G. Elliot Morris: what's the rationale for tracking a poll with only 40 respondents??

[bluewater]

Link to tweet

538 has some 'splaining to do...

538 lists both this Montana poll with 40 TOTAL respondents and the Wyoming poll with, sit down, just 14 respondents TOTAL.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/montana/

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/wyoming/

For the love of god, why?

538 rates this pollster, Montana State University Billings, B+

I hope they update that rating soon.

[ritapria]

1. Why did Nate Silver Post this Trash ?

This is the most embarrassing polling result I've ever read in the last 40 years ….I am shocked that The University of Montana at Billings published this nonsense …..There should be accountability for those responsible for producing this lunacy ...This poll has brought shame on the University of Montana at Billings

[Uncle Joe]

2. That's not a poll,

that's a Tupperware Party.


Thanks for the thread bluewater.

[jcgoldie]

3. Its fucking Montana...

You can't poll cows and dirt ...

[DetlefK]

4. A poll with 40 respondents has a margin of error of 16%. A poll with 14 has an error of 27%.

So, to be precise, the Montana-poll is
Warren 40% +/- 16%
Biden 15% +/- 16%

[dsc]

7. actually you need a sample of 30 for the MOE rule to hold

so you can't even calculate a MOE for the 14 person poll.

[crazytown]

5. "the polls are what the polls are"

[bluewater]

6. lol !!!11!!1!

good one!



That's the genius of my trademarked phrase... it's a double edged rhetorical device. lol

the polls are what the polls are

At least no one is attempting to "unskew" these itsey bitsey polls.

[LanternWaste]

9. Best thing to do is simply ask over and over again.

As researching and tracking down the answers to our own questions really doesn't have quite the dramatic flair that critical thought does, and often denies us the opportunity to color the narrative and editorialize our very 'sincere' concerns.

So yeah... I get it.

[bluewater]

10. Non Sequitur?

Has anyone repeatedly asked why 538 chose to track polls with 40 and 14 total respondents?

I do not believe so...



This definition comes to mind -

A straw man is a common form of argument and is an informal fallacy based on giving the impression of refuting an opponent's argument, while actually refuting an argument that was not presented by that opponent.

[bluewater]

11. Harry Enten comments on this Wyoming Poll

Link to tweet