BTRTN 2020 Vision: Warren Soars, Blows to Bernie and Biden...and an Opening for Pete?

[reggieandlee]

Born To Run The Numbers provides its latest comprehensive monthly update on the status of the 2020 Presidential Race:

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/10/btrtn-2020-vision-warren-soars-blows-to.html

Excerpts: "Biden continues to lead in the national polls, still holding at roughly 30% of Democrats, but Elizabeth Warren made a huge jump, now alone in second place and closing fast on Biden.
...The first three 'early states' – Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada – are now all very close races. Warren is slightly ahead in Iowa, more so in New Hampshire and Nevada is a three-way tie.
...Biden continues to dominate South Carolina, the only early state with a strong African-American presence, his strongest demographic and his 'firewall.'
...Bernie Sanders suffered a heart attack while on the road, bringing the age of all three leading candidates into sharp focus; Sanders, while sidelined, lost some ground nationally and in Iowa.

Two emerging stories have gone largely unreported: (1) The rise of Pete Buttigieg in Iowa. The ground reports on Pete in the Hawkeye State have been glowing for months, but none of that turned into poll momentum until this past month, when three separate polls had him in double digits and catching up to Sanders. If Mayor Pete is able to snag a top three spot in the Iowa caucus, that would be a significant development. (2) Super Tuesday. With everyone focused on Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina, no one has been focused on the true prize. The early states have 155 delegates at stake, but Super Tuesday has 1,255. If Biden can survive the first three contests and win South Carolina (where he continues to lead), he is well positioned for a delegate haul on Super Tuesday."

[emmaverybo]

1. "Biden continues to lead in the national polls."

[patricia92243]

2. All the pundits were ecstatic with Pete's performance during the debate. The

press seems to like him and if he pulls off Iowa, we will be hearing from him big time.

[tgards79]

3. All he really needs is Top Three in Iowa

That would vault him into top tier....

[quickesst]

4. From the OP's link....

""With everyone focused on Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina, no one has been focused on the true prize. The early states have 155 delegates at stake, but Super Tuesday has 1,255. If Biden can survive the first three contests and win South Carolina (where he continues to lead), he is well positioned for a delegate haul on Super Tuesday."

[ritapria]

5. Morning Consult did a 1 day poll - Yesterday

Biden 31% Warren 21% Bernie 18%

[tgards79]

7. What does a "1-day poll" mean?

[brush]

6. Agreed. Way too much weight is given to nearly all-white Iowa and NH. SC will be the...

turning point as there is an electorate more reflective of the diversity of our party and Biden will most likely win there. Then, as you say comes Super Tuesday and I'm betting Biden will have a bigger delegate haul than anyone else after all the shouting is done.