*Breaking*: Warren Leads Biden by 7 points in NEW Quinnipiac poll

[Bradshaw3]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/elizabeth-warren-overtakes-joe-biden-in-new-quinnipiac-poll-democratic-field-2020/

Man I just love putting in the star thingys around the Breaking. Perhaps I should have put Breaking in all caps?

[Alhena]

1. What's going on with the polls? This is way beyond normal deviation

Biden up by 15 in one poll, Warren up by 7 in another. WTF?

[bluewater]

3. Such difference between polls are not unusual and actually are a good sign the polls are honest.

The randomness of sampling and systematic differences in polling methodology account for such disparities from poll to poll and from pollster to pollster.

538 says that this is actually a good sign that pollsters are not "herding", that is "adjusting", their results to match prevailing opinion.

This is why 538 and other data journalists tell us to look at an average of poll results and not cherry pick single polls.

[DarthDem]

6. Oh, You're Back!

[CTyankee]

15. I always look at the size of the poll...

the larger the poll, the smaller the MOE.

the smaller the poll, the larger the MOE.

generally speaking and all other things being equal...

[UncleNoel]

24. Yeah, but line it up against ALL the other post 3rd debate and what do you see?

All Post-debate#3 Poll Averages: Biden 27, Warren 21, Sanders 17, Buttigieg 7, Harris 5 (Biden +6)

Only ONE has Warren in the lead in all these polls.

Candidates Biden Warren Sanders Buttigieg Harris
RCP Average (rounded) 10/16-22: 27 21 17 7 5 Biden +6
Quinnipiac A- (LV) 10/17-21: 21 28 15 10 5 Warren +7
CNN/SSRS A- (RV) 10/17-20: 34 19 16 6 6 Biden +15
YouGov B (LV) 10/20-22: 24 21 15 8 5 Biden +3
The Hill C+ (RV) 10/21-22: 27 19 14 6 5 Biden +8
Emerson B+ (LV) 10/18-21: 27 21 25 6 5 Biden +2
Morning Consult B- (LV) 10/16-20: 30 21 18 6 6 Biden +9
Ipsos B+ (RV) 10/17-18: 24 17 15 5 4 Biden +7
SUSA A (LV) 10/15-16: 32 22 17 5 7 Biden +10

[bluewater]

25. We see Biden down to 27.2% support at RCP POLLS

That's been heading back down for Joe. That's why it's important to look at the averages of the polls at a reliable tracker and follow the trend lines.

This 27.2% support is lower than Biden was way back on April 25th when he entered the race, he was at 29.3% support then.

People can see this for themselves at RCP:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

A bright note for Biden has been that Sanders has rebounded since his heartattack and has regained support he lost to Warren, this has allowed Biden to keep a +5.4 lead as Warrens number have gone down as well.

The question I keep asking is why is Biden just at 27.2% despite people posting great polls for Joe. Could it be cherry picking?

[DrToast]

5. Agree...hard to know which to believe

The differences can't be explained by normal polling variation.

[Thekaspervote]

7. Yes indeed... there have been at least 6 new A+ and other polls out this week showing Biden

Ahead by double digits- national as well as state. Including the CNN poll out yesterday which gave him a 15 pt lead

🚨 Awesome day of polling for Democratic frontrunner @JoeBiden!

National polls
@surveyusa +10
@MorningConsult +9
@Ipsos +7 (+9 over Trump)
Public Religion Research Institute +8

Iowa
@Suffolk_U +1

Minn.
@MasonDixonPoll +12 over Trump

[Bradshaw3]

8. Meh

[bluewater]

11. RCP POLLS has Joe at 27.2 % support w a +5.4 lead over Warren

Again, looking at polling averages gives a more realistic view of the polling landscape.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

Sander's strong performance and vitality at the last debate seems to have rebounded his numbers, apparently at Warren's expense as some Bernie supporters went to her after Sanders' heart attack.

Biden continues to yoyo between 29% and 26% in RCP's polling average and still leads there.

[Baclava]

2. Expect a thundering herd of Biden fans telling you what the poll got wrong! n/t

[Bradshaw3]

9. The herd has already shown up

[jcgoldie]

4. Primary polls

I don't think its that rare. I think the models for determining who are likely voters in primary polls diverge an aweful lot.

[ritapria]

10. I believe Quinnipiac has published a pro- Warrenn outlier

She has dropped by about 4% in all other post debate polls published in the last few days …..Quinnipiac and Monmouth are grossly overrated because "The Numbers s Guy", Mr. Silver, has conferred upon them a rating they do not deserve ……Suffolk University regularly puts out nonsense ……. Recently YouGuv claimed Warren was ahead of Biden 36% - 24% ...How do they do that while maintaining a straight face ? ...……..Pay close attention to polls published by Survey USA, WaPo/ ABC News , and Fox News ………..That's about it …..

[jcgoldie]

12. Right!

The validity of polls should be assessed based on whether we agree with the results. What was Nate Silver thinking!

[HeartlandProgressive]

13. Let's look at Quinnipiac's Methodology: random live caller, land lines & cell phones...

From October 17 - 21, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,587 self-identified registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points, including the design effect. The survey includes 713 Democratic voters and independent voters who lean Democratic with a margin of error of +/- 4.6 percentage points, including the design effect.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts gold standard surveys using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts nationwide surveys and polls in more than a dozen states on national and statewide elections, as well as public policy issues.

[jcgoldie]

16. thank you :)

I was replying sarcastically to the occasional habit I see here of disagreeing with polls based on results and not methodology. Thanks for supplying that information.

[bluewater]

17. There's a pattern emerging of people making sweeping statements while presenting no evidence.

Is it an attempt to manufacture consent?

What is the manufacturing of consent?

Manufacturing Consent. Their intentions are to manufacture the consent of the people and make sure that their choices and attitudes are altered in such a way that they will always do what is in the government's best interest, which often is the same interest of corporate companies in America. This is what Chomsky meant by propaganda.

[Bradshaw3]

19. You have nailed it

The attempt to do so only shows in my mind that one's candidate is not as strong as they pretend. Polls are a snapshot in time, just one and only tell part of a story, and this poll is just another element to look at. They certainly do not tell you who will be the eventual nominee, as historical data shows. This poll doesn't mean Warren will be the nominee any more than ones showing Biden ahead mean he will win. But they seem to be useful here for some in trying to declare the race over before voting even begins.

[HeartlandProgressive]

14. I respect people's opinions, but bold declarations should be substantiated, no?

The broad brush is an effective rhetorical device, but some explanation of sweeping statements would seem in order, don't you think?

[Celerity]

23. +10000

[Bradshaw3]

18. I believe your position is anti-Warren

With not much to back up the claims about polls, data or otherwise.

[LanternWaste]

21. Blame the polls, blame the media... but never blame the Sacred Cow.

That's about it, indeed.

[Bhphoto]

20. Good poll for Warren

No doubt.

[Aaron Pereira]

22. Very proud of Warren.

After starting off at 2% in the polls I do believe she's going to win this thing!