well. Job opportunities improve, etc... Free the police to look for real criminals. Not to mention job growth.

[Demsrule86]

97. AA voters I know personally...want the same things we want and resent being

associated with crime and drugs...that is a fact too. You know they care about education and such...taxes ...all the usual. If Warren tries to appeal to them in the way you suggest...they will view her as clueless IMHO.

[progressoid]

58. Warren gets 'dramatic shift' in support from black voters

https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/02/elizabeth-warren-black-voters-support-2020-016649

One element of Elizabeth Warren’s surge in the polls is likely to strike fear in her top Democratic rivals — her rising support among African Americans.

After struggling to win over black voters in the early stages of the primary, the Massachusetts senator appears to be gaining ground with a demographic that will play a pivotal role in determining the nomination.

A Quinnipiac University national poll last week showed Warren winning 19 percent of the African American vote — a 9-point jump over the poll’s August results. In the latest Morning Consult poll, released Wednesday, she’s up by 5 percentage points with black voters since August.

Those advances have played a role in her surging overall numbers, which have seen Warren expand her lead over the African American candidates in the primary — Sens. Kamala Harris and Cory Booker — and even overtake Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders in some state and national polls.

“It’s certainly a dramatic shift that had to be noticed by the Biden campaign — and also Sanders, Harris and Buttigieg,” said Tim Malloy, Qunnipiac’s polling analyst. “Other [candidates] aren’t moving. And if they are, it’s in the wrong direction.”

[Demsrule86]

70. The polls wasn't there that showed that...many of us looked.Thus, it was debunked.

Sorry to disappoint you.

[progressoid]

83. So Biden didn't go down 6 pts while Warren went up 9 with Black voters since August?

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3638

https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us09252019_umpj13.pdf/

[Demsrule86]

98. Actually no...I would sugest you look at those polls closely.

[progressoid]

120. Hmm...OK...looking...

August 28, 2019

2. (If Democrat or Democratic leaner) If the Democratic primary for president were being held today, and the candidates were: Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Beto O'Rourke, Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker, Kirsten Gillibrand, Amy Klobuchar, Julian Castro, Tulsi Gabbard, John Delaney, Pete Buttigieg, Andrew Yang, Marianne Williamson, Wayne Messam, Tim Ryan, Michael Bennet, Steve Bullock, Bill de Blasio, Joe Sestak, and Tom Steyer, for whom would you vote?

Biden 32% 15% 29% 41% 32% 32% 30% 46% 29% 30%

Warren 19 34 23 13 18 20 23 10 25 20

Same question on Sept 25, 2019:

2. (If Democrat or Democratic leaner) If the Democratic primary for president were being held today, and the candidates were: Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Beto O'Rourke, Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker, Amy Klobuchar, Julian Castro, Tulsi Gabbard, John Delaney, Pete Buttigieg, Andrew Yang, Marianne Williamson, Wayne Messam, Tim Ryan, Michael Bennet, Steve Bullock,Joe Sestak, and Tom Steyer, for whom would you vote?

Biden 25% 13% 19% 31% 23% 26% 23% 40% 20% 27%

Warren 27 36 30 21 27 26 33 19 37 26

The bolded numbers represent Black voters. From August to September: Biden -6, Warren+9 with Black voters.

[58Sunliner]

84. That's hopeful. I don't know who I prefer, but my options are open.

Whoever it is, ultimately, I will work for. I do think she will do what she proposes.

[emmaverybo]

103. She will have to get Congress behind her. She will have to build consensus beyond the progressive

minority in our own party, and beyond our party. The investment of political capital will be tremendous. No one can do all she has proposed. She is also going to have one heck of a mop up
job. Two terms could be spent on that alone. The foreign policy and relations matters will be daunting, that mess alone.

[58Sunliner]

21. If you think Harris has a chance -

think again. She is polling at @ 8% in CA. That is brutal. I didn't think DT would survive, but roaches always do. I'm not worried about Biden's health.
Of course they are nervous with Warren. She is a woman who puts the interests of working America first. I worry about sexism and misogyny.

[TidalWave46]

28. I think Harris probably has the smallest chance out of the four I mentioned.

But she is bold and has a solid team around her. That is why I kept her in the mix.

[mikeysnot]

29. Sanders was already on a downward trajectory.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/01/us/politics/bernie-sanders-fundraising.html

Senator Bernie Sanders raised $25.3 million in the past three months, his campaign said on Tuesday, a total that continues to demonstrate his strength with small donors as he fights to maintain support in key early-voting states.

The financial haul, among the first that a candidate has announced for the third quarter, will place Mr. Sanders in the top tier of the field for fund-raising.

It is also a much-needed boost for his campaign, as it looks to move past a summer slump that coincided with staff shake-ups in New Hampshire and Iowa and a slip in some polls in early-voting states. And it will perhaps help quell the narrative that his campaign is in decline.

[left-of-center2012]

30. Uh, no

"Biden is about to fall"?
Seriously?


Of your list of ones to watch (Warren, Harris, Buttigieg, Klobuchar)
only Warren is going up in polls.

Harris is losing in polls of her home state.
I love Mayor Pete, for VP or Gov of Indiana.
Klobuchar? You've got to be kidding?

[TidalWave46]

32. Yes, I am serious about Biden. We are already seeing the trend.

Emoticons won't stop it though they do seem to make some people feel better.

[Thekaspervote]

36. The trend in polls the last couple of days all give Biden a double digit lead

[TidalWave46]

40. 9/26 - 10/3

IBD/Tipp

Warren 27
Biden 26
Sanders 10

9/28 - 10/1
Economist/YouGov

Warren 28
Biden 22
Sanders 13

9/23 - 9/29
Monmouth

Warren 28
Biden 25
Sanders 15

9/23 - 9/29
Politico/Morning Consult

Biden 32
Warren 21
Sander 19

[LanternWaste]

65. Cherry picking means picking ONLY the data which supports an hypothesis.

Did you know that?

I'm sure it's merely a coincidence that's precisely what you're doing.

But I'd probably try and force the evidence to fit a conclusion too if I believed 2+2=22.

[TidalWave46]

66. Did you know that those are the current top polls at RCP. I took them in order as displayed.

The exact opposite of your erroneous claim of cherry picking.

You should consider not attacking people when you aren't educated on your own line of attack.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

LanternWaste (33,763 posts)

65. Cherry picking means picking ONLY the data which supports an hypothesis.

Did you know that?

I'm sure it's merely a coincidence that's precisely what you're doing.

But I'd probably try and force the evidence to fit a conclusion too if I believed 2+2=22.

When one feels the need to be so nasty that any consideration of truth goes out the window, they should probably check their worldview.

You comment is neither accurate or reasonable.

[Demsrule86]

72. Those polls were cherry picked for Warren's benefit...wait for it...when the media

is shown to be wrong once again about Biden...wasting your time.

[TidalWave46]

74. RCP cherry picked polls for Warrens benefit?

Very interesting conspiracy. I don't think it is accurate but maybe you have something to back up your claim.

[Demsrule86]

46. I have seen no such trend...the polls that are valid and have pollsters without a Warren

agenda show Biden winning...and he has broken the 50% AA vote in the South which means...he sweeps the south, the Mid West and western states as well.

[Gothmog]

91. There's only one person who can turn Ohio blue

Link to tweet

[njhoneybadger]

31. I hope your wrong because Biden is our best candidate to win swing states

[TidalWave46]

34. This is one of my reasons for having Biden at the top of my list.

I do think he will have the best shot in a number of swing states. I also think that narrative is going to be going away over the next three months.

[Demsrule86]

47. No it won't-the GOP will win if Biden is not the candidate...I am convinced none of our candidates

other than Bide to date will win the three states we need...WI, PA and MI. I would vote for any Democratic nominee of course.

[TidalWave46]

50. That doesn't make any sense.

But I also didn’t think Geithner was the only one who could head up the fed(yes, that was a narrative that was pushed).

If Biden is the only one who can win then we have already lost. Polls also seem to disagree with you.

[emmaverybo]

56. Latest polling shows Biden with 7 points on Trump, Warren with 2, behind Sanders with 4, and

Harris as tied.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/general_election/

[TidalWave46]

57. Thank you for that. NT

[Demsrule86]

67. It makes perfect sense when you consider that Trump will go for an

electoral college win and need only three states...WI, PA and MI. He can take too and win in the house too.

[TidalWave46]

69. He doesn't only need three states.

That is a highly inaccurate description being used to back up a position that is not reflected in reality. That Biden is "the only one" position.

[Demsrule86]

73. He will hold the states he won in 16...which are deep red...but the blue

Wall states are up for grabs and it is accurate.

[TidalWave46]

76. The three states argument isn't "accurate."

It is simply a part of a larger discussion with many moving pieces. It cannot be defined as "accurate" because it is at best a guess. Just like my op.

Accurate is not an accurate word to use when making such an argument.

[Rstrstx]

115. What about the purple/pink states?

After the 3 blue "rebel states" I think AZ, IA, FL, NC, GA, OH and possibly TX are up for grabs, in roughly that order. The two swing states that went for Clinton in 2016 (NV and NH) should be winnable again.

[Demsrule86]

123. I would not count on any of those states....every election we think they will turn but the don't.

the blue wall states are our easiest and likely only path to victory...not just this year but in future presidential elections. Go to the interactive sites and see what we need should Trump win the blue wall states... and the likelyhood of getting the states we need ...it will make you think about who should be our candidate and who can kick Trump to the curb

When we lost Ohio and Florida and I don't know if we will carry either in 20, with Warren we surely won't, we still had a path with VA and the blue wall states. Now we don't and that is a huge loss and endangers our ability to win a presidential election for the next decade if we don't reverse this.

And you do understand that a perceived moderate candidate might get some but not all of those states, but a progressives candidate will not do so. We could lose the house and the presidency...my nightmare.

[Gothmog]

92. Biden is the only candidate who is ahead of trump outside margin of error

Link to tweet

[TidalWave46]

93. That is one state.

Hate to ever say anything positive about them but fox puts out good polls.

[Gothmog]

94. That is one of the key states that we need to flip

If the Democratic nominee beats trump in Wisconsin, then trump will have a hard or impossible time winning

[TidalWave46]

95. Except for one election we have won it since 84.

There are plenty of ways to get there. It should be a state we win. It’s not the only path. I don’t think I am downplaying it’s importance. It should be ours.

[Gothmog]

99. Without Wisconsin, trump will have a hard time

That makes Wisconsin a battleground state which is why it is important

[ritapria]

37. Bernie is headed to the "Bottom Tier" ?

Tied with John Delaney, Marianne Williamson, ?

[FloridaBlues]

41. Wishful thinking tidal wave.

[TidalWave46]

43. No wishful thinking here.

Seems that is the go-to reply. Completely lacks context as a reply.

Biden is one of my favorite candidates.

[Bayard]

44. If tRump is allowed to oust Biden with lies,

It will be another tragedy for this country. Whoever tops the polls from there can expect plenty of lies to be manufactured about them.

tRump has no other playbook, except for Russia pulling off another "win" for him.

[TidalWave46]

49. Trump has nothing else.

Yes, political rivals going after a single individual with lies has an impact. It’s not about “allowing” something to happen.

[Demsrule86]

75. But but but...it helps Warren so it is OK to team up with GOP nonsense.

[Baked Potato]

52. "Controversy and Scandal" is what Trump does

Every front runner will get slimed by the Trump/Parscale machine. They will manufacture scandals and controversies forever. So, for me, all Democrats have a Teflon coating.

[Gothmog]

53. Biden is not going anywhere

Link to tweet

[TidalWave46]

62. I don't think he is going anywhere.

I think he numbers are going to drop dramatically.

[Gothmog]

63. Poll: Biden holds 24-point lead over Democratic field among black voters

Link to tweet

Former Vice President Joe Biden is the top pick among black voters, with a 24 point lead over his closest competitor in the 2020 Democratic primary field, according to a new poll.

A Hill-HarrisX survey found that 36 percent of registered black voters said they want Biden to be the party's nominee, followed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) with 12 percent support.

No other candidate received double-digit support. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) tied for third place, garnering 8 percent each.

[TidalWave46]

64. Solid lead with a very important subset of voters.

It will also be the last subset to shift away from him, IMO.

A majority of black voters are supporting other candidates. Then there are 12% undecided.

Not sure I would be hanging my hat on that at this point. Don’t even see how it is an argument about what I’m presenting in the op.

[onetexan]

59. as Biden would say, buncha melarky

[honest.abe]

60. Biden's lock on SC and the south in general is his firewall.

Latest polls have him up in SC big due to his huge margins with black voters. Until that changes Biden is in the drivers seat.

[TidalWave46]

61. Very very hard to disagree with this in any way.

It is the whole reason why I feel Biden will continue to be in the delegate grind even after/if he slips.

[Lib 4 Life]

107. which is wild when you consider none of those states will go for biden or any democrat

in the GE. Just like Clinton. the system is fucked up.

[honest.abe]

110. I guess you dont understand the purpose of the primary process.

All Democratic primary voters in all states are allowed to participate in selecting the nominee. Would you prefer we throw out states in the South??

[Lib 4 Life]

111. i guess I'm right. if these states aren't going to even have a chance to elect a democrat

(let's go by voting history) then why include them in picking the democratic nominee. makes no sense.

[honest.abe]

112. Clearly you are confused about the primary process.

Google it. That might help you.

[wasupaloopa]

113. There are Democrats in every state. They have a voice

[treestar]

81. Yet another daily earth-shattering, surging, major shift

More dramatic changes! Except not.

[BlueMTexpat]

85. I really think that it is too early

to predict what will happen with any of our top tier candidates.

And even with some of those in the next tier.

But I think that most in the 2% and below levels should really begin dusting off their resumes for something else. JMO.

[TidalWave46]

87. While my thoughts on Biden moving forward...

Are based off of little more than reading tea leaves, I’m very confident about the direction of Sanders. That said I am pretty confident about my thoughts on Biden. Please note I am not predicting his complete demise.

[BlueMTexpat]

88. I think that you are probably more

correct about Sanders than about Biden. Yet anyway.

A heart attack + being 78 are VERY hard to come back from. And then there are other factors that were already trending downwards.

[Gothmog]

90. Biden continues to perform better than Warren in head-to-head match-ups against Trump

Link to tweet

[corbettkroehler]

96. 1 Million Calls To Voters AFTER Sanders' Heart Attack

It seems that someone has lost track of arithmetic. Elections are about number. Pretend for a moment that 0% of the voters contacted by Sanders volunteers were swayed. Even then, we're still talking about a yuge number of volunteers whose enthusiasm is on full tilt MONTHS before the first caucuses and primaries and knowing full well that Bernie had a heart attack (for which his two emergency cardiologists declared that only one artery was affected and the others were normal.).

As the focus turns back to Bernie's policy proposals, his record-setting momentum, shattering his own fundraising numbers in September, WILL GROW, not wane.

The simple truth is this: for weeks upon weeks, Bernie bashers have proclaimed here on DU that the Sanders campaign was in decline. Then, Bernie out raised VP Biden by $10 million in 2019Q3 without a single black-tie fundraiser, blowing past his own 2016 numbers when the primary field was tiny by comparison.

It's about math.

[cwydro]

100. I wouldn't count Biden out just yet, but you make excellent points.

I found all the calls here for the defense of Biden perplexing. It does make him look weak if his supporters all think he needs defending. I started out as a strong Biden supporter, but sadly came to the conclusion that he just isn’t up to it, on a number of levels.

He’s perfectly capable of defending himself, and he should do so. The other side hasn’t even STARTED with the crap they can throw at him. It’s going to be very ugly.

Hunter is going to cost his father dearly. We can complain all we like about him being dragged into this, but we do the same thing, even with young children, which sickens me.

I agree with all your points regarding some of the other candidates making a break for it. And I’d pick the same you did.

[Gothmog]

101. Donald Trump has abused the foreign policy of the United States to extract personal, political favor

Link to tweet

[Lib 4 Life]

102. i don't agree with the timeline but completely agree with your overall assessment.

Especially with buttigieg and warren.

[RazBerryBeret]

104. meh...

won't argue, but keep in mind, the American Public LOVES the underdog.

[sharedvalues]

105. Absolutely true. Also: Bernie for Sec of Labor

[mahina]

108. You may be right but it sucks.

Good health and quick recovery Bernie.
Go get that SOB Joe.

I love all our people, every one, and will fight for whomever gets the nom.

[TidalWave46]

121. I really like the field.

Unlike many past elections, I feel we have a number of people running who would be excellent at the helm.

Some have thrown out the term “wishful thinking” on my part. They couldn’t be more wrong. I think Biden would probably be one of the best at restoring government agencies and rebuilding respect among our allies and adversaries.

The op is simply my view of where things stand and the direction I see them going.

[LakeArenal]

109. Go Joe....

I’m 100% with you.

[ecstatic]

114. What about Booker?

I think Warren can seal the deal but she must drop Bernie's healthcare plan as soon as possible. As in, tomorrow.

On the other hand, if some democrats have already given up on our top tier--Biden, Sanders, and Warren--then the next group to watch will be Harris, Beto, Booker, and maybe Pete. They are the remaining "stars." I think the book might be closed on Pete, at this point. Everyone likes him and loves his articulateness, but there's a question of electability that hasn't been resolved. Harris has already been swiftboated among people of color (mainly 45 and under). That leaves Beto and Booker.

If Warren tweaks her healthcare plan, it could be Warren and Booker. If not, it may end up being Beto and Booker in any order.

[lambchopp59]

119. Excellent banter in this thread, a testament to the Dem voter base debate process

Quite amusingly proving the adage "achieving agreement among Democrats is like herding cats", hopefully tremendously to our intellectual advantage (even against the... cough... "stable genius"...LOL) processing out, weighing options in a crowded field of candidates to distill the most likely candidate to win.
Now I'm going to state something a bit inflammatory: The Uglicans are tremendously busy redrawing districts, creating underhanded plans of every sort to rig the electoral college to become an uglier victory (heaven forbid, yet frighteningly possible) with a tremendously wider margin of popular vote disparity in 2020. Nauseating as the aspect may seem, we must pull a number of previous Trump voters (those with a few more than 30 active neurons firing at a time, anyway) our way, and Biden won't achieve that. I'll predict that there are more than a few who feel cut short of their expectations, and even a few absolute morons who expected Trump's words of "We're all going to be very rich" as their personal prospective lottery win may finally come around, empty pockets renders "promises made, promises kept" equally bereft of prospect.
It goes without saying that the die-hard Fux Noise faithful MAGA's will never budge. Screw em. I see the decrepit group that have Fox Noise blaring exclusively, daily in my hospital employment. I've lost count now how many have moved on to another blessed plane of existence. Buh, bye.
One common thread among both of more reasonable groups of aforementioned Trumpers: they voted Frump guh'cause he was an "outsider" who would bring change... that never came about excepting the most grievous aspects. They heard "drain the swamp"... duh, sounds good... then heard Trump himself say that was only rhetoric. And a few voted for the TV star, who has now turned so bitter, so partisan, so braying jackass, so senseless. I'd also speculate quite a number were Obama voters who ( ) went for tRump.
And they are a relatively silent percentage now nearly as numbed to the inane narrative as ourselves.
They're still looking for change, not "restore normalcy". These few aren't totally sold on the partisan divide, aren't convinced by the "anti-socialism" diatribe and realize the public infrastructure is still suffering a lag.
A second group we need: the youth vote. They desperately wanted Bernie, most tend to despise Trump, a few are confused, disgusted by Trump's prior "You're fired!!!" show that was nonsense to them as children, and can barely afford the WallyWall's cheap hot dogs to live on. This represents a desperate group of youth, who will only be motivated by more than rhetoric: they want policy, they want social justice, they want a chance.
I read repeatedly the rather inexorable "Nope, sorry, Biden the only option" from the Biden faithful here and other similarly "Wait, hold on, here's an option" debate threads, containing the same "Biden hit piece" accusations. Exactly the same mistake we made 3 years ago, a mistake we can't afford, a lukewarm, "centrist" candidate who won't pull nearly enough of the aforementioned outliers our way. Please be open to the possibilities when so many exist, don't discount the largely emotional decision making of great numbers of citizens under-represented, silent in the polls except the one that counts: November 3rd, 2020. I won't accept this paragraph as being labelled "Biden hit piece", and admit to this being a bit of a hit piece to shake up the Biden-only faithful. Please, quit trying to stifle and stagnate our debate process.
Now the obligatory disclaimer: Yes, I'll vote Biden if it comes down to that, I don't have tremendous objections to him, quite the opposite. But excited? Hopeful for change? Hoping my social security retirement will be slightly more than the cheap dogs again in the end.
Nope. He doesn't inspire me. "Return to normalcy", not enough.
Our inside debate continues, let it! It maintains a fair equanimity, as a good judge would debate the possibilities extensively with some feeling but with largely weighing the facts, just as the of the above thread demonstrates remarkably.
We have the time.

[TidalWave46]

122. One major flaw in your analysis.

Last edited Tue Oct 8, 2019, 09:52 AM - Edit history (1)

I don’t see how redistricting plays any role in the electoral college. The redrawing of districts has been devastating but it mainly gains advantages in the house. One cannot change the overall population of a state(electoral college) by way of redistributing.

[lambchopp59]

124. Given, yet it's only one of the potions in their bag of tricks

Dateline: November 5th, 1968, Dallas, Texas. I was a bit precocious 8 year old riding in the back of my parent's station wagon on the expressway, when both my older brothers began laughing at massive flooding that Republican henchmen caused by opening up numerous fire hydrants overnight. It isolated one of the largely black neighborhoods for the day. When I asked them why they thought this was funny, they gave me my earliest lesson in "undesirable voter" suppression that astounded me.
It seems like we have returned to those tumultuous time frames, hopefully only as an aberration.