Washington Post-Opinion: Democrats cannot win in 2020 merely by turning out the base

[Gothmog]

Link to tweet

To begin with, 33 percent of voters say their vote in 2020 depends on whom the Democrats nominate. Of these, 61 percent are moderate and 54 percent identify as independent, while the rest are more inclined to identify as Democrats (21 percent vs. 15 percent) than Republicans. They are also younger, more likely to be Hispanic and more likely to have an education of high school or less. Thirty percent voted for Hillary Clinton, 18 percent voted for President Trump. We also know candidates’ position on issues is the most important factor (43 percent) as opposed to leadership experience or style.

Depending on which states, these “it depends on who the Democrats pick” voters could be critical. Moderate candidates (e.g., former vice president Joe Biden, Sen. Amy Klobuchar) might appeal to these voters, but a younger candidate (South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg) might excite them. One thing we know: These are not the college-educated white, super-progressive Democrats attracted to Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.).

In addition, there is a whole lot of soft Republican support. Fifty percent say they approve of Trump’s performance but that Trump could lose their support. This is quite different than the portrait of an immovable GOP base that one hears about. By contrast, only 15 percent of Democrats say they disapprove of Trump but that he could win them over. Weak Trump supporters include many college-educated voters (Trump draws only 36 percent of these) and female voters. In short, the right Democratic candidate could peel off some, albeit not a lot, of Republican support.

Finally, 54 percent put terrorism in their top three issues, including 51 percent of independents. While Democrats have chosen to focus on the international repercussions of the pullout of troops from Syria, freeing thousands of Islamic State fighters should be of major concern to a majority of voters.

[Trenzalore]

1. More attacks on college educated folks

Remember when being smart was considered an advantage in this country.

[Thekaspervote]

5. This isn't an attack..it's a statistics published by the WaPo a credible left leaning paper

[Chemisse]

6. We can't only rely on college-educated voters; we need a wider appeal.

It's important to keep winning as the primary goal, as opposed to winning with our favorite candidate.

[Trenzalore]

17. Here is the thing about who our nominee is

No matter who the nominee is they are going to be painted as the second coming of Lenin.

Might as well nominate someone we actually like and believes the words that are coming out of their own mouth. They are better able to sell themselves to the electorate.

[Chemisse]

25. The paint won't 'stick' if the candidate has wide appeal.

I don't know who that is, frankly. All of our top candidates have major flaws, imo.

All I know is, this election is ours to lose, and we need to be clear-headed.

[beachbumbob]

33. no amount of selling of a "leftest" leaning candidate is going to bring to the table

MORE voters in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan Iowa, Kansas to vote democratic.

NOT a single state a "leftest" can win that some one like Joe Biden would not win easily and a whole lot of states where a "leftest" candidate would lose, that Joe could/would win.

Thats the reality. US is NOT nor has ever been a "left-center" country, but "center-left"


Its difficult for coastal and large urban area people to comprehend this reality

[Trenzalore]

35. I live in PA

Our Governor has won 2 terms and he is more liberal than Joe Biden. Ohio and Kansas are lost causes. Iowa will be interesting if farmers realize how bad they got fucked, they might not.

[frazzled]

7. How is this an attack on college educated voters?

It’s merely a statement of fact, based on voter demographics and polling.

The American voting public (and Democratic voting public) consists of a vast range of economic, educational, ethnic, religious (or not), and political strata, who do not vote in uniform blocs. And they all have a right to their choices.

Not everyone votes like “us.” We don’t even vote like us. Ignoring the full spectrum of views and opinions is myopic at best, electorally disastrous at worst.

This is why winning in very white states such as Iowa and NH is fairly meaningless, and why holding big rallies for your supporters is a fool’s errand.

[Trenzalore]

18. The article is written by a conservative commentator

I'm sure if they wanted to help democrats now they could write an opinion piece about abuse of power or the emoluments clause.

[Bettie]

8. Not educated seems to be code for

'nominate someone who promises not to change anything'.

[Trenzalore]

19. We have to nominate Biden because Reagan won in 1980. nt.

[emmaverybo]

9. Being smart and having a college education are not always the same thing.

[Trenzalore]

21. There is value in a college degree

Granted some people didn't apply themselves but I know a very highly intelligent person who simply doesn't know certain things that they would know if they had one.

Statistically speaking college educated people are better compensated.

[emmaverybo]

22. Stand by what I said. Benefits of formal ed, but different kinds of intelligence. All for a college

ed, by the way. Have one, like most DUers. Taught college for years. Not about, however, to say smart people go to college and non-smart don’t! Higher ed is a plus as it broadens perspective, teaches thinking strategies, introduces ideas, provides a forum to mix and exchange experiences and insights with many others. We hope it encourages open-mindedness, informed decision-making, stimulates, and deepens intellect. Most of all, helps people to be more objective as it can provide a discipline by which one can step back, evaluate, problem solve mentally.

Still, some folks get the same through self-education, travel, service, work...even work.

[kcr]

40. And there are degree holders who are dumb as rocks

There is no question that college degrees have value, and not just because you're better compensated. The problem is too many now think that means a lack of a degree means lack of value, and that's in part because of that compensation factor. Degree inflation is a real problem that has contributed to income inequality and the shrinking of the middle class. Corporations have come to over-rely on them instead of training employees like they used to. When college degrees became merely a ticket to a job, their value as an education tool took a back seat. That also perversely put them out of reach for more Americans as costs skyrocketed while more jobs came to require them. That's why policies that merely contribute to their value as a job ticket won't help.

Edit I realize I just went way off topic there. But this is a sore spot.

[Chemisse]

26. True, but they tend to correlate.

And that is one way to categorize and evaluate voter preferences.

[Gothmog]

11. We cannot win a national election relying on a narrow base of voters

[Trenzalore]

15. The mythical white working class Reagan democratic Vote is in their 70s

They aren't coming back.

[emmaverybo]

23. Can not. And that's not democracy. I am always impressed when I read historical voter registration

logs and go through the census at the folks who held up our democracy for ages without a college education, at a time when so many were not born in America, when lawyers and doctors were far and few between. So many “laborers,” “farmhands,” “blacksmiths,” “bar keeps...”

Between our two coasts, we still have a middle. We need to dip into as much of America as possible AND get the base out.

[LonePirate]

12. Evidently, only uneducated, racist, blue collar whites in the Midwest matter nowadays.

The rest of us are invisible and apparently do not vote.

[Trenzalore]

16. Electoral College makes some of that true

That being said. If you excite the democratic base in most of the swing states other than Ohio you probably carry the election.

White middle class male middle age angry guys aren't about to jump on the Joe Biden wagon as well.

[vsrazdem]

2. I believe I heard this song and dance in 2016.

[msongs]

3. the base that sat home in WI, MI, and PA gave trump the electoral college nt

[ritapria]

4. Conventional Wisdom - From The 1990's

The base stayed home in 2016 ……..And what about all the people who don't even bother to register to vote ? …...There are tens of millions of potential voters who seek inspiration and hope that the system will really act to improve the quality of their lives ...They see no hope and have dropped out …. FDR gave them hope and he delivered the goods ….Result : 4 Electoral College Landslides ….

[Toorich]

10. So, can we win ....

.... or are we already mathematically eliminated?

If we are already toast, then I can just stay home and dust
several of my tastefully framed higher education diplomas and
rearrange my sock drawer on election day.
Eh wot?

[GeorgeGist]

13. Republicans like Rubin always have advice for Democrats.

[Hassin Bin Sober]

14. Yep. Conservatives should fuck off to their own fucked up party

Especially conservative bloggers

Advice for Jeff Bezos From the Post’s Former In-House Critic

Fire Jennifer Rubin

https://www.washingtoncitypaper.com/news/city-desk/blog/13067559/ombo-sauce-advice-for-jeff-bezos-from-the-posts-former-in-house-critic

The Ugly Jennifer Rubin. Have Fred Hiatt, your editorial page editor—who I like, admire, and respect—fire opinion blogger Jennifer Rubin. Not because she’s conservative, but because she’s just plain bad. She doesn’t travel within a hundred miles of Post standards. She parrots and peddles every silly right-wing theory to come down the pike in transparent attempts to get Web hits. Her analysis of the conservative movement, which is a worthwhile and important beat that the Post should treat more seriously on its national pages, is shallow and predictable. Her columns, at best, are political pornography; they get a quick but sure rise out of the right, but you feel bad afterward.

And she is often wrong, and rarely acknowledges it. She was oh-so-wrong about Mitt Romney, week after week writing embarrassing flattery about his 2012 campaign, calling almost every move he made brilliant, and guaranteeing that he would trounce Barack Obama. When he lost, the next day she savaged him and his campaign with treachery, saying he was the worst candidate with the worst staff, ever. She was wrong about the Norway shootings being acts of al-Qaida. She was wrong about Chuck Hagel being an anti-Semite. And does she apologize? Nope.

Rubin was the No. 1 source of complaint mail about any single Post staffer while I was ombudsman, and I’m leaving out the organized email campaigns against her by leftie groups like Media Matters. Thinking conservatives didn’t like her, thinking moderates didn’t like her, government workers who knew her arguments to be unfair didn’t like her. Dump her like a dull tome on the Amazon Bargain Books page.

Patrick B. Pexton was the ombudsman of the Washington Post until March 2013. He blogs at PBPexton.com. Illustration by Jandos Rothstein

[ChubbyStar]

20. Rubin is a fucking hack tool fool ass

and a HORRIBLE writer

[True Blue American]

29. Thank you!

[DrToast]

24. There is some truth to this

Everyone here knows Trump was full of shit, but he DID try to appeal to moderates with many of his policies.

[Kurt V.]

27. did a 5 y.o. write this?

no offense to 5 y.o.'s

[True Blue American]

28. Trump will be lucky

If he makes it to the 2020 election.

Each day shows more and more corruption. It is like a tidal wave, now.

[Gothmog]

37. Joe Biden can get trump voters who have soured and moderates.

Link to tweet

[RDANGELO]

30. Democrats only make up about 30% of the electorate.

We could get out 100% of registered Democrats and still lose the election. About 40% of the electorate are independents. Yes,a good portion of them lean Democrat, but they are independents for a reason. Most of them are more moderate than the base. The independents are more likely to cross over or stay home. What we need to do is continue to push for our ideals and nominate a candidate who can win. I am also a firm believer that either the top or the bottom of the ticket needs to be an African-American.

[dustyscamp]

32. I'm praying we can convince more than half of the Independents to vote blue

[gab13by13]

31. I call bs on this article,

In 2016 our turnout was low. In 2018 our turnout was high. Case closed.

[Gothmog]

34. Biden is the only candidate that has a cross appeal to Never-Trumpers & GOP moderates;

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

36. @JoeBiden has the most loyal supporters in the country.

Link to tweet

[totodeinhere]

38. Who is advocating only turning out the base?

Turning out the base is critical but of course we need to go after every vote. It's a no brainer.

[Gothmog]

39. Biden is dominating with moderate voters

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

41. NEW POLL: Nearly half of Americans think Democrats have moved too far to the left

Link to tweet

Nearly half of respondents in a new poll said the Democratic Party has moved "too far left."
The survey from Quinnipiac University Poll released Wednesday found that 47 percent of registered voters polled said the Democratic Party has moved “too far left;" however, most of those voters identified as Republicans.

The poll found that 79 percent of Republicans surveyed said the Democrats had moved too far left, but only 17 percent of Democrats agreed. Just under half, or 48 percent, of independents said the party has drifted too far left.

There was also a gap by gender, with 57 percent of male respondents saying the party was too far to the left and only 37 percent of women saying the same. Similarly, the view was split by race, with 53 percent of white voters polled agreeing, 33 percent of Hispanic voters and just 17 percent of black voter