Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forum*Breaking*: Warren Leads Biden by 7 points in NEW Quinnipiac poll
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/elizabeth-warren-overtakes-joe-biden-in-new-quinnipiac-poll-democratic-field-2020/Man I just love putting in the star thingys around the Breaking. Perhaps I should have put Breaking in all caps?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Alhena
(3,043 posts)Biden up by 15 in one poll, Warren up by 7 in another. WTF?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,420 posts)The randomness of sampling and systematic differences in polling methodology account for such disparities from poll to poll and from pollster to pollster.
538 says that this is actually a good sign that pollsters are not "herding", that is "adjusting", their results to match prevailing opinion.
This is why 538 and other data journalists tell us to look at an average of poll results and not cherry pick single polls.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
DarthDem
(5,346 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
CTyankee
(64,784 posts)the larger the poll, the smaller the MOE.
the smaller the poll, the larger the MOE.
generally speaking and all other things being equal...
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
UncleNoel
(864 posts)All Post-debate#3 Poll Averages: Biden 27, Warren 21, Sanders 17, Buttigieg 7, Harris 5 (Biden +6)
Only ONE has Warren in the lead in all these polls.
Candidates Biden Warren Sanders Buttigieg Harris
RCP Average (rounded) 10/16-22: 27 21 17 7 5 Biden +6
Quinnipiac A- (LV) 10/17-21: 21 28 15 10 5 Warren +7
CNN/SSRS A- (RV) 10/17-20: 34 19 16 6 6 Biden +15
YouGov B (LV) 10/20-22: 24 21 15 8 5 Biden +3
The Hill C+ (RV) 10/21-22: 27 19 14 6 5 Biden +8
Emerson B+ (LV) 10/18-21: 27 21 25 6 5 Biden +2
Morning Consult B- (LV) 10/16-20: 30 21 18 6 6 Biden +9
Ipsos B+ (RV) 10/17-18: 24 17 15 5 4 Biden +7
SUSA A (LV) 10/15-16: 32 22 17 5 7 Biden +10
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,420 posts)That's been heading back down for Joe. That's why it's important to look at the averages of the polls at a reliable tracker and follow the trend lines.
This 27.2% support is lower than Biden was way back on April 25th when he entered the race, he was at 29.3% support then.
People can see this for themselves at RCP:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html
A bright note for Biden has been that Sanders has rebounded since his heartattack and has regained support he lost to Warren, this has allowed Biden to keep a +5.4 lead as Warrens number have gone down as well.
The question I keep asking is why is Biden just at 27.2% despite people posting great polls for Joe. Could it be cherry picking?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
DrToast
(6,414 posts)The differences can't be explained by normal polling variation.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(34,358 posts)Ahead by double digits- national as well as state. Including the CNN poll out yesterday which gave him a 15 pt lead
🚨 Awesome day of polling for Democratic frontrunner @JoeBiden!
National polls
@surveyusa +10
@MorningConsult +9
@Ipsos +7 (+9 over Trump)
Public Religion Research Institute +8
Iowa
@Suffolk_U +1
Minn.
@MasonDixonPoll +12 over Trump
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Bradshaw3
(7,950 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,420 posts)Again, looking at polling averages gives a more realistic view of the polling landscape.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html
Sander's strong performance and vitality at the last debate seems to have rebounded his numbers, apparently at Warren's expense as some Bernie supporters went to her after Sanders' heart attack.
Biden continues to yoyo between 29% and 26% in RCP's polling average and still leads there.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Baclava
(12,047 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Bradshaw3
(7,950 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
jcgoldie
(11,956 posts)I don't think its that rare. I think the models for determining who are likely voters in primary polls diverge an aweful lot.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
ritapria
(1,812 posts)She has dropped by about 4% in all other post debate polls published in the last few days ..Quinnipiac and Monmouth are grossly overrated because "The Numbers s Guy", Mr. Silver, has conferred upon them a rating they do not deserve Suffolk University regularly puts out nonsense . Recently YouGuv claimed Warren was ahead of Biden 36% - 24% ...How do they do that while maintaining a straight face ? ... ..Pay close attention to polls published by Survey USA, WaPo/ ABC News , and Fox News ..That's about it ..
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
jcgoldie
(11,956 posts)The validity of polls should be assessed based on whether we agree with the results. What was Nate Silver thinking!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
HeartlandProgressive
(294 posts)The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts gold standard surveys using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts nationwide surveys and polls in more than a dozen states on national and statewide elections, as well as public policy issues.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
jcgoldie
(11,956 posts)I was replying sarcastically to the occasional habit I see here of disagreeing with polls based on results and not methodology. Thanks for supplying that information.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
bluewater
(5,420 posts)Is it an attempt to manufacture consent?
Manufacturing Consent. Their intentions are to manufacture the consent of the people and make sure that their choices and attitudes are altered in such a way that they will always do what is in the government's best interest, which often is the same interest of corporate companies in America. This is what Chomsky meant by propaganda.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Bradshaw3
(7,950 posts)The attempt to do so only shows in my mind that one's candidate is not as strong as they pretend. Polls are a snapshot in time, just one and only tell part of a story, and this poll is just another element to look at. They certainly do not tell you who will be the eventual nominee, as historical data shows. This poll doesn't mean Warren will be the nominee any more than ones showing Biden ahead mean he will win. But they seem to be useful here for some in trying to declare the race over before voting even begins.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
HeartlandProgressive
(294 posts)The broad brush is an effective rhetorical device, but some explanation of sweeping statements would seem in order, don't you think?
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Celerity
(46,154 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Bradshaw3
(7,950 posts)With not much to back up the claims about polls, data or otherwise.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
LanternWaste
(37,748 posts)That's about it, indeed.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Bhphoto
(45 posts)No doubt.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Aaron Pereira
(383 posts)After starting off at 2% in the polls I do believe she's going to win this thing!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided