YouGov Poll: Warren slips

[boomer_wv]

Biden: 24 (-1)
Warren: 21 (-7)
Sanders: 15 (+2)
Buttigieg: 8 (+2)
Harris: 5 (-)
Etc.

This represents Bidens first lead in this poll in a month and her lowest level of support since the first week of sept. This has been one of her best polls.

[bluewater]

1. the polls are what the polls are

Warren avoiding answering how she plans to fund Medicare for All seems to have had a decided impact on post debate polls.

She needs to release her funding plan and release it soon.

[Raven123]

3. Agree

[DownriverDem]

26. Center/Left Country

Biden is our best candidate. trump doesn't want to run against Biden. Biden running with a strong progressive Dem woman like Harris, will be a formidable ticket. We must not blow this.

[LakeArenal]

2. Biden and Warren are leading.

This is all so very normal. It gets reported like it is huge breaking news.

The she’s up, he’s down. She’s down, he’s up. No shit. That’s how it supposed to work. Eventually it’s probably going to come down to two. Maybe three.

That’s when who’s up or down will matter.

Good for Joe. Good for Liz.

[Thekaspervote]

4. One of many polls this week that has shown Biden extending his lead or retaking the lead

[Cha]

40. Amazing! In spite of all

the negativity from the usual suspects Biden is still going strong!

[peggysue2]

55. Agree, Cha

The fact that Joe Biden has managed to hold his lead after all the attacks and smears is a very good yardstick on his durability.

Elizabeth Warren has slipped since the last debate. I think that's primarily over the Medicare4All funding and her reluctance to be forthcoming on the issue. Right now it's an albatross hanging around her neck. She'll need to come up with a realistic funding plan or pivot to something more reasonable.

Good news for Joe!

[TidalWave46]

5. That is an enormous slip from the YouGov Blue / Data for Progress poll.

Warren 36 Biden 23

That was conducted from Sept 23 - Oct 4


https://projects.economist.com/democratic-primaries-2020/

[bluewater]

6. different polls, but point taken.

The YouGov polls actually reflect movement in their results. Unlike some... cough MorningConsult cough

This is not a good trend for Warren and I can't help but think it's due to her avoiding a direct question about funding Medicare for All.

[TidalWave46]

7. It's hilarious. That's my take.

It's not the only poll like that the economist is running with. Complete sham.

[bluewater]

8. well, at least they don't use the equally hilarious HarrisX polls

RCP has some doozies of it's own.

[TidalWave46]

10. No, RCP doesn't have the list of shady polls found on the economist.

They have had some questionable polls and a couple of outliers. Some of the ones the economist are using aren't outliers. They are sham polls.

They also don't use those outliers in a regression model. That is borderline criminal.

[bluewater]

11. RCP uses the same polls and even more shady ones. Care to list polls so we can check?

cough HarrisX cough

Also, The Economist doesn't use the shady Emerson Poll and RCP does. Emerson had 51% college educated respondants in their last poll, and they didn't even bother to weight them. That's why Sanders always does so well in that poll.


please list shady polls The Economist uses that are not also used by RCP.
If you have a point, I would appreciate details.

And you really need to expand on this statement:

They also don't use those outliers in a regression model. That is borderline criminal.

[TidalWave46]

12. Listed at the economist.

YouGov

Warren 28 Biden 18

Sept 26 - 30

https://projects.economist.com/democratic-primaries-2020/

It's like telling statistics to fuck off using such nonsense in regression analysis.

The polls are what the polls are.

[bluewater]

13. YOU need to list "shady" polls the Economist is using that RCP isn't. please validate your claim.

It's your claim, you need to validate it.

C'mon LIST the shady polls Economist is using that RCP isn't.

You can do that right?

otherwise its all bluster...

I already mention TWO shady polls RCP uses that the Economist does not: HarrisX and Emerson.

Your turn...

[TidalWave46]

14. Please show me where RCP is using these as a part of regression analysis.

I did do it.

[bluewater]

15. So you can't list shady polls the Economoist uses and RCP does not. I thought so.

Just list the polls that you claim the Economist uses that RCP polls does not.

Still waiting....

I already pointed out RCP uses the shady Emerson University poll, for example.

Link to tweet

[TidalWave46]

17. I already backed up my point.

I'm not sure you've even read my posts in their entirety. If you had, you would see the blatant fallacy in your argument/question.

[bluewater]

18. Evasion noted... again. Hey here is some info on the shady Emerson poll RCP uses

Hey, here is something about that SHADY Emerson poll RCP always uses:

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

[ritapria]

23. Bernie does better with non-college grads than college grads

A sample that is tilted towards college grads Favors Warren , not Bernie , so I don't understand what is the point G. Elliot Morris is trying to make ……. To be frank , I don't know what he is talking about when he refers to MTURK … Perhaps Males watching The Young Turks ? …….

[bluewater]

27. MTurk is a paid survey responding thru Amazon. No wonder Emersons' results are different.

I had to edit this post when I found out what MTurk was...

Oh, MTurk is a paid survey responding thru Amazon.

Oh lord. 35% of the Emerson poll responded via MTurk. That is disqualifying

THAT explains things more than the 51% of respondents with some college. No wonder the results seem so counter intuitive.

[ritapria]

29. Thanks for the information..I really appreciate it

I was wondering why Emerson was producing results so different from the other polls

[ritapria]

30. G Elliot Morris is the Data Journalist at The Economist

And he is telling people that Bernie is super strong among those with college degrees ……...Can you believe that ?... Elliot ...Those folks are flocking to Elizabeth Warren …..He writes about polls, elections and political science for one of the world's most prominent news publications ….He thinks affluent , educated people are feeling the Bern ? …. His employer, The Economist , are sponsoring YouGuv Polls that have produced Pro Warren outliers for months on end ….He should criticize those polls before going after the results produced by an obscure College ...Which poll has the better ranking from Nate Silver ?... Emerson B+ …. Youguv /Economist B-

[bluewater]

31. 35% of Emerson respondents are done by a paid survey thru amazon, MTurk.

Um, that's real bad, isn't it?

And didn't Morris actually point out that Emerson also had 51% of its respondants being colleged educated and they didn't even weight that demographic?

So, it's bad methodology all around and it looks like the 35% MTurk paid respondents offset the 51% college educated ones in boosting Bernie's numbers.

[HeartlandProgressive]

33. OMG 35% of people polled by Emerson are PAID to respond?

Makes sense why their results are so crazy. No wonder The Economist refuses to use it in its tracker.

So Emerson uses Amazon's MTurk PAID surveys for 35% of the people responding in their poll... that's disqualifying.

[bluewater]

35. Good thing G. Elliot Morris pointed out this MTurk stuff...

I had no idea that The Emerson University were using that large a number of paid people in it's poll.

That certainly does explain a lot. Sloppy methodology all around.

[HeartlandProgressive]

36. So Emerson is a robot-caller poll of LAND LINES ONLY and uses PAID respondents?

Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=655) and an online panel provided by Amazon Turk (n=345).

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/october-national-poll-biden-sanders-warren-maintain-front-runner-status-in-democratic-primary

It's amazing what you find out when you look deeper at a poll.

[pnwpolicy]

9. +/- 4 on this poll tho?

Biden and Warren are within margin of error.

[Skya Rhen]

16. She dropped 7 points in one week.

[madville]

19. She's losing peoples' trust

Because she can’t be honest about the enormous costs and associated tax increases that come with the M4A plan.

[bluewater]

21. you're close enough to the truth

She definitely has taken a hit in the polls for being evasive about funding Medicare for All.

I love Warren, but even I can see that she needs to release a detailed plan about her healthcare plan and how to fund it.

And she needs to do that soon.

[madville]

22. The CNN poll today had a good question

Which candidate would handle health care better:
Biden 31
Sanders 28
Warren 17

Biden’s “improve the ACA” approach is popular, especially with a public option. Bernie is committed to M4A and upfront about everything that comes with it. Warren’s campaign made a big blunder on this single issue. They can still turn it around maybe, we’ll see what funding plan they release in the coming weeks.

[bluewater]

25. she could do more than detail the funding

Personally, I think Warren would be best served with a detailed plan of implementing Medicare for All in steps over a longer time period than 4 years. I think that's the best approach to get the health insurance system we actually need.

Everyone admits the current system is sub-optimal for most and an outright failure for too many people.

Everyone right now, including your candidate, is on board with some form of public option.

But the problem with a public option is that private insurance companies will find ways to dump high cost customers who would then have to enter the public option. Couple that with the working poor who would need to be subsidized in a public option and it's doomed to be a financial failure.

Transitioning to a national health insurance system like Medicare for All that puts everyone in the same risk pool and funds it thru various forms of taxation seems the only workable long term solution, well to some of us.

[Kahuna7]

32. Not just M4A. She can't explain how to pay for all those plans she has....

That wealth tax won't do it.

[bluewater]

20. Yep, she did.

the polls are what the polls are

I think it's due to not being able to say how she plans to fund Medicare for All at the last debate.

[Gothmog]

44. Warren is doing poorly with moderate voters

Link to tweet

[saljr1]

24. polls are polls who cares now

in the end I don't believe Biden will be the nominee. JMHO

[Sloumeau]

28. Yay! Good news for Joe! Go, Joe, Go! :)

[Gothmog]

34. Three national polls with @JoeBiden leading by solid margins

Link to tweet

[bluewater]

37. Why is Biden down to 28.7% at RCP Polls? That's even lower than earlier in the week...

And it's lower than the 29.3% support he had back on April 25th when he announced his campaign.

[Gothmog]

38. Biden sees a major jump in the polls putting him ahead of Elizabeth Warren

Link to tweet

[bluewater]

39. I know, so why did he go down at RCP POLLS?

And his average support is only 28.7%?

Is there something wrong about how RCP POLLS tracks polls?

[UncleNoel]

41. They are including old polls from September

that are Warren friendy

[bluewater]

48. Nope. Oldest poll was Oct 11-13.

[Gothmog]

42. LOL The RCP averages have been updated

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

46. Biden is back up over Warren by almost 7 points in the RCP average.

Link to tweet

[LanternWaste]

49. You could, y'know... find out and inform us.

You could, y'know... find out and inform us. With objective evidence supporting a valid conclusion.

Or you could just continue asking why it rains on the just and unjust alike.

[bluewater]

50. I can't explain why Joe is now at 27.2%, that's lower than the day he announced.

So, I keep asking people that post the RCP Polls results to explain that.

That seems like a very reasonable thing to do, don't you think?

[Gothmog]

43. LOL Here are the latest RCP numbers

Why did Warren go down so much?

Link to tweet

[bluewater]

47. Joe down to 27.2% support at RCP today

That's more than 2% below where he started back on April 25th when he announced. He was at 29.3% support then.



And, his lead is no longer "almost 7%", today it's +5.4

So, sure he's leading, but why is Joe's support so low? Why is it below what it was when he announced?

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

[Act_of_Reparation]

54. Or a more important question:

Would Biden still be leading if either Sanders or Warren weren't in the race? I mean, I'm not a mathicist or anything, but it looks like progressivism is the preferred platform... it's just split between two candidates.

[Gothmog]

45. A slew of national primary polls in past 3 days; Biden ahead in all of them.

Link to tweet

[quickesst]

51. just now on velshi and ruhle

Candidate most likely to beat Trump?

Biden- 42%
Warren- 20%

[Gothmog]

52. Biden has improved over last poll

Link to tweet

?s=20

[Happy Hoosier]

53. If Liz wants to take and keep the lead....

She needs to dispense with handwavium and just be up front on how she will fund her projects.

I predict Bernie's "I don't need to do that now" approach will cause him to fade further. If you want to convince me your plan isn't free ponies and pizza, show me the math.