The most important number in the CNN 2020 poll isn't the one you think it is

[Gothmog]

You can not win the Democratic nomination without significant African American voter support

Link to tweet

Biden is ahead because he is consolidating his support among non-white voters, a key voting bloc among whom he already had a very clear edge over his primary rivals.
Here's how the numbers by race break out in the new CNN poll:
Whites

Biden 27%
Warren 23%
Sanders 15%

Non-Whites

Biden 42%
Sanders 16%
Warren 13%

That's striking stuff. And while Biden has long led among non-white voters, his support has surged since earlier this fall when he was taking just 28% of their vote in a hypothetical Democratic primary ballot.
Why is his support among non-white voters -- and the suggestion that support is increasing as actual votes near -- so important for Biden and his chances? Because non-whites have been the decisive voting bloc in each of the recent contested Democratic presidential primaries. In 2008, Barack Obama beat Hillary Clinton because of his massive edge over her among black voters. Eight years later, Clinton beat Sanders because she crushed him among African Americans and Hispanics.

[YOHABLO]

1. Well, I guess Biden will be our next President. Everybody go home now.

[Tarheel_Dem]

2. And this is why Biden's fundraising isn't blowing the doors off like some others.

I know for me personally, I'm in a different place (financially) than I was in '08, '12 & '16. The difference being that I'm now on a fixed income due to disability. Like many of Biden's supporters, I don't have the same disposable income I had just a few short years ago, and I'm certainly in no condition to travel & sit for hours at a rally. I suspect if Biden can make it to the nomination, he'll have plenty of $$$$ to go up against the Orange Menace.

[Thekaspervote]

3. Agree!

Also Warren transferred 10 million from her senate re-election fund, sanders transfered funds as well. Doesn’t make it wrong, but it’s a little known fact that makes it appear that Biden was so far out raised

I will leave it there

[Tarheel_Dem]

5. That's very interesting. I do what I can, but admittedly it's nowhere near what I was able to do...

in the past. That makes me sad, but it is what it is. I'm in that tricky AA demographic that supports Biden 1000%, but unfortunately I can no longer put my money or my body where my passions are.

[brush]

12. The fundraising numbers will change as candidates are winnowed out by poor...

showings in the primaries. Many will be out after Iowa and NH. Biden has more than enough to get through those two nearly all-white events and then comes South Carolina and Super Tuesday where there is real diversity in those states' electorates, meaning more Biden supporters.

After those events the fundraising pie will be divided by fewer candidates and Biden will likely have more delegates than others which will translate to higher fundraising.

[Tarheel_Dem]

13. I sure hope that's how it will play out. I remember '16 when much was made of crowd size & small..

dollar donations. It creates great optics, but we learned that it's not enough. Money, crowd size & perceived "enthusiasm" only goes so far.

[brush]

14. I remember the many big rallies. They didn't translate into votes in 2016 which...

is why I'm not worried about trump's rallies where he froths up his base for a couple of hours. The idiot doesn't seem to realize that he's not growing his base by doing those long lie-a-thons all over red-state nation.

Paraphrasing Barack Obama from the 2012 debate with Romney: "Please proceed the rallies, stable genius."

[redqueen]

4. It will be interesting to see how these numbers change

as more of these voters staff paying more attention.

[BannonsLiver]

25. Yeah, I've heard that every time someone tries to explain away the numbers

Maybe they won't change that much? Does anyone allow for that possibility?

On edit: You made this post a month ago. I think we have our answer, at least for the last 30 days.

[redqueen]

29. Undecided has moved from 1st place to 2nd - why not let people decide?

Are so many people really this scared and desperate? It's not a good look

[LiberalLovinLug]

6. He naturally got a sympathy bump from the Ukraine scandal

I think that will settle down eventually. In fact establishment Democrats are panicking that if he can't win then they have to add a last minute establishment candidate that can. Bernie and Warren are dire threats to Wall Street's shady practices, and the status quo, and the establishment politicians of either party that are beholden to them.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/22/us/politics/democratic-candidates-2020.html

Anxious Democratic Establishment Asks, ‘Is There Anybody Else?’

Also, funny how Biden, with all that embracing of any and all corporate donations and dark pac money, is behind in money of both Warren and Sanders who rely on actual grass root Democrats with smaller personal donations.

[Gothmog]

7. The Wall Streeters who actually like Elizabeth Warren

Link to tweet

But not everyone on Wall Street hates her. In fact, there are plenty of people who believe the idea of Warren in the White House sounds pretty good. And it’s not a grudging acceptance of her worldview but instead genuine support for it.

Some in the industry believe that the excesses of the financial system continue to be a problem in the wake of the Great Recession and that corporate concentration, wealth inequality, and lax regulation are still issues that need addressing. Do they think she’s 100 percent right on everything? No. But they know she’s smart, and they think she’s approaching policy with a scalpel, not a sledgehammer. They believe Warren when she says she is a capitalist and are on board with her brand of capitalism.

“A place like mine chooses winners economically,” said a Goldman Sachs vice president. “Is that right? It doesn’t seem like that is right.”

I spoke with more than three dozen people from across the financial sector — professionals who work at hedge funds, big banks, and private equity funds, in asset management, financial advice, investment banking, trading, research, and compliance — who support Warren’s presidential bid. They know if she lands in the White House that may make their jobs a bit different, their companies a little less lucrative, or mean they’ll pay more in taxes. And they think that’s great. They support Warren because of her policies, not in spite of them.

[LiberalLovinLug]

10. good to know!

Its hard to believe that they all are crooks. Good to hear there is a contingent who don't like how it can be so abused.

But I still get the impression that the majority and the most powerful forces on Wall Street definitely do not want Warren. Based on the majority of articles from a couple of minutes of googling "Wall Street Elizabeth Warren"
So much so that some big corporate donors to the Democratic party are threatening to switch their donations to Donald Trump.

The Emerging Anybody-But-Warren Campaign
http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/10/wall-street-spreads-anybodybutelizabeth-warren-sentiment.html

Goliath review: Wall Street, Main Street … and Warren as McGovern 2.0?
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/oct/19/goliath-review-wall-street-elizabeth-warren

Elizabeth Warren scares Wall Street for good reason
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/elizabeth-warren-scares-wall-street-for-good-reason-143753317.html

Wall Street’s Optimism Sinks as Elizabeth Warren’s Star Rises
https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-streets-optimism-sinks-as-elizabeth-warrens-star-rises-51570199807

The Business of Fearing Elizabeth Warren
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-business-of-fearing-elizabeth-warren-11570219998

[The Mouth]

21. Or, whether or not crooks, not stupid and realize that another meltdown

doesn't do them any good, either.

Warren is deeply knowledgeable about corporations but not as deeply beholden to them as some other candidates.

[Tarheel_Dem]

15. Oops!

[emmaverybo]

8. Don't think "sympathy bump" explains why Biden has such greater support among non-whites.

If Warren and Sanders are not honest with themselves about why they lack support with black and other POC Dems, they will never have a shot at the nomination no matter how much they lecture
about the evils of the status quo, the establishment...

[TexasTowelie]

26. I think that someone else got a sympathy bump. nt

[Cha]

9. I love our African American Support in all

our elections! So important for Democracy!!

Mahalo, Goth!

[Gothmog]

11. Joe Biden sees a major jump in the polls putting him ahead of Elizabeth Warren

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

16. Black vote in SC in new Qpac poll:

Link to tweet

[Cha]

17. Kicking!

[SaschaHM]

18. These numbers are one of the reason's I roll my eyes...

over the assumption that black voters will "fall in line" after Iowa.

Why the heck would they do that when even white voters won't/don't? Iowa is going to ultimately be a delegate wash and a week or two of good press before New Hampshire and/or South Carolina changes the narrative.

[Tarheel_Dem]

19. This is the reason I'm not so worried about the competition.

"Because non-whites have been the decisive voting bloc in each of the recent contested Democratic presidential primaries. In 2008, Barack Obama beat Hillary Clinton because of his massive edge over her among black voters. Eight years later, Clinton beat Sanders because she crushed him among African Americans and Hispanics."

[Gothmog]

23. Is Joe Biden actually underrated now?

Link to tweet

Among black voters in the Quinnipiac poll, Biden took 44% to 10% for Sanders and just 8% for Warren. (South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg received less than 1% of the black vote in South Carolina in the new Q poll. Ouch.)

Of the UNF poll, Dr. Michael Binder, faculty director of the Public Opinion Research Lab, said: "Buoyed by his support among African American voters, Biden has an established lead far above the other contenders in South Carolina."

Biden's lasting strength in South Carolina and with black voters is mirrored in his improving performance in national 2020 polling as well. Biden was in danger of losing his edge over Warren in national 2020 surveys as recently as a few weeks ago. Now? He averages more than 7 points over Warren, according to the polling database maintained by Real Clear Politics.

To be clear: Biden is still not where he wants to be in Iowa or New Hampshire. And his fundraising needs to get drastically better. But his continued strength in South Carolina -- and the persistence of support from black voters even amid online predictions of his imminent demise -- suggest that Biden may have more strengths than he is getting credit for at the moment.

[Scurrilous]

20. ...

[Gothmog]

22. According to Nate, there may a number of Southern states where Biden is the only candidate over 15%

Link to tweet

[PhoenixDem]

24. Absolutely

That is how Obama won against well-known and well-liked Hillary Clinton. Of note is the fact that in 2008, Hillary didn't whine and say the election was rigged or the DNC were out to get her or sulk in Chappaqua or asked people to vote third party. As soon as it was mathematically impossible for her to win, she threw her whole weight behind Obama and implored her supporters to vote for him. She is the quintessential Democrat and I salute her.

[TexasTowelie]

27. +1

[ismnotwasm]

28. But did you know Bernie set a new record of 4 million donations?

Or something...

[Gothmog]

30. Biden does best among African American voters

Link to tweet