With a due resect, Warren is NOT the new frontrunner!

[UncleNoel]

This is the new meme being splashed across the internet and MSM. Warren's rise was spetaculor and her organization excellent, but in fact she does not command the lead. While we do not have post-debate polls rolling in, the following is how it stands now.

Nationally

link:https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html|RCP Average]:

Biden 29.9, Warren 23.4, Sanders 15

Early Primary States:

Iowa (RCP: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-6731.html):

RCP Average: 9/14-10/16: Biden 21.7, Warren22.3 Sanders 15, Buttigieg 13.0. Tie

Emerson College 10/13-16: Biden 22, Warren 22, Sanders 13, Buttigieg 16,
CBS/YouGov 10/3-11 : Biden 22, Warren 22, Sanders 21, Buttigieg 14
DM Register/CNN 9/14-18: Biden 20, Warren 22, Sanders 11, Buttigieg 9

A virtual tie between Biden and Warren (Sanders close behind; Buttigieg rising. Let's say Biden and Warren co-frontrunners.


New Hampshire RCP: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-6276.html:

RCP Average 9/25-10/13: Warren 27.3, Biden 24, Sanders 16.7, Buttigieg 8.7. Warren +3.3

Boston Herald/FPU 10/9-13: Warren 25, Biden 24, Sanders 22, Buttigieg 9. Warren +1
CBS News/YouGov 10/3-11: Warren 32, Biden 24, Sanders 17, Buttigieg 4 Warren +8
St. Anselm 9/25-29: Warren 25, Biden 24, Sanders 1, Buttigieg 10.

Warren a 3 point lead due to the CBS/YouGov poll. Otherwise a virtual tie.

South Carolina. RCP: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/sc/south_carolina_democratic_presidential_primary-6824.html

RCP Average: 9/21-10/11: Biden 38.8, Warren 14.0, Sanders 11.0. Biden +24.8

CBS News/GYouGov 10/3-11: Biden 43, Warren 18, Sanders 16.
Gravis 10/3--7: Biden 34, Warren 9, Sanders 10.
FOX News 9/29-10/2 : Biden 41, Warren 12, Sanders 10.
Winthrop 9/2-30: Biden 37, Warren 17, Sanders 8

No surprises here.

Nevada. RCP: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/nv/nevada_democratic_presidential_caucus-6866.html

RCP Average: 9/19-26: Biden 22.5, Warren: 18.5, Sanders 18.0. Biden +4

CNN 9/22-9/26: Biden 22, Warren 18, Sanders 22. Biden +4 (Not quite a Tie)
USA Today/Suffolk 9/19-9/23: Biden 23, Warren 19, Sanders 14. Biden +4

So Iowa too close to call, but Biden and Warren will share the bulk of he delegates. Co-frontrunners.

New Hampshire gives Warren as light lead, but Biden and Warren will share the bulk of the delegates, though Sanders will get some as well.
South Carolina is overwhelmingly for Biden.
Nevada gives Biden a slight lead, but Biden and Warren jwill share the bulk of the delegates.

See how this plays out in the polls the next couple of weeks.

[crazytown]

1. The Candidates at the debate seemed to think otherwise.

[UncleNoel]

4. She certainly rose in the polls dramatically

and that made her a target of the others. They kind of had there shot at Biden to no avail. Her turn to take the heat.

[BeyondGeography]

9. The other moderates are laying off Joe because they want his voters

They hope he will fade on his own so they won’t have to get their hands dirty. To the extent they see him as a front runner they see him as vulnerable and certainly less of a priority to contend with than Warren at this point.

[Demsrule86]

17. He is not fading and I do not believe Warren does well outside of super liberal areas like New York

and California...although California has moderate voters...Biden is still the nominee in IMHO...and those laying off him are hoping for a VP spot...as for affection for Biden which some here claim...I find that funny. Warren supporters for the most part have attacked Biden constantly. I believe in the end she will not be our nominee...at least I hope not or we will lose 2020. Yes she has my vote but she won't take the states we need in terms of the electoral college.

[BeyondGeography]

21. They're hoping he fades so they can avoid attacking him

Try reading posts before you respond to them.

[Demsrule86]

29. Attacking him will backfire ...and I did read it and stand by my statement.

[emulatorloo]

39. Sanders and Warren don't appear to think Biden is "fading."

Makes sense as Biden and Warren are tied and Sanders would like to move up.

Hat tip to Warren for her excellent campaign.

[qazplm135]

26. yeah she will totally die in non super liberal areas like

Iowa.

Your ability to prognosticate is going to take a serious beating over the next year.

[Demsrule86]

30. I sincerely hope so...I really do. I don't see anyone but Biden winning a general or helping us with

the senate.

[emulatorloo]

40. Contrary to DU conventional wisdom, Iowa Democratic caucus goers lean liberal/progressive

[crazytown]

10. There is a depth of goodwill and affection for VP Biden,

which I share, which makes attacking him risky, if not counterproductive, particularly in the last debate after trump's nastiness. Nevertheless, the candidates treated Warren as the frontrunner.

[Hortensis]

24. Yes, they did. It made me wonder if the RW/Russian attempt

to frame Biden for fake crimes made pack-attacking him at this point particularly risky. Look what happened to Castro. Meanwhile, they need to stop her rise, which is pulling support from many of them.

[Celerity]

5. it seemed that way nt

[DownriverDem]

11. Guess what?

If Warren gets the nomination it will be misogyny all the way.

[crazytown]

14. And we will have to deal with it.

This election will be a different animal for Democrats. We will be voting against the Republican more than voting for the alternative.

[Demsrule86]

18. And we will lose.

[UncleNoel]

2. We can add the poll just posted by Gothmog

@D_jeneration

Oh boy 😍😍😍😍👇👇👇👇👇

Link to tweet

…
Political Polls @Politics_Polls

South Carolina Democratic Primary:
Biden 34%
Sanders 10%
Warren 9%
Steyer 7%
Booker 6%
Harris 4%
O'Rourke 2%
Klobuchar 2%
Yang 2%
Bullock 2%
Castro 1%
Gabbard 1%
Delaney 1%
Williamson 1%
Ryan 0%
Bennet 0%
Buttigieg 0%@GravisMarketing 10/3-7http://orlando-politics.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/South-Carolina-October-10-2019.pdf …

[Celerity]

6. that poll was incorrectly labelled 'new', it is not, It is from a range of 11 to 15 days ago.

[Joe941]

3. You are correct she is not the frontrunner.

Time will tell if she eventually becomes that. But people are pushed a false narrative.

[DownriverDem]

13. When are folks going to

concentrate on who can win the Electoral College which means state by state? I'm concentrating on who can win and not who I like. What good does it do to support someone who can't win the election?

[Demsrule86]

19. Some believe here that they can elect Warren because they can make voters want her with the

proper message and campaign. They can't fathom others not adoring her as they do...I believe they are wrong.

[Blue_Adept]

23. You can say that about each candidate and their supporters.

[emmaverybo]

27. I think he meant that at DU we lose touch with the rest of our party "out there." Here, Warren

is an idol, but that is because her policies and passions match the majority will at DU; she appeals to the majority DU demographic, but the broader party “out there” occupies a broader range of positions on the political spectrum, as well as represents a broader demographic range. With traditional liberal candidates like Joe, it’s the inverse.

[Demsrule86]

31. You could...but I had a poster here tell me she believed that Biden would win but she thought

Warren could win to with the proper campaign...I heard it a couple of times. I disagree with this idea. She is not a good nominee for us in 20...although she has my vote.

[Hortensis]

25. Wishful thinking. It's foolish to get all emotionally invested

in one candidate and feed that enthusiasm by soaking up reasons to oppose others. Everything is about winning the GE and winning it big, and this is just the runup to the real battle.

We know the RW swiftboat industry, the MSM, and Russia have been tearing down Biden and simultaneously boosting Warren, of course. Same as Hillary-Sanders. If it became her turn to be turned into an dangerous, contemptible witch, her happy wishful enthusiasts would be in for a big shock. I suspect a fair number of them are still under the influence that Hillary really was sunk under genuine "baggage," really was "unlikeable," and really was "too untrustworthy" to vote for. Oh, yeah, and she ran a stupid-bad campaign.

[Demsrule86]

32. I agree with everything you said. Hillary was sunk by the right wing smear machine...and I have been

very disturbed watching Warren supporters using Trump's lies against Biden.

[Hortensis]

34. Yes. :) Same here, Dems.

Some take longer to learn not to be at least less easily deceived, but we're none of us used to being classified, hunted and our weaknesses targeted as the internet now means voters are.

Our candidates are forced to behave as I'm sure most would wish not to as they try to capture attention during transient moments in the spotlight. One is proven no more respectful of the will of the electorate than the Republicans, but most of our Democrats are much more impressive people than the process makes them appear.

Thank goodness! And, marvelously, the winnowing so far always works to at least separate out the worst. We don't average half as foolish as media coverage of the noisy sorts make us appear either.

[floppyboo]

36. Agree. EC. Bernie is the only one beating Trump in Iowa (Emerson yesterday) nt

[emulatorloo]

41. I saw that poll, great news for Bernie.

[UncleNoel]

7. Reggliecandlee had a post with link to a good rundown of the current situation

BTRTN 2020 Vision: Warren Soars, Blows to Bernie and Biden...and an Opening for Pete?
Born To Run The Numbers provides its latest comprehensive monthly update on the status of the 2020 Presidential Race:
Pardon if I steal a clip from his post.

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/10/btrtn-2020-vision-warren-soars-blows-to.html

Excerpts: "Biden continues to lead in the national polls, still holding at roughly 30% of Democrats, but Elizabeth Warren made a huge jump, now alone in second place and closing fast on Biden.
...The first three 'early states' – Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada – are now all very close races. Warren is slightly ahead in Iowa, more so in New Hampshire and Nevada is a three-way tie.
...Biden continues to dominate South Carolina, the only early state with a strong African-American presence, his strongest demographic and his 'firewall.'
...Bernie Sanders suffered a heart attack while on the road, bringing the age of all three leading candidates into sharp focus; Sanders, while sidelined, lost some ground nationally and in Iowa.

Two emerging stories have gone largely unreported: (1) The rise of Pete Buttigieg in Iowa. The ground reports on Pete in the Hawkeye State have been glowing for months, but none of that turned into poll momentum until this past month, when three separate polls had him in double digits and catching up to Sanders. If Mayor Pete is able to snag a top three spot in the Iowa caucus, that would be a significant development. (2) Super Tuesday. With everyone focused on Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina, no one has been focused on the true prize. The early states have 155 delegates at stake, but Super Tuesday has 1,255. If Biden can survive the first three contests and win South Carolina (where he continues to lead), he is well positioned for a delegate haul on Super Tuesday."

[TidalWave46]

8. Good info.

We have two great democrats at the top of the field.

[real Cannabis calm]

15. It looks like media is afraid of Warren; but I don't believe this

[Demsrule86]

20. They want Warren to be the candidate for the most part...no other explanation for their behavior.

[Green Line]

28. Yes they do

They’re pushing hard for her. I have my own theories why, but won’t post it here.

[Bayard]

16. I'm surprised

That Steyer is already polling ahead of Booker and Harris.

[emulatorloo]

22. Same here it makes no sense to me. His heart is in the right place but

he’s not qualified or experienced enough for the job. Harris and Booker are.

[Bayard]

38. I think they only asked him 2 questions in the debate.

[Gothmog]

33. Without significant African American voter support, Warren will not be the nominee

Link to tweet

[Cha]

35. Oh Wow.. Biden has gone higher % wise

with POC than he was the last time we checked, right?!

Mahalo, Goth!

Link to tweet

[Scurrilous]

37. ...