NEW: A & B-rated October Poll Averages (Top Tier): Biden 28, Warren 22, Sanders 16 (Biden +6)

[UncleNoel]

I have adopted crazytown’s(Warren) suggestion to do only A and B rated (538) polls. Others have suggested eliminating HarrisX. Sinxce thia ia C+ rated poll, it will no longer be considered (along with Change Research, Zogby Analytics, USC Dornsife/LA Times, McLaughlin & Associates, and the D- Survey Donkey. We will also not consider polls that are not rated, such as Civiqs, unless there are some overwhelming factors to consider.

So Biden ranges roughly 25-30, Warren 20-25, and Sanders 15-20

Average 9/26-22: Biden 27.7, Warren 22.0, Sanders 16.4 (Biden +5.7)
NOTE: Similar RCP averages: Biden27.2, Warren21.8, Sanders17.3

YouGov B (LV) 10/20-22: Biden 24(-1), Warren 21(-7), Sanders 15(+2) [Biden +3]
Quinnipiac A- (LV) 10/17-21: Biden 21(-6), Warren 28(-2), Sanders 15(+2) [Warren +7]
CNN/SSRS A- (RV) 10/17-20: Biden 34(+10), Warren 19(+1), Sanders 16(+1) [Biden +15]
Emerson B+ (LV) 10/18-21: Biden 27(+2), Warren 21(+2), Sanders 25(+2) [Biden]
Morning Consult B- (LV) 10/16-20: Biden 30(-2), Warren 21(0), Sanders 18(-3) [Biden +9]
Ipsos B+ (RV) 10/17-18: Biden 24(+3), Warren 17(+2), Sanders 15(0) [Biden +7]
SUSA A (LV) 10/15-16: Biden 32(-1), Warren 22(+3), Sanders 17(0) [Biden +10]
FOX News A (LV) 10/6-8: Biden 32(+3), Warren 22(+6), Sanders 17(-1) [Biden +10]
IBD/TIJPP A- (RV) 9/26-10/3 Biden 26(-2), Warren 27(+3), Sanders 10(-2) [Watren +1]

All pols reach into or are solely in October. FOX and IBD/TIPP are before the October debate. Eliminat them does not change the averages by much since they balance out.
() indicates the +/- from previous poll of any pollster. Some polls are frequent, some occasional. The latter may go back as far as August or September, but at least we get some feeling for the tracking of the polls.
Only the latest of any one poll is given.

Curiously, FOX News and SUSA had the same figures in early October if I am not mistaken.

Source:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/national/

Disclaimer: 538 does not give averages. I have added them. Please let me know if I have inadvertently made any errors.

[Skya Rhen]

1. Thanks for this. No matter how it's sliced, Joe always seems to be the preferred choice by voters.

[UncleNoel]

3. He is certainly mine!

[Peacetrain]

9. An enthusiastic amen to that!!

[peggysue2]

18. And I'll 3rd that in the confidence level that Joe Biden can bring Trump down

A segment of the electorate may hate the electability factor in choosing a nominee but the vast majority want two things: first and foremost the ability to kick Trump and his treacherous enablers to the curb and second restore the country's tattered institutions, reaffirm the rule of law and heal our alliances abroad.

Anything beyond that is icing on the cake. Nothing will be accomplished without the first two. That means nominating someone who will cream Trump in the battleground states, putting the electoral college vote out of the Squatter-in-Chief's reach, and someone who has the experience and knowledge to get the country back on keel. Then and only then can we move forward with all the important issues, be it healthcare, climate change, gun regulation, etc.

Joe Biden can get us there. Which is why I and so many other voters support his run.

Because this isn't an ordinary election. Make no mistake, we're literally fighting for our survival as a democratic Republic. There will be no second chances, no reruns or oops I made a mistake. 2020 is it. For everyone.

AGO4JOE2020

[Funtatlaguy]

2. I'm hoping for a small December debate stage.

Looks like probably 9-10 in November debate but maybe only 5-7 for December.
The smaller the better as far as I’m concerned.
I think most Dem primary voters that care in the early states have settled on a small list that they are considering.
Selfishly, I want to see Warren, Biden, Sanders, Harris, and Buttigieg only in December.
They are the five that I feel (in my little southern white male liberal tree loving pea picking heart) have a realistic shot at the nomination.

[UncleNoel]

4. I like your list of The Five topnotch candidates

I still would like the Biden/Harris ticket. Since I like Warren, I wouldn't mind (pardon the rash presumption, lol!) a Biden/Warren ticket, but Warren would need some nuanced moves to the center that might be unlikely.

Warren needs work on the minority votes and Joe could do some good with the younger set, though Warren and Sanders seem to have them pretty well in their corner.

[Funtatlaguy]

5. My tickets would be: Biden/Harris or Abrams, Warren/Booker or Beto

[UncleTomsEvilBrother]

6. Interesting

While I totally would trust Joe as POTUS and would vote for him easily in a GE, there's a reason he loses in the primary every, single time.

I think he is smart, has a pretty quick wit, and would make sound decisions both home and abroad, but...

a)He is not the best on the debate stage. If he weren't the frontrunner, he would disappear during some of those heated exchanges. (TBH, he does that already).

b)On the campaign stomp, he comes off as a bit edgier than I think he should.


If he wins the primary, he is going to have to have some bright, charismatic people around him. He has the Black female vote, and I think he can pick off a state like GA or NC with it if he shows up, and says nothing but, "Health Care Reform."

Black women are the heart of the DEM voting base, and their most important issue is Health Care Reform. Joe (and all other candidates) need to know that.

[UncleNoel]

10. I think he is better at debating GOPers than his own Dem candidates, fewer of the latter

might be better for him than such a large field. He hates battling his own.

[Skya Rhen]

15. Totally agree.

[colsohlibgal]

7. I Am More In Tune With Bernie But.....

Both he and Joe are such a risk age wise, IMHO they are just too elderly. Warren is no Spring Chicken But...if she were elected and got 2 terms she would then be just about the age of Joe and Bernie now at the end.

So I support Warren but part of me thinks it is time to turn to a new generation.....and I’m a Boomer Gal.

[ananda]

8. I hear you.

Also a boomer. I feel as though my generation has really
let down young people, leaving them to deal with an
extremely dystopian world.

Let them take over and fix it!

[UncleNoel]

11. I know what you mean. I'm an old guy (84) but would like a younger person

Just can't see anyone up to it as well as Joe or Liz. I would have gone for Harris, but I don't think she can climb back. She would be a good backup as VP in case, hou know...

[crazytown]

12. Thank you for this Noel,

much appreciated!

[UncleNoel]

14. You are welcome!

[Thekaspervote]

13. Thx... Joe Biden's demise, be it not enough money, crowd size, the front runner from the beginning

All seem to be overrated.

There’s a reason he’s doing well, whether one counts just A or B rated polls (those that are rated lower, for those that do not know are weighted, or carry less influence in the overall picture) or one looks at all the polls, and that’s because so far voters feel he’s the one that can best get us out of it mess.

There’s absolutely no question as to whether he can send dotard packing, he can and he will.

[Scurrilous]

16. K&R

[Tarheel_Dem]

17. K&R

[Cha]

19. KR!

[Gothmog]

20. This makes me smile

Link to tweet

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